Daily_Essess

Always On The Brink, Britains most used chip paper

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

Note: UK PMIs were better than 🇪🇺 all through 2023 and yet GDP growth was half as much in the UK
🇪🇺 average 49
🇬🇧 average 51.25

Growth 2023
🇪🇺 0.5%
🇬🇧 0.1%

[Julian Jessop @julianHjessop]

By popular demand, here's a chart comparing the latest composite PMIs for the UK, Germany and France... 👇

We've also had the US (51.4) and Japan (50.3).

ps. FAQs on the PMIs here https://t.co/GphXqywVtL

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

@julianHjessop Its also a bit "one size fits all", which it doesnt. The PMi has been consistently wrong when it comes to forecasting contraction vs growth in GDP. Its been below 48 in France through most of Q2 to Q4 and yet growth continued, same for Eurozone as a whole

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

@Stephen47229129 @Swen_2017 @ramonagusta

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

@julianHjessop Yep Germany too
https://t.co/UuTj5OESs9

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

@julianHjessop Can you explain how comes that despite supposedly much higher PMIs in the UK in Q4 than 🇩🇪 or 🇫🇷 [you tweeted quite copiously about them] the UK acheives Same negative growth as 🇩🇪 and significantly less than 🇫🇷 while running a higher budget deficit than 🇩🇪 & about the same as 🇫🇷

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

@ramonagusta Lol, January 10th, 1 month ago.

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

@julianHjessop Gentle reminder: 50 isnt a magical talisman. Not all economies grow above 50 and contract below. Some still grow at 47 or even 46, like 🇩🇪 in Q3 2022

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

@julianHjessop 50=Expansion mainly in the UK, elsewhere Expansion still between 46 and 50

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

Wow, Brexit is truly à rip roaming success

[Julian Jessop @julianHjessop]

FYI, the #OECD is predicting that the UK economy will grow at the same or faster pace than Germany, France and Italy in both 2024 and 2025... 👇

(Not a big deal - tiny margins - but we'd never hear the end of it if it were the other way around! 😉)

https://t.co/DPeekgv70e

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

@julianHjessop compare that to the EU
Exports of Goods and Services Wordls Wide (Adjusted for Inflation) are up 55% since 2008
Exports of Goods (Adjusted for Inflation) are up 49%
Exports of Services are up 78%

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

@julianHjessop Exports of Goods to EU (adjusted for Inflation) are also lower than in 2008

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

@julianHjessop Exports of Goods and Services to the EU (adjusted for Inflation) are 10% higher than in 2008
Total Trade Worldwide (adjusted for inflation) is 17% higher than in 2008

[steve burrows 🇺🇦✈️ @Swen_2017]

@julianHjessop Like in Q2 no doubt😉

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

@ramonagusta Foreign investment hasnt doubled twitt.

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

#BadGermanyTake
UK population is growing 0.8% per year, German population grew 0.3%

[Julian Jessop @julianHjessop]

FYI, big falls in both November and now December mean that German #retail sales fell 3.3% in 2023, even more than the UK (-2.8%).

But the big difference is the divergence in #consumer confidence heading into 2024: #UK recovering, #Germany crumbling... 🧵

https://t.co/VMGmHnHzBr

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

@ramonagusta Thats the same claim the CEBR made in 2013 for 2028... its a clown outfit, set up to talk up the UK

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

@TerraOrBust Turnover still 3 million below 2020

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

@TerraOrBust The CPTPP and CETA are completely different. CPTPP only exists IF Canada ratifies it. Meanwhile CETA actually exists. Demonstrably CPTPP is just pie in the sky unless UK dynamically aligns with Canadian food standards

[Daily_Essess @DailyEssess]

@ramonagusta Lol, funny how Gamon is now concerned about UK manufacturing after Brexit forced many manufacturers out of business