Daddy Ders, or daddy of Due Diligence. Incubator Fund MD, trade flow/technicals, and study narratives. Sharing signals, noise, and everything in between.
Spent some time digging through Friday’s flow and I think there are a few important takeaways.
First, the $DRAM put debit spread I found is still intact. None of the legs have been closed, which makes sense considering the position is deep in profit and there’s still premium left to burn.
The more interesting discovery came after going back through historical flow.
There was insanely heavy downside positioning and it actually started when I first pointed it out the hedge on 5/28. The earliest it started was on 5/27 and continued building out the position over several sessions thru massive put debit spreads across $SPY, $QQQ, and $IWM.
We’re talking about upwards of 70k contracts one simply one multi-leg and there were at least 11 that I tracked before having to shut it down.
After reviewing everything, the majority of those positions have now been closed for profit. Outside of one partial roll in $IWM, the heavy hedges appear to be off the board.
Does that mean the bottom is in?
No.
Does that mean you should show up Monday buying everything in sight?
Also no.
If you’re sitting on a massive winning hedge heading into a weekend, taking profits is simply smart risk management. It doesn’t mean the market is suddenly safe. Those same players can easily come back and establish new downside positions next week.
As for Friday’s sell off, stronger than expected economic data ended up being bad news for equities. In this market, stronger data reduces the urgency for rate cuts and pushes yields higher, which puts pressure on stocks, something that I’ve been highlighting every day in my MarketRecap posts.
The biggest takeaway for me isn’t that the danger is over.
It’s that institutions monetized a huge amount of downside protection.
Now we watch to see what they do next.
I’ve been lifemaxxing lately:
- daily 10,000-15,000 steps
- Wild Roman skincare routine
- sauna 3-4 times a week
- Whole Foods only
- reading fiction and non fiction
- daily prayer
- 10 mgs of creatine daily
- water through the roof, with electrolytes
- less phone time
- sober
- more fruit
What am I missing?!
@Mj4Stocks Really good RR on $IBIT rn on daily imo. Can use tight stop below. Names typically tend to respect technicals fairly well. Worth a trade IMO!!
$SPY $QQQ Got that feeling in my sack…. Time to start to take some risk off. Hedges will help - risk off for the most part. Atleast until we figure out what we want to do over 7,600…..
My girlfriend asked me at brunch what I actually do for work.
"Building trading systems."
"Like Robinhood?"
"No. Open-source. Anyone can audit the code."
She put her fork down. "So you're just coding all day for free?"
"I don't code for free. The code makes money."
"Sure it does."
I didn't argue. I opened my phone.
One wallet I was tracking turned $480 into $6,900 in 19 days. Another moved $5.3M in volume. One more had a 74% winrate across 214 trades. Sharpe 2.31. I didn't touch it once.
She stopped mid-sip.
"That's... from a script?"
Exactly.
Then I showed her the repos. All free. All public.
First: https://t.co/klxt0tuTYF
86M+ trades on Polymarket. Every outcome since day one. Free to download.
Second: https://t.co/eqMxVwgjbK
Market making bot. Both sides of the book. Gas optimized. Google Sheets execution.
Third: https://t.co/bQMvvOusBJ
ML + heuristics. I fed 14,000 wallets into Claude. One prompt. 4 minutes. Found 47 traders with 70%+ winrate. Bot mirrors them with 60-second delay.
She went quiet for a long time.
Then: "Why didn't you ever tell me?"
I didn't have a good answer.
Profile: https://t.co/jkjIhUrSmy
The people closest to you are always the last to know.
$MP: Only rare earth mine in America.
The US government owns 15% of this company.
Weekly chart finding support at previous resistance
Earnings out the way. Higher lows. Apple customer.