Daniel Stow

A place for me to jot down my personal macro financial thoughts and opinions. By no means advice.

[Jan Nieuwenhuijs @JanGold_]

Me, Dec ‘24: “The Chinese central bank is currently buying at least ten times more gold than what you read in the newspaper”

Newspaper (FT), Nov ‘25: “China’s unreported gold purchases could be more than 10 times its official figures.”

https://t.co/6fskiCePJq

https://t.co/51CaC6d5Bh

[Luke Gromen @LukeGromen]

Anything @Myrmikan writes is automatically “must read” for me.

This is “must MUST read” 👇

[Daniel Stow @D_Stow]

Bold statement

[George Noble @gnoble79]

TRUTH.
Dr Anas is a lying fraud.

[Daniel Stow @D_Stow]

Huge

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

America's electricity generation has been roughly flat since the mid-2000s, while China’s has more than quadrupled.

[Daniel Stow @D_Stow]

We can hope!

[Barchart @Barchart]

Gold is coiling and getting ready for a big move 🚨 🚨 Bollinger Bands are now the tightest since August 2025, right before Gold soared 60% over the next 5 months 🚀 🥳

[Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" @LawrenceLepard]

Signpost. @LukeGromen
Add in Bessent recent comments…..

[Gold Telegraph ⚡ @GoldTelegraph_]

GOLD TELEGRAPH CONVERSATION 16:
FRANK GIUSTRA

"This is not a normal bull market. We are going through a structural change in the global monetary system."

In this discussion, Frank breaks down why he believes we are witnessing the biggest structural shift in the global monetary system in generations, why central banks continue accumulating gold, how de-dollarization is reshaping global finance, and why he believes the coming decade will belong to hard assets.

Frank Giustra is the Founder and Chairman of Fiore Group and one of the mining industry's most successful entrepreneurs and investors.

Thank you for joining me, Frank. @Frank_Giustra

TIMESTAMPS:

(00:00) – On Argentina, Hyperinflation & Lessons That Changed His Life

(08:24) – Why 1971 Changed the World Forever

(15:21) – The Biggest Consequences of Leaving the Gold Standard

(22:02) – Are Central Banks Solving Problems or Just Delaying the Inevitable?

(25:47) – Why Central Banks Are Buying Gold at Record Levels

(29:02) – Does China Secretly Own More Gold Than the United States?

(29:47) – Will We Ever See a Fort Knox Audit?

(33:35) – China, De-Dollarization & The New Global Order

(37:16) – The Petrodollar System Explained

(41:28) – BRICS, Gold & The Future of Global Trade

(46:32) – Why Gold Still Matters More Than Ever

(49:49) – The Rise of Hard Assets

(53:31) – Why This Commodity Cycle Is Different

(55:14) – Bullish Copper Thesis

(01:00:54) – Are We Entering a Copper Supercycle?

(01:01:42) – Greatest Achievement

(01:04:52) – What Most Investors Still Don't Understand

[Daniel Stow @D_Stow]

Not great.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

JUST IN: Gold erases all its gains YTD

[Rohit @heyrohitai]

🚨 Anthropic just showed a 27-minute workshop on how to actually do prompts for Claude.

Taught by the people who built it.

Free. No registration. No paywall.

I've seen $300 courses that don't cover what they teach in the first 8 minutes.

Watch it and bookmark it now.

[wealthmoose @wealthmoose]

🚨 Bank of Canada just flagged something serious. 🇨🇦

Hedge funds are buying
40-50% of ALL new Canadian government debt.

With short-term borrowed money.

If those loans get called:

📍 Fire sale on Canadian bonds 📉
📍 Interest rates spike 📈
📍 Government borrowing costs
explode 💸
📍 Mortgage rates surge 🏠
📍 Widespread job losses 👷

Canada is planning to borrow to $2.9 Trillion by 2030.

Nearly half of every new dollar borrowed is held by leveraged hedge funds.

That’s not a foundation.

That’s a trap door. 🇨🇦

#CdnPoli #BankOfCanada
#MarkCarney #Debt #Bond

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

BREAKING: Half of planned US data center builds have been delayed or canceled

[Rick Rule @RealRickRule]

Loving it! Just in time for the Rule Classroom, Copper Bootcamp

[Daniel Stow @D_Stow]

Seems to make sense!

[George Noble @gnoble79]

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ JUST HANDED YOU THE TRADE OF THE DECADE

And most investors are looking in completely the wrong direction.

