June 16, $NOK was $13.98 and loud on Twitter.
@ProblemSniper didn't buy the hype. The daily had broken its trend line and he called it a bear flag.
Nokia's around $9.25 now, down about 34%. Q3 numbers drop before the US open tomorrow.
$TXN is more than the TI-83 Plus company.
Father of Trades says TI has been making a bunch of chips for the hyperscalers.
His speculative idea: thanks to their wafer size, they could retrofit existing capacity into memory, where demand can't be met right now.
Bitcoin on the balance sheet. But what happens next? π
Tomorrow, we're getting into Bitcoin Treasuries with @punterjeff and @BritishHODL.
Looking forward to having everyone together again. π§‘
Thursday | 12:30 ET
Live on X. See you there! π«‘
π§₯ THE COAT CHECK PROBLEM
You hand over your coat. You get a ticket: "1 coat, 1:1."
That's L-BTC on Liquid. The ticket is the token, the coat is real bitcoin in a vault run by a federation.
On Sept 6, an attacker exploited a bug and printed about 4,000 tickets with no coats behind them. Then cashed them in for real BTC through SideSwap. About $319M.
About 3,400 BTC came back. Roughly 600 did not.
Where things stand today:
π’ L-BTC β BTC swaps: working again since Oct 20 via AQUA, BULL Wallet and SideSwap
π΄ Direct federation peg-outs: still paused, no date
π‘ Reserve check (Mempool, Oct 20): 3,632 BTC backing 4,235 L-BTC in circulation. That's ~85.8% covered, a gap of ~602 BTC
The federation says the gap will be closed "in the coming days." Where those coins come from has not been explained.
Blockstream says no signing keys were compromised. The flaw sat in how transactions were validated.
The lesson isn't "Liquid bad."
It's this: holding the keys to the ticket is not the same as holding the coat. Getting real BTC back still runs through a federation or a swap partner.
On-chain Bitcoin has no coat check attendant.
Would you park a larger amount on a federated sidechain after this? π
July 28, $TSLA had just closed at $307 after getting wrecked.
@ProblemSniper on the show: Elon is playing 3D chess, there's a long game, and the endgame is a SpaceX Tesla merger.
Tesla's around $385 now, up about 25%. Earnings tonight after the close, Q&A at 5:30 PM ET.
$BB just got interesting again.
Father of Trades: the QNX royalty backlog just hit $1.25 billion. That's on a $5 billion market cap.
His read: turning that backlog into revenue is a matter of time, the $9 call wall is gone, and he sees no strong resistance until near 10.
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KT read the $META options flow: heavy call selling at 900 into year end, so he sees 900 as the cap this year.
His 1,000 target was an eight month call made in July, which points to Q1 2027.
He also sees $CRWV back to about 85 by Feb or March, with $META higher by then.