Edgar Rodriguez

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Bitcoin — Daily

Yesterday's turn-up stalled — still capped by the MAs, rolling over. If oscillators roll, it may retest the last low. Bottoming is a process. What I want: a lower low in price + higher low in oscillators = positive divergence. #bitcoin

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Month-end — and the enforcer fired

The 10Y broke out above 4.70%, through its downtrend line. Bond vigilantes are back. Meanwhile stocks only bounced into resistance — Nasdaq, S&P, Russell all capped by converging MAs firing sell-crosses. Yields up + equities capped = high risk

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Bitcoin — Daily

While stocks fight yields, BTC is doing its own thing — showing life. Still below the 50-day, but oscillators turning up and eyeing another run at the swing high. Reclaim the 50-day to confirm. Relative strength worth noting.

Not advice.

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Why stocks sold off:
The 10Y is coiling in a triangle since 2024, pressing toward 5%; the 30Y is at 2007 highs. Higher yields force equities to revalue — hardest on tech. Nasdaq broke worst, S&P backtesting its break, Russell under its 50-day. Yields break out = bounce fail.

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Equity futures — Daily · Fed Day
Everything's taking out yesterday's lows. Nasdaq leading down, S&P back below its triangle, Russell lost 2,936. Tell: even the Dow — yesterday's refuge — is down the most, which argues broad de-risk, not rotation. But it's pre-Fed. #FedDay

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Bitcoin Futures — Daily

While stocks sell off, BTC is doing its own thing — still bouncing between the MAs. Indecision: either the market's undecided or it's coiling for the next leg up. Fed decision later today keeps it noisy. Wait for the resolution.

Not advice. #Bitcoin

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

S&P Equal-Weight (RSP)

This morning I said it's a rotation, not a selloff. Now RSP is breaking out to a new high while the Nasdaq stays heavy — the average stock leading, capital moving within the market, not out. Needs to hold into the close to confirm.

#marketrotation

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Equity futures — Daily

Not one market — a rotation. Nasdaq weakest (semis hammered), S&P cushioned by financials/energy, Russell at last support, Dow strongest (price-weighted). Rotation alive while Dow holds & Russell defends. Both crack = broad selloff.

Not advice. #equities

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Bitcoin Futures — Daily

Rejected the MAs, rolling over. MACD bearish cross, RSI breaking its uptrend line (RSI often leads price). Bearish — but a lower low under 293.294 with a higher oscillator low = positive divergence that flips it constructive.

Not advice. #bitcoin

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Equities — Daily

Green on the surface, heavy underneath. S&P retreating post-backtest, Nasdaq weakest (momentum at new lows), midcaps & Russell fading too. But it's day two at Friday's support and price hasn't broken it. Close below the lows = bears win. Hold = floor builds.

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Bitcoin — Daily

Broke its short-term uptrend line and now backtesting it from below — still under the MAs and 65,555/67,253. Bearish until it clears the 67,253 swing high. Reclaim the line and MAs to reconsider; below them, patience.

Educational, not advice.
#bitcoin

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Equity futures — Daily

Closed red but off the lows into the weekly close. S&P weakest (lost its 50-day), Nasdaq on May support, Russell strongest (held the 50-day, bounced). First test of support, and it's being defended. Hold into the close = I shift to neutral. Lose it = lower

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Bitcoin — Daily

Back below the 50-day but holding the short-term uptrend line, with the faster MAs trying to cross up. Coiling for another run at 67,253 — but the more it fails there, the more bearish it gets. No bullish call until it clears the high. Patience.
Not advice.

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Bitcoin — Daily

Rolling over but still above the moving average — sometimes it rests here before it can push through resistance. Note: it fell with stocks yesterday, so the decoupling idea is on hold. Hold the MA = rest. Lose it = rolling over with equities.

Not advice.

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Equity futures — Daily

Bears in control — Nasdaq rolling, S&P & Russell selling. But all three are hitting their 50-day together, the first spot a downtrend usually bounces. Break & fail to reclaim = next leg lower. Hold & reclaim = I turn neutral. Naming the level, not guessing

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Crypto — Daily + Total Cap
BTC pulled back below 67,253 without tagging it, −1% with the stock selloff — tests the decoupling. But the Total Market Cap (weekly) shows positive convergence = base building underneath. Slow signal bullish, but it needs to clear 67,253. #bitcoin

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Equity futures — Daily

Yesterday green, and I said wait for the close. Today it faded: Nasdaq's backtest rolled over, S&P turned at its MA, Dow broke its uptrend line, Russell was a bull trap. All four rolling, momentum down. Failed retest, not a reclaim. Base case stays lower.

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Equity futures — Daily

Green this AM, but I'm watching the close, not the pop. S&P bouncing on 7,491 support yet fading; Nasdaq backtesting the broken triangle (day 3 = textbook); Russell by a thread; Dow broke its uptrend line. Close red = bears in control. Reclaim = bullish

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Bitcoin — Daily

Zoom in: cleared 65,555 & the 50-day, heading to test the 67,253 swing high — and it's holding up while stocks wobble. Zoom out: still under the downtrend line & the 200-day. Real progress, not a breakout yet. Near-term bullish, respect the overhead.

Not advice.

[Edgar Rodriguez @D_Analysis19]

Equities — Daily

This morning I warned it all hinged on the backtest. This afternoon after the close, it failed: QQQ & IWM backtested and got rejected, RSP broke its wedge. SPY is the last one in its pattern, and weak. Base case lower — but if SPY reclaims, bear trap. Not advice