Brent crude closed above $103 on Friday. Up nearly 40% since the strikes began on February 28.

The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut down. Insurance companies have canceled war risk coverage. Over 150 ships are stranded. Tanker traffic has collapsed to near zero.

The IEA just called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. Nearly 20 million barrels per day of crude and product flows have been choked off.

The US is scrambling. The IEA coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest such action ever. Trump ordered emergency insurance for tankers. The Navy was told to begin escort operations.

But behind closed doors, Navy officials told tanker executives there's currently NO availability for escorts. And no guarantees there will be.

Iran holds the upper hand. And the market knows it.

But here's why this matters far beyond the oil price:

What we're witnessing is the EMification of America in real time.

The US launched strikes in the middle of nuclear negotiations. The executive branch has been attacking central bank independence. Budget deficits are running at levels historically associated with emerging market economies.

Erratic policymaking. Massive fiscal deficits. Judicial interference with monetary policy.

These are EMERGING MARKET characteristics, and yet the US equity market still carries a premium developed market valuation.

That premium is evaporating.

Emerging markets returned 33% in 2025. The S&P 500 returned 17%. Almost DOUBLE the outperformance. And 2026 is accelerating the trend.

Here's what the consensus is missing: EM macro is BETTER than developed market macro right now.

Budget deficits as a percent of GDP? Lower in EM. Debt levels? Lower. Inflation? Lower. Forecasted earnings growth? HIGHER.

EM earnings are expected to grow 21% to 29% this year versus 13% to 14% for the U.S.

Brazilian equities are trading at roughly 9 times CAPE earnings. About HALF where they traded during the last EM rally in 2018.

And the positioning is absurd:

US institutional investors have essentially not owned China since Trump 1.0. Most portfolio managers working today weren't even in the business the last time EM led, which was 2001 to 2008.

Everyone is out of position.

Now layer in commodities:

The digital eats the physical. Without copper, silicon, aluminum, and power, there IS no AI. Full stop.

And fossil fuels and renewables are rallying AT THE SAME TIME. That tells you the world has a massive power demand problem that isn't going away.

Oil above $100. Gold above $4,600. Silver above $85. Copper near all-time highs.

The commodity super-cycle is confirming itself in real time. The Iran conflict just poured gasoline on it.

Now here's the setup:

Emerging market equities, China and Latin America in particular.

Commodities across the board.

Energy, industrial metals, precious metals.

And what to avoid? Long-duration developed market sovereign debt. Overweight positions in the Mag 7, priced for a world where everything goes right and nothing disrupts the AI spending fantasy.

Leadership batons in global markets shift in multi-year cycles.

The US led from 2009 through 2024. 15 years.

Now we're in the early innings of a multi-year rotation into emerging markets and commodities.

The flows follow the performance. The performance follows the earnings. And the earnings are now better in EM than in the US.

At a fraction of the valuation. With better macro fundamentals. And almost nobody owns it.

This is the trade.

[Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta]

Plenty of dollar bulls resurfacing over the past couple of days.

I remain highly convicted that the broader downtrend in the US dollar is just getting started.

What we’re seeing now looks more like a classic retest of a broken support level that is likely to turn into major resistance.

In my view, this rally is likely to be short-lived.

Much like gold at times, this is a volatility event within a much larger structural trend.

Here is a more in-depth analysis of this:

https://t.co/EEei30uta0

[Ronnie Stoeferle @RonStoeferle]

Is that really true?

"Poland today has more tanks than Germany, France and the United Kingdom combined — and this numerical advantage will only keep increasing in the coming years." Poland's Deputy Prime Minister, Radosław Sikorski

[Daniel Stow @D_Stow]

Interesting

[Barchart @Barchart]

BREAKING 🚨: Bitcoin

$BTC hit an Extreme Fear reading of 5 yesterday, the most amount of Fear it has ever recorded 👻😱👀

[Daniel Stow @D_Stow]

Radical idea 💡

[Rick Rule @RealRickRule]

Sir, the most efficient way to leave people more in their bank account is to take less out of their paychecks!
Canadians, please comment below, help your prime minister!

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Gold is up 88% since @KeithMcCullough went long back on February 28, 2025.

[Daniel Stow @D_Stow]

@TaviCosta Is it https://t.co/486nNHrZTi ?

[Daniel Stow @D_Stow]

Agreed.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

Embrace the uncertainty