MLB POTD #1 | (8/8) ⚾️
Gavin Williams "O" 7.5 K's 🎯
Williams' swing-and-miss rate against tonight's arsenal sits at 14.8%, and the model projects 9.42 strikeouts against this 7.5 line. 🎯
Recent form has been strong: 🔥
◦ Cleared 7.5 strikeouts in 5 of his last 10 starts
◦ Averaging 10.0 Ks over his last 5 outings (10, 12, 11, 11, 11)
◦ His last five starts have all landed double digits, a real hot stretch
Workload profile: 💪
◦ 23 starts, 139.0 innings this season, a full workload
◦ Season K/9 sits at 11.53, elite territory
◦ His strikeout rate over his last five starts is running well above his season average
His underlying profile continues to support the over: 📊
◦ WHIP sits at 1.040
◦ Opponents are hitting just .209 against him this season
◦ FIP (3.40) tracks closely with his ERA (3.56), a legitimate performance, not a lucky one
Five straight double-digit strikeout starts against an elite whiff rate makes this 7.5 line look like it hasn't caught up to where Williams' stuff actually is right now. 🔥
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Chase Burns Over 6 Strikeouts (POTD)
- 6+ Ks in 15/21 starts this season
- 7+ Ks in 2/2 vs WSH last season
The Nats have struggled a bit over the L15 ranking 17th in K% vs RHP. Good pitch mix matchup as the Nats hold +30% whiff rates against the Slider which Burns throws 38% of the time as his secondary pitch. Good path to 6+ again if his command is sharp!
❤️ IF YOUR TAILING!
Drew Rasmussen “O” 5.5 Ks
#RaysUp
Collab w/ @KashyLocks 🤝
•Seattle has been a solid matchup to target for Ks against righties. They’re striking out 22.6% of the time vs RHP this season.
•We’ve already seen several right-handed pitchers get 6+ Ks against this Mariners lineup recently:
Sasaki — 7 Ks
Rocker — 7 Ks
Eovaldi — 8 Ks
Singer — 6 Ks
•Rasmussen is coming off a 10-strikeout game, so the swing-and-miss stuff is definitely there right now.
•His line is only 5.5, so we just need 6.
With Seattle giving righties opportunities for Ks and Rasmussen coming off one of his best strikeout performances, I like him to keep it rolling here.