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🫡 Scout’s Plays 8/13 🫡
Fresh off yesterday’s 🧹
Make sure you’re shopping lines. Big differences can be found on the NRFI and Nola Ks.
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Janson Junk u 4.5 Ks
Short of this line in 11/16 games including the last 2. Only 1 K vs the Pirates in his one head to head matchup.
Pirates have been strong vs right handers -
- 1st in BABIP, OBP, xWOBA
- 2nd in wRC+
- 3rd in BA
- 4th in SLG
Janson may not pitch deep at all here which also leans in our favor
Dustin May o 4.5 Ks
Already hit this line twice vs the Padres. Comfortably over with 7 and 9 Ks.
Padres K at a 23.4% clip and May projects about 5 2/3 innings. Plenty of room with a history that suggests plenty of upside.
HOU @ SD NRFI
The Arms 💪 - first inning stats
Lambert -
16-3 NRFI with 9 straight
1.42 ERA
1.16 baserunner allowed
26.6% K rate
6.3% walk rate
King -
20-3 NRFI with 2 straight
1.17 ERA
0.78 baserunners allowed
27.4% K rate
13.1% walk rate
The Bats ⚾️
HOU -
33.9% YRFI on the season
20% YRFI in the last 15 games
1.475 expected baserunners
SD -
23.1% YRFI on the season
26.7% YRFI in the last 15 games
1.302 expected baserunners
The Verdict 👨⚖️
2 stellar first inning arms vs two first inning offenses without great current form. HOU projects for almost 1.5 baserunners but King allows under 1. Both arms take care of business here
NYM @ PIT NRFI
The Arms 💪 - first inning stats
Stock -
1-0 NRFI
0.00 ERA
0 baserunners allowed
33% K rate
0% walk rate
Chandler -
16-5 NRFI
4.29 ERA
1.19 baserunners allowed
27% K rate
13% walk rate
The Bats ⚾️
NYM -
25.6% YRFI on the season
20% YRFI in the last 15 games
1.283 expected baserunners
PIT -
31.4% YRFI on the season
6.7% YRFI in the last 15 games
1.414 expected baserunners
The Verdict 👨⚖️
NYM bats have struggled in the first all year while PIT is in poor form. Chandler has been solid enough. And while unproven, Stock is facing that struggling PIT first inning offense. Struggling bats give the arms the leverage they need