Toaster

I love social democracy, sports, and making election-related content on YouTube. 350+ subs and 30k+ views

[Toaster @DaMapperToaster]

If you’re a Democratic legislator who is against retaliation, you have no place in the party

[Polling USA @USA_Polling]

The proposed Texas map is insane

If they go through with this, Democrats should absolutely retaliate in blue states

[Hunter📈🌈📊 @StatisticUrban]

Florida’s population boom looks done.

The Census data released in March shows net domestic migration collapsing 93% since 2022, from +310,892 to just +22,517 in 2025. And in this dataset, Tampa, Orlando, and Miami are all now shrinking.

Housing costs seem to finally be biting.

[Anthony Emerson❤️🌲🦞🇾🇪🌹 @AnthonyMEmerson]

Think about everything that’s happened since Mainers last had a chance to vote for Susan Collins:

January 6th
Trump’s convictions
Trump’s re-election
Gaza genocide
Iran war
Big Beautiful Bill
Alex Pretti and Renee Good
Dismantling of the VRA

[Stephen Neukam @stephen_neukam]

NEWS — Ken Paxton’s impeachment defense lawyer is endorsing Democrats James Talarico for Senate, @NOTUSreports scoops

Dan Cogdell, who represented Paxton in his 2023 impeachment trial and several personal cases, told NOTUS in a statement that Paxton “has lost sight of his core mission”

Cogdell is well-connected in Texas GOP politics, and has represented top state party officials. He donated $6,500 to Paxton’s campaign, contributing as recently as last year

But he’s been critical of Trump. A clip of him calling Trump the “greatest threat” to democracy was even turned into an NRSC attack ad last year. It’s been scrubbed from the web.

Talarico said in statement “if you voted for John Cornyn, you have a place in this campaign.”

More:

https://t.co/9AtzdRvg4N

[Prem Thakker @prem_thakker]

Just hours ago, Trump said he was gonna call Netanyahu to tell him not to attack lran. “I call all the shots. Netanyahu doesn't,” he says.
And now, Israel just attacked Iran.
So Trump was either blatantly lying to you on behalf of Israel, or he’s letting Israel walk all over him.

[Joe Scarborough @ScarboroughNow]

When Democrats tried in 2020 to get Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin to count early votes early—like Florida—Republicans killed the bills so Trump could win day-of-voting tallies and try to throw out mail in ballots. It’s a scam for people Trump thinks are stupid.

[Toaster @DaMapperToaster]

Yeah it’s over Steyerbros

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Los Angeles County 6/7 Drop

Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes)
🔵 Xavier Becerra – 42,385 (36.0%, +7.1%)
🔵 Tom Steyer – 36,776 (31.3%, +9.0%)
🔴 Steve Hilton – 17,311 (14.7%, -8.5%)
🔴 Chad Bianco – 5,208 (4.4%, -3.1%)

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

VoteHub projects Nithya Raman to advance from the Nonpartisan primary for Los Angeles Mayor.

[Noah Wilson @noahwilsoncares]

This is the kind of stat ESPN pulls when two abysmal teams are playing on prime time

[chiky handler @chiky_handlr]

Hunter Biden on Zohran Mamdani's leadership: "I look at someone like Mayor Mamdani, and I'm absolutely inspired-not only by the way he won, but by the way he's leading now."

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Democrats get locked out in #CA40

DDHQ projects Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) and Rep. Young Kim (R-CA) will advance to the general election in California’s 40th congressional district

(Trump +12 | 2024)

[Hunter📈🌈📊 @StatisticUrban]

It's basically over for Steyer, I think. Not totally impossible yet, but he would need dramatic improvements that he just isn't seeing in these latest results.

Single digit odds.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Santa Clara County 6/6 Drop

Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes)
🔵 Xavier Becerra – 10,554 (33.5%, +4.7%)
🔵 Tom Steyer – 9,875 (31.3%, +10.6%)
🔴 Steve Hilton – 5,368 (17.0%, -7.2%)
🔴 Chad Bianco – 976 (3.1%, -2.3%)

[Toaster @DaMapperToaster]

Better for Steyer in Orange County compared to yesterday’s drop, but I don’t think this is gonna be enough

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Orange County 6/6 Drop

Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes)
🔴 Steve Hilton – 16,232 (31.2%, -6.5%)
🔵 Xavier Becerra – 14,800 (28.4%, +6.7%)
🔵 Tom Steyer – 11,170 (21.5%, +5.9%)
🔴 Chad Bianco – 4,238 (8.1%, -3.0%)

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

Raman needed to beat Pratt by 8.7 points in the remaining vote today. Instead, she won this drop by 22.5 points, and it was a large batch.

That puts Nithya Raman on track to join Karen Bass in a November runoff between two Democrats.

[Toaster @DaMapperToaster]

To be honest this seems a bit short of what I’d wanted to see here. I think Steyer may fall just short of catching Hilton when’s everything is done

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Los Angeles County 6/6 Drop

Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes)
🔵 Xavier Becerra – 53,694 (35.7%, +6.8%)
🔵 Tom Steyer – 47,849 (31.8%, +9.5%)
🔴 Steve Hilton – 21,555 (14.3%, -8.9%)
🔴 Chad Bianco – 6,687 (4.4%, -3.0%)

[David @davidslosttt]

Since nobody wants to have the balls to say this I’ll go ahead and take one for the team, I haven’t seen a single argument for El-Sayed being unelectable that’s not rooted in racism

[Drew Savicki @DrewSav]

There are legitimate criticisms of California's laborious vote counting but unfortunately Republicans always start screaming fraud which negatively polarizes Dems into supporting the status quo.

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

CA Governor's Race: 6/6 Expectations

I expect Saturday to be a much slower day of counting. California counties reported 39 vote drops on Friday, but we are currently expecting only a handful today. Three key counties, Los Angeles, Orange, and Santa Clara, are expected to report around 5:00 PM PT, though weekend updates are often smaller than weekday releases even in the counties that do drop.

For Steyer, today's results are particularly important. As discussed last night, Democratic performance in the Central Valley and Inland Empire has generally been much weaker than expected, both in the initial vote and in the late-counted ballots. As a result, Steyer increasingly needs even stronger results from his best-performing regions, particularly Los Angeles, the Bay Area, and other major urban counties.

Steyer needs at *least* a 17-point improvement against Hilton compared to the June 2 vote in today's major county drops. Reaching that benchmark would keep him at least somewhat competitive in the race; exceeding it by a few points would make me pretty interested to see what we get in the Inland Empire and Central Valley as the trail continues.

Hilton is likely to lose most of the 8.2-point lead he held Wednesday morning, but he only needs a few things to break his way to hold off Steyer.

One key drop may be Los Angeles today (depending on how many ballots we get). Friday’s drop was extremely blue; if today’s batch shifts back closer to Steyer +15 from the June 2 vote, Hilton would be in a very strong position to hold on.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Hilton overperformed today in Central Valley counties and key Southland counties like Orange, Riverside, and San Bernardino.

Even with Steyer beating expectations in many large counties, Hilton’s projected margin rose from 0.6% to 1.3%, moving his win chance from 62% to 85%.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

San Diego County 6/5 Drop

Candidate – Votes (Percent, Difference from 6/2 Votes)
🔵 Xavier Becerra – 22,737 (31.6%, +6.8%)
🔵 Tom Steyer – 19,155 (26.6%, +8.5%)
🔴 Steve Hilton – 17,797 (24.7%, -8.2%)
🔴 Chad Bianco – 4,699 (6.5%, -3.0%)