Be on the lookout.
I’m mainly focused on commodities, but I’m not blind to what’s happening elsewhere.
Working on a paid-subscriber-only deep dive covering my best-of-the-best watchlist across:
- AI semiconductors / advanced packaging-
- Space infrastructure
- Defense / drones / autonomy
- Cybersecurity / AI security
Full research + charts + levels
This one is for paid subscribers only.
One good chart from this list could easily pay for a year of subscription.
Subscribe here 👇
https://t.co/0t7lRkdl25
$SILVER final warning from my side.
Are you going to let silver permabulls - many of whom have been wrong at exactly the wrong moments - dictate your investments?
Or are you going to let price decide?
Not me.
Price.
I’m just showing the chart.
The daily channel is breaking.
The short-term support is being lost.
If silver confirms below this area today / tomorrow, and most importantly: by the end of the week; the next levels become very clear:
- First: horizontal support around the mid-50s.
- Then: the 2022 uptrend support.
- Below that: the larger 2020 channel target.
No emotion. No silver cult. No ego.
If this breakdown fails, fine; we reassess.
But if it confirms, do not act surprised later.
Price is talking. Most people just don’t want to listen...
Honest question: how is $SILVER × #OIL even a useful relative-strength chart?
If the goal is to understand whether silver or oil is likely to outperform, wouldn’t you divide one by the other instead? A ratio actually tells you relative strength. Multiplying them mostly gives you a combined nominal price basket, where both assets can distort the signal.
It feels a bit like multiplying your car speed by the outside temperature and then using that chart to decide whether the engine or the weather is more important. The line might trend, but what exactly is it measuring?
$SILVER
I was long silver in the single digits.
I was long gold in the three digits.
I have been covering this move higher for a long time.
But when it mattered most, the roadmap has been very clear:
SILJ / bullion top called to the day: ✅
Full roadmap from flush → 85–95 → 65–72: ✅
Silver interim top at 93–94: ✅
Caution again around 89 despite a lot of heat: ✅
Long again around 61: ✅
Bear flag at 82–83: ✅
Green-light after the reclaim / bounce setup: ✅
Second bear flag warning: ✅
Breakdown risk after that: ❌
Daily high around 87.50 called almost to the cent: ✅
I’m not saying every call is perfect. Nobody does that..
But I genuinely have not seen any silver roadmaps track this move with that level of precision.
The latest Substack is out now.
And if you want the bigger roadmap moving forward, check the Substack from mid-last week. That is still the main framework I’m working from.
https://t.co/0t7lRkdl25
$SILVER final warning from my side.
Are you going to let silver permabulls - many of whom have been wrong at exactly the wrong moments - dictate your investments?
Or are you going to let price decide?
Not me.
Price.
I’m just showing the chart.
The daily channel is breaking.
The short-term support is being lost.
If silver confirms below this area today / tomorrow, and most importantly: by the end of the week; the next levels become very clear:
- First: horizontal support around the mid-50s.
- Then: the 2022 uptrend support.
- Below that: the larger 2020 channel target.
No emotion. No silver cult. No ego.
If this breakdown fails, fine; we reassess.
But if it confirms, do not act surprised later.
Price is talking. Most people just don’t want to listen...
$GOLD / $SILVER
Respectfully disagree with your read here.
I think the weekly chart is the cleaner structure.
On the daily, you can force a triangle, but on the weekly you can clearly see the impulsive move up first, followed by compression. That makes this look much more like a continuation triangle than a random sideways consolidation.
Also important: we already had the weekly breakout signal earlier, which many seem to be ignoring.
#GSR $GOLD / $SILVER I’ve been calling this (62) level for weeks.
My man @uselinkinv was looking for #GSR to break down, and this is not a bash at all.. I actually respect him for adjusting his bias as the chart evolved. He was initially very clear about the potential #GSR breakdown / $SILVER outperformance setup 👇
But this is also a good example of the broader point.
95% of FinTwit was looking for $SILVER to outperform $GOLD. I was pointing out the opposite: not only that silver was unlikely to outperform, but also the exact roadmap - including the weekly breakout back in mid-March, the measured-move targets, and the fake daily breakdown that I held my ground on.
That fakeout turned out to be the tell...
The crowd was focused on the silver story.
The setup was already showing something else.
No need to overcomplicate it...
@tiefighter19921@NamelessTh51811 One last time...
Price already reflects narrative, positioning, liquidity, leverage, fear, greed, macro expectations, and what people are actually doing with real money.
News is usually just the headline people attach AFTER the move starts.
$SILVER
I was long silver in the single digits.
I was long gold in the three digits.
I have been covering this move higher for a long time.
But when it mattered most, the roadmap has been very clear:
SILJ / bullion top called to the day: ✅
Full roadmap from flush → 85–95 → 65–72: ✅
Silver interim top at 93–94: ✅
Caution again around 89 despite a lot of heat: ✅
Long again around 61: ✅
Bear flag at 82–83: ✅
Green-light after the reclaim / bounce setup: ✅
Second bear flag warning: ✅
Breakdown risk after that: ❌
Daily high around 87.50 called almost to the cent: ✅
I’m not saying every call is perfect. Nobody does that..
But I genuinely have not seen any silver roadmaps track this move with that level of precision.
The latest Substack is out now.
And if you want the bigger roadmap moving forward, check the Substack from mid-last week. That is still the main framework I’m working from.
https://t.co/0t7lRkdl25
$HL
Hecla breaking down from the bear flag formation here.
I’ve been adding / pressing the short near the top of that range, partly via the $SILJ short, and this still has a long way to go before I’d even consider it a buy again.
Reminder: I was flagging this as a short around the $25 area...
“Structure follows the news.”
That is exactly the kind of dumb retail assumption that gets people trapped...
I posted this setup before the move happened. The structure was already warning that downside risk was building.. the news just gave people the excuse after the fact.
Price first.
Narrative later.
Quick heads-up: the $GOLD / $SILVER ratio has been building a 2+ week bull flag here.
If this bursts higher and clears the yellow trendline around 61.50–62, the move could accelerate.. which would put pressure on $SILVER on a relative basis.
$PLATINUM
As mentioned a few times: there is nothing bullish about this chart.
And yes, it looks very similar to $SILVER
Our $PPLT puts are printing nicely, alongside a few other precious-metals-related shorts.
Platinum is now breaking down hard on the daily, and the measured move points straight toward the $1,500–$1,600 zone as my short/mid-term target.
Could it go lower? Absolutely.
But for now, that is the area I’m watching for now..
$SILVER
“As far as I can tell, only myself and Michael Oliver understand what is going on in the metals market.”
Then came the $500 silver within 6–8 months call.
I’m bullish metals longer term, but there’s a difference between a secular bull thesis and throwing fantasy targets at a chart for engagement farming...
That one is aging like horrible 🍷
As far as I can tell only myself and Michael Oliver understand what is going on in the metals market. I'm sure there are a few others I just haven't seen them.
Metals have completed the first part of the bubble phase of a very mature (26 year) secular bull market. This correction should be recovered quickly. When it does that will bring in the general public, and that is what drives the second part of the bubble phase.
The fact that the corrective phase separating the first part from the second part wasn't allowed to play out naturally just guarantees the final top will be even higher.
Friday's attack to rescue the banks from their short positions has significantly increased the odds that we could see my upper target level of $500, and do so within the next 6-8 months.
The gains made during this first part have been mind blowing, but you haven't seen anything yet.