Today, the Sahm Rule has been triggered. Outside of Covid, here's when it was last triggered:
✅ June 2001. Stock market bottomed 15-20 months later.
✅ April 2008. The #stockmarket bottomed 10 months later.
alts are in a few different spots atm, solana led for most alts since last October & is one of the only in the top 100 substantially green against BTC
for SOL, the march lows are still intact, so can make argument for consolidation sideways before more continued upside if those hold on retest similar to BTC holding range
issue with most alts is that they have actually underperformed BTC & have much worse charts, theres two main ones
1) alts that did ok but not great, the ones that are currently breaking beneath their March lows could be in bad spot because they are breaking multi month consolidation to downside, especially if these are not wicks below before reclaims, which would mean that this is beginning of interim bearish trend, problem with these is that bitcoin hasnt even retested 58-60k range lows yet, so what happens if we get that selloff, & worse what happens if we get below 58k, seems unlikely to me that these alts do well
2) group of major alts from last cycle, some have VC unlocks & other issues, but a ton are lacking narratives to drive positive price action, for Solana it has clearly been the chain for retail while there has not been that much comparable activity on other chains yet, anyway, a lot of this basket of alts havent even broke out from their bear market range highs yet - can look at AAVE & UNI charts for reference, these altbtc pairs are even more hammered & am not sure what would drive them to do well over newer coins w/ more interest & attention unless there's some significant shift in fundamentals, a lot of alts just fail to continuously make higher highs against btc cycle after cycle, crypto is so early that a lot of the experimentation with these protocols gets overpriced during their first speculative bull markets & then mean revert
but yea the alts that havent even broken out of bear market ranges I cant see outperforming soon either
ETH ETF I dont have all that strong of opinion on, still think ppl got ahead of themselves with positioning & a lot of the new longs OI is currently unwinding
if we get extended sideways seems bad for most alts, most memes hilariously still have best looking charts
Treasury Buybacks are here!🔥
The US Treasury using cash from bond sales or the TGA, will be buying back bonds in the secondary market via primary dealers to improve liquidity and artificially suppress yields.
Fed QE 🤝 Treasury QE
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Donald Trump says "I will keep Elizabeth Warren and her goons away from your #Bitcoin
And I will never allow the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)"
10 day check-in. to hold myself accountable:
am still not back to an appropriate depth and command of product yet
stuff I'm excited about though:
-ODK: The best way to build and monetize a 3D game or social experience in crypto
-Project Dragon: Thousands shooting each other in the world's most absurd team fight game. Built with the same toolset we're making available with the ODK.
-Other brand expressions on Otherside via the ODK
-ApeFest: Thousands of apes from 56 countries converging on a 15th century monastery. Real cult shit.
-The best ApeFest merch drop yet, with some nice anti-FUD measures built in to avoid lines and people not getting what they want.
-Exploring BAYC reach with other physical goods.
-Dookey Dash: Yuga in your pocket, complete with a mode so simple your mom can play. (And a tournament so hardcore only the best will compete for the 1m prize)
-A partnership to extend the degen factor of Dragon and basically any other game we want.
-And yes the team has been working on clubhouse.
In 2019, #ETH / #BTC topped and started to bleed but #ALT / #BTC pairs kept going up for a few weeks before following ETH’s lead.
Just because your ALT might be doing better than ETH right now, does not mean it won’t follow ETH’s lead.
ETH/BTC going down is a bad omen for ALTs
OTHERSIDE TOWN HALL RECAP [long af sry]🧵
First time for this new town hall format and over 1.2k of you crammed in at the last minute. Hell yeah. Thank you.
gm, really tough day today. I am hellbent on transforming yuga and getting us back to our roots, and that means making hard decisions. by far the hardest is saying goodbye to some talented team members. here was my message to the team this morning.
Today, Consensys filed a lawsuit against the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The goal behind this is to ensure that Ethereum remains a vibrant and indispensable blockchain platform and to preserve access for the countless developers, market participants, and institutions who have a stake in the world’s second largest blockchain.
#ETHforAll
1/6
#ETH / #BTC has fallen!
We now officially have a weekly close below the June 2022 low.
Potential bottom of #ETH / #BTC this summer after being in a bear market since Nov 2021.
Timing can change, but the last 2 times this happened, the final capitulation process took 2-3 months
Last cycle, we saw #ETH / #BTC bottom just after the 1st rate cut. Before the 1st rate cut, ETH/BTC broke support, dropped for 2 months straight, then bottomed.
Timing of ETH/BTC bottom might be this summer.
Every saturday morning for the last 6 years, I watch this obscure video.
It's Jeff Bezos talking about leadership, but really, it's the most succinct blueprint for how to achieve greatness I have ever found.
You should watch it often, but I summarized it here: (thread, sry)
Sigh... again with the ETH misinformation as we await a decision on ETH ETPs. Ok--let’s talk about some basic facts about Ethereum. Millions of Americans hold ETH; it has been vital to crypto since its 2015 launch; and ETH is a commodity, not a security. 1/10
In the near future, if you have the opportunity to secure your future, do it.
It might feel as if that means making less gain (temporarily) going forward. And that’s partially true.
But securing your future unlocks a super power within you.