Harsh Sethia

My opinions are my opinions, they could be wrong!

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@TheDeshBhakt Am i the only one that can see @RussellPeters_

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@Arma_Lite_14 Those are centrifuge tubes

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@ActusDei

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@InvesysCapital What happens when you will the golden goose aka the Indian middle class 🦆

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@Kidneytoucher @WeekendInvestng Exactly my point! domestic shock absorbers ko bas road pe ghaso? That too broken roads!

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@dhirajsinha @Prakashplutus If these ladli-behenas continue we will see 200 in our lifetime

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@dhirajsinha Today, even 007 has dropped to 006 😅

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@Clutter_Cutter @niraj_shah Why do other CMs need to come? Where is the austerity?

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@dhirajsinha I think this will instead create panic and jewellers are going to see more buyers.

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@piyushchaudhry @pracheetim And any government that doles out freebies and then talks about austerity is simply dysfunctional

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@niraj_shah Also why not pullback on STCG and LTCG and accept that raising them was an error. If you need capital inflows and stabilize the INR, you need to respect the markets.

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@WeekendInvestng Who is going to tell them? And unfortunately its our pant that is going to get ripped, not their's

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@WeekendInvestng What use are their advisors if they are ready to repeat the same mistakes? All he did was added panic.

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@saurabh_gunjal_ She's saying ye sab Jane Street ke vajah se hua hai! 😅

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@suru27 Not demeaning a 40cr retirement figure for middle class is bit of a disservice to the masses.

And his maths is way off charts!

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@investor_vineet सच घटे या बढ़े तो सच न रहे.
झूट की कोई इंतिहा ही नहीं
ye kaisa maths karne vale log hai,
inhe zindagi ka toh pata hi nahi!

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

*mathing

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

Like how dumb is dumb enough? He runs a finance startup but his math is not matching.

He just went on to assume that after 60yo your portfolio will give 0 returns. And added 9% inflation like world has never seen deflation.

@sandeepjethwani please go back to middle school

[Sandeep Jethwani @sandeepjethwani]

If the 40 crore retirement number I shared shocked you, this post is for you.

Here is what I said. If you are 40 today, spending 2 lakh rupees a month, with no EMIs to service, and you want to retire at 60, you will need 40 crore rupees.

The comments had a lot of pushback. The number feels impossible. It is not. Let me show you why.

Two assumptions drive this number. Inflation and life expectancy. Both are higher than what regular retirement calculators assume. Both are right.

Start with inflation. Retail CPI in India is 5 to 6%. That is the inflation of atta, dal, and bus fare. It is not the inflation of an affluent household.

Private healthcare in India runs at 12 to 14% every year. Domestic staff wages in metros are growing at 10 to 12%. Premium school fees, international travel, club memberships. All of these inflate between 8 and 10%. Blend them and you get 9%. That is the real inflation rate of an HNI lifestyle.

Now life expectancy. Most Indians plan their retirement assuming they will live to 75 or 80. That is what national averages suggest. But national averages are pulled down by infant mortality and rural data. They have nothing to do with how long a healthy, affluent Indian actually lives. For a couple aged 65 today, there is a 71% probability that one partner reaches 85. A 44% probability that one reaches 90.

Now the math.

2 lakh rupees a month at 9% inflation becomes 11 lakh 20 thousand rupees a month at age 60. That is an annual spend of 1.34 crore.

Plan for 30 years of retirement. Your retirement portfolio which is focused on capital preservation (60% fixed income: 40% equity) earns 9%. Your Inflation is also 9%. Your real return is zero.

So corpus needed equals 30 multiplied by 1.34 crore. That is 40 crore.

Here is the good news. This number is not as far away as it looks. At 12% returns before retirement, 40 crore at age 60 translates to roughly 4 crore today for a 40 year old.

The point of this message is not to scare you. It is to make sure you understand the silent erosion of purchasing power that inflation causes.

[Harsh Sethia @DaddySethia]

@ActusDei While the historical evidence is clearly in its favor, it's difficult to ignore the debt situation in US which is literally a ticking time bomb.

Soon half of their entire federal revenue will go towards just paying the interest on outstanding debt.