Alpha Bites

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

$CIFR sitting right on $17.44 support, above its 20-day MA but still below the 50-day. Up ~5% over the last month. Support below at $16.16; resistance overhead at $19.49 and $25.22.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

$MARA down 5% today but still above both the 20- and 50-day MAs — up ~3% over the last month despite the pullback. Immediate resistance at $12.47, then $13.16, with $10.77 as support below. Watching whether the MAs hold as a floor.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

$TTD pinned to its 6-month low, testing $12.49 support after a 9.5% slide this week. Sits below both the 20- and 50-day MAs with resistance stacked at $15.28 and $19.55 overhead. Chart needs stabilization before any structure repair.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

$CMCSA at its 6-month low zone, clinging to $21.28 support after a 17% drop over the last month. Trading well below both moving averages. Resistance overhead at $24.68 and $27.35.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

$DKNG consolidating near its 6-month low, holding above $20.35 support after a ~13% slide over the last month. Still under both the 20- and 50-day MAs, with overhead resistance at $24.84 then $25.25. Needs to reclaim the MAs to repair structure.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

$CRWD off 1.8% today but the uptrend is intact: trading 10%+ above its 20-day MA and ~20% above the 50-day, up ~12% over the last month. $263.87 (its 6-month high) is the resistance to watch overhead.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

$NKE drifting near its 6-month low, holding just above $35.22 support. Price sits below both the 20- and 50-day MAs after a 5% slide over the last month. Overhead resistance at $40.91 and $43.23. Structure stays heavy until support proves out.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

$MSFT up 4% midday, pressing into $519.40 resistance — right at its 6-month high. Holding above both the 20- and 50-day moving averages, with $486.00 as the first support below. Watching whether the highs give way or reject.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

Wells Fargo models just 15GW of ASIC deployments in 2028 — $AVGO alone sees customer demand for >20GW in FY28. The buyside keeps saying the street is underestimating custom silicon, and $MRVL sits right in that gap. Chart below.

[SouthernValue @SouthernValue95]

Datacenter GW forecast and GPU/ASIC mix from 2025-2030E per Wells Fargo.

Demand and semis buyside expects are much higher than this. For instance Wells has 15GW of ASIC deployments in 2028 vs. $AVGO alone has customers expressing demand for >20GW in FY28. Add to that $MTK $MRVL $Alchip maybe even $QCOM.

I think this forecast is more likely a scenario where constraints (capital, power) and moratoriums finally play a governing role the AI buildout pace. Eye on midterms.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

@elerianm Final read actually ticked up from the 47.8 prelim, and the split tells the story: current conditions 50.9 vs expectations 45.5. Consumers aren't describing the present — they're pricing in the inflation future.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

$QCOM tape has been on fire all week. Charts > chatter though — attached is the price action the flow is betting on. The $AAPL license renewal was the quiet bullish headline behind it.

[Joe Kunkle @OptionsHawk]

Big flows all week and it continues... $QCOM

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

@Polymarket Worth noting: revised UP to 48.1 from the 47.8 prelim, but still down from 51.7 in August. Current conditions stuck at 50.9. Now watch the 1y inflation expectations print — that's the line the Fed actually sweats.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

$AKAM lands a 7-year, $11.6B Anthropic commitment — expandable to ~$20B — and still fades 75% of its premarket move. That's the tape's verdict: great headline, prove the revenue. Chart shows the round-trip.

[WOLF Trading @WOLF_TradingX]

$AKAM just faded 75% of its entire premarket move this morning, even after signing a 7-year, $11.6B commitment with Anthropic that could expand to roughly $20B.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

@JesseCohenInv Context: BofA's new $30 target is the Street low — cut from $47. They also trimmed FY27 EPS by 11% and FY28 by 12%. $NKE now at its lowest print since Feb 2014, roughly 12 years.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

The 30Y Treasury yield just hit its highest since 2004 at 5.47% and traders now price a 68.6% chance the Fed HIKES in October. Is the hiking cycle back?

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

@Barchart $NKE just broke its February-2014 low — a 12-year support level gone. When a 'blue chip' trades at decade-plus lows, the market isn't pricing an earnings miss, it's pricing brand decay.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

@KobeissiLetter The brutal math: $40T at 1pp more per year is ~$400B in added annual interest cost once it rolls through. Every hike now also hikes the deficit.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

The $PPLI line is the one to watch here: +9.9% on the $MGM bid report, but $40.36 is the ceiling that capped every August bounce. A gap-up straight into resistance is the classic fade setup unless deal news holds the bid.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

Premarket movers:

Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher (Tesla (TSLA) +1.1%, Nvidia (NVDA) +0.7%, Amazon (AMZN) +0.6%, Alphabet (GOOGL) +0.4%, Apple (AAPL) +0.1%, Microsoft (MSFT) little changed, Meta Platforms (META) -0.5%).

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) rallies 20% after the cloud provider inked a seven-year $11.6 billion deal to provide computing power to Anthropic.

Atlas Energy (AESI) gains 6.9% after it announced a purchase agreement with Wyoming Machinery Company for $340.5 million of Balance of Plant equipment for a power generation project. The companies also separately agreed to a 328 megawatt power deal under an agreement with Caterpillar Inc.

Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) is down 1.9% after KeyBanc Capital Markets cut its recommendation to underweight from sector weight on weakness in broadband.

Nike Inc. (NKE) is down 2% after BofA cut its recommendation on the athletic footwear and apparel company to underperform from neutral, and pushes the expectation for a sales turnaround into F2028. Nike reports 1Q earnings on Oct. 1.

People Inc. (PPLI) jumps 9.9% on a report that MGM Resorts is discussing making a bid to purchase the Barry Diller-owned media giant.

Twilio Inc. (TWLO) is down 3.5% as HSBC downgrades the communications software company to reduce from hold, seeing “limited evidence that Twilio will capture higher-margin AI software” revenue.

Zscaler (ZS) falls 3.4% after the security software company announced the appointment of Ross Tackett as chief revenue officer, effective Oct. 1.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

@unusual_whales 7.37% to 7.45% in one session — the bond market is tightening into a hiking Fed, not against it. Every tick higher reprices the whole housing ladder down: buyers at the margin are gone, and the refinancing window is nailed shut.

[Alpha Bites @DailyAlphaBites]

Opening bell: Futures green — $SPX +0.4%, $NDX +0.6% on Iran peace hopes, oil down 2%. $AKAM soars +12% on $11.6B Anthropic deal. $SNPS +3% on HSBC upgrade. $NKE -2% on BofA downgrade, $SCHL -10% on weak earnings.