🚨🇺🇸 Remember credit default swaps? The thing that blew up the world in 2008?
They were so dangerous regulators spent years trying to rein them in.
Wall Street just brought them back for a new sector.
S&P Dow Jones is launching a credit default swap index tied to 25 North American financial firms, including giants like Blackstone, Ares Capital and Apollo.
Major banks start selling it next week.
Here's why it matters: private credit has been on shaky ground.
Investors are pulling money out at an accelerating pace over fears that AI is going to gut the software companies these funds have been lending to.
A CDS index means hedge funds can now short the entire sector in one trade.
This should sound familiar. Credit default swaps were at the center of the 2008 financial crisis.
Banks used them to hedge risk on mortgage debt that was already rotting from the inside.
The instruments didn't contain the damage. They amplified it.
Private credit is a different sector and the scale is smaller.
But the pattern is the same: rapid expansion, first real stress test, and Wall Street's answer is to build new derivatives around it.
The last time they did this, it didn't end well.
Source: Reuters
🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran claims the U.S. just accepted their 10-point deal: no more attacks, sanctions lifted, troops out, and even compensation.
They also get Hormuz control plus uranium enrichment… the exact red lines from past talks.
No U.S. confirmation yet. Big claims, zero receipts (so far).
Source: @RN_Intel
I'm seeing crypto folk falling into the trough of dispair after an abysmal bull market with mainly losers and BTC outperforming their "beta".
Let me tell you a story that tells you why you got screwed. It starts with the end of FTX.
When the bankruptcy folk came in to liquidate FTX assets their mandate was to sell everything. This included vast quantities of locked SOL.
They inadvertently invented something new, selling an asset that was locked up on-chain through the magic of a legal sale agreement (pay me now, I deliver later).
The deal got passed around the ecosystem, fund managers bought up the locked SOL at more than 60% discount to compensate for being locked up and exposed to the token price.
Many hedge funds bought the deal. They knew they could hedge the token price on futures markets by shorting SOL pocketing 70-80% yield at near zero risk (staking + basis yield + token discount).
They liked it and asked where can we get more of this?
Herein lies your PROBLEM as a crypto investor in 2023-2025.
Every crypto project has backers (and a foundation) who has great wads locked tokens that have been sold to hedge funds and dumped on you immediately through futures markets.
All your alpha went to market neutral hedge funds pocketing risk free yield.
THAT IS WHY CRYPTO IN 2023-2025 UNDER PERFORMED
You got dumped on prematurely.
On the bright side many of these projects, even though they have "locked up tokens ready to dump" on paper, in reality they have been sold already, so they will logically perform without the expected sell pressure in the next bull market given they have effectively been sold.
Not that I recommend buying crypto, you need to be an insider to get an edge, it works like a casino, the house will take your money. The house in 2023-2025 were the people who understood this trade. Just buy BTC and get on with your life.
🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Day 7 of the Iran war: Strait of Hormuz basically shut down
Transit’s dead: only 2 ships slipped out; dozens of loaded tankers are stuck inside, too scared of Iranian missiles, drones, and USVs to move.
Even hanging out in the Gulf isn’t safe anymore after yesterday’s hits.
Insurance is frozen, U.S. Navy won’t escort, so the only real option left is cutting side deals with Iran.
China’s already bargaining for safe passage for its oil and Qatari LNG.
Asia’s getting crushed hardest, so the U.S. quietly gave India a 30-day pass to keep buying Russian crude.
Trump’s “we’ll reopen the strait fast” talk? Still just hot air so far.
Source: @rybar_mena
BREAKING: Bitcoin extends gains to rise above $97,000 for the first time since November 14th as levered short liquidations surge.
$700 MILLION worth of levered shorts have now been liquidated in 24 hours.
🚨🇺🇸🇻🇪 BREAKING: TRUMP EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE WAR WITH VENEZUELA IN TONIGHT'S ADDRESS TO THE NATION
Trump is reportedly expected to announce plans to launch a war with Venezuela when he addresses the nation at 9:00pm EST tonight, according to a high-placed Capitol Hill source who spoke to Antiwarcom.
Tucker separately confirmed the reporting on the Judging Freedom podcast:
"Members of Congress were briefed yesterday that a war is coming and it will be announced in the address to the nation tonight."
This follows Trump's Tuesday announcement of a "total and complete blockade" on Venezuelan oil tankers and the seizure of a tanker carrying Venezuelan crude.
According to earlier reports, Trump has been briefed on military options including:
-Strikes on government targets
-Special operations force to kill or capture Maduro
-Larger force deployment to capture airbases and oil fields
The administration has made clear its goal is to oust Maduro.
Any attack on Venezuela without congressional authorization would be unconstitutional.
The House is expected to vote today on a bipartisan War Powers Resolution aimed at blocking Trump from launching the war.
Venezuela has requested a UN Security Council meeting for next Tuesday to discuss "ongoing U.S. aggression."
9pm EST. Tonight.
Source: @Antiwarcom
🇪🇺 THE EU ISN’T BROKEN... IT’S WORKING AGAINST YOU!
Europe’s being run by people you can’t name, didn’t vote for, and can’t get rid of.
And people have the nerve of calling it a Democracy? Nah... That’s a power grab with better branding.
At the top of this mess is the European Commission, a squad of 32,000 unelected rule-makers who pass laws for 450 million people without asking once.
They fine companies for having the wrong icons and call it “protecting democracy.”
Meanwhile, the EU President is also unelected, but lectures the world on freedom. Cute.
And behind them? A swamp of NGOs, bankrolled by your taxes and billionaires like Soros, pushing radical policies no one voted for.
They lobby Brussels, Brussels funds them back, and the public? Completely cut out.
As Elon put it, “Your vote means nothing until the EU falls.”
Hard to argue when activist networks shape policy more than elected parliaments do.
Source: @elonmusk, Telegraph, Spectator
vanguard's $11 trillion in retirement accounts get bitcoin etf access december 2nd. they capitulated after november's -$3.48b btc outflows flushed sellers. boomers with 401ks couldn't buy crypto if they wanted to. tomorrow that changes. conservative money buying after degens already sold.
Japanese bonds puking on renewed expectations of rate hike: Sends 2Yr JGB yield above 1% for the first time since 2008, and Nikkei tumbles. And since Bitcoin always correlates with anything that's down, we have a 4% dump in Bitcoin in Asian trading.
This may be the most consequential article I've read in the last year.
Fourth Turning.
The Crisis.
You can feel it all around you.
Our lost faith in institutions.
Trust the FED? Trust the courts anymore? Trust the FBI?
You must harden yourself. Armor up. We will see this crises end over the next 3-5 years.
What will you be at the end of that time?
Hopefully I'll meet up with you on the other side.
https://t.co/yANhs8AadD