Denis Amo

Here are some of my likes: food, finance, travel, music, philosophy, technology, wit and wine.

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

The Catch 22 of AI: the more successful it becomes, the less demand for it. Thanks BIS

[Denis Amo @DamoJr]

@everestchris6 SKILL

[Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez @AOC]

They receive $0 in taxpayer funds.

Meanwhile, y’all are proposing defunding Veteran’s healthcare, Medicare, and Social Security when you think no one is watching.

Doesn’t get lower than gutting some of the only lifelines left for veterans, seniors, widows, and the disabled.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

I own 20 stocks in my growth portfolio.

Let's explore the competitive moats of each holding, their key metrics for 2025, and examine where they stand based on my position sizing 👇

[Emmanuel Acho @EmmanuelAcho]

The Tyreek Hill body cam footage of his detainment has been released, and those police officers are disgusting.

If the footage doesn’t make you livid, you need to check your pulse.

#FinsUp @MiamiDolphins @cheetah

[Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter]

Dolphins released a statement saying that they hope the Miami Dade Police Department takes “swift and strong action against the officers who engaged in such despicable behavior.”

[Robert Griffin III @RGIII]

Tyreek Hill should not have been forcibly driven to the ground, handcuffed and handled so aggressively for a minor traffic violation heading into the stadium before the game. Period. @cheetah

[SimonJHarris @SimonJHarris]

Criteo ⁩tested Google’s Privacy Sandbox across:
1️⃣~18k advertisers
2️⃣~1.2K publishers
3️⃣100 million weekly ad impressions
They found:
1️⃣55% Publisher adoption
2️⃣60% Revenue declines for pubs
3️⃣100% increase in Latency
4️⃣360% increase in GAM impressions https://t.co/4vLP9i6Mms

[SimonJHarris @SimonJHarris]

Sad news: Oracle is shutting its ads business 30.09.24.
Remarkable that this includes Grapeshot given how important contextual will be in the next 12 months.
Hopefully those impacted by the global layoffs will land on their feet.

[Evan @StockMKTNewz]

PayPal $PYPL is planning to start an ad sales business using the data it generates from tracking the purchases as well as the broader spending behaviors of millions of consumers who use its services - WSJ

[Scott Redler @RedDogT3]

NASA Shot (not mine)

[Denis Amo @DamoJr]

@MasiTrades Targets seem to be reversed

[zhangsta.x @zhangstaX]

$SMCI bull vs. bear skit in 90s

Enjoy 😇

[Sawyer Merritt @SawyerMerritt]

Tesla's Giga Berlin factory will resume production tomorrow (Feb 12th) after a two-week shutdown due to the Red Sea conflict.

The plant manager said the supply chain is intact again and parts are available in sufficient quantities to be able to restart completely.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

$BA

BOEING 737 MAX DELIVERY WILL BE FIRST TO CHINA SINCE 2019

FLIGHTRADAR24 SHOWS BOEING 737 MAX BOUND FOR HONOLULU THIS A.M.

CHINA SOUTHERN 737 MAX POISED TO DEPART ON DELIVERY FLIGHT

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

⚠️ #BankingCrisis update ⚠️

The banks reporting season has begun and, of course, $JPM $C $WFC all "beat" expectations, sending their #stocks higher in pre-market. However, when people started moving from reading the (cheerful) press releases to the (boring and lengthy) financial statements, bank #stocks quickly pared their gains and $BKX closed down 2.35% on Friday. 😅

What the hell did investors find in the financials that caused such a change of heart?🤔

Here are the interesting things I found so far:

1. $JPM "fair value" losses in their HTM Debt Securities book increased to 33bn$, and No here $FRC has nothing to do with it.

2. $JPM lost ~900m$ in their securities investments. What's wrong with this? These are 🥜 for Jamie! What's wrong is that this is the fourth quarter in a row $JPM books a ~900m$ loss despite the ups and downs in the market. That's a bit too regular, isn't it? However, if we compare this figure with the decrease in the HTM balance QoQ, $JPM has been selling HTM securities at ~30%, ~7.5%, ~20% discounts in Q2-23, Q1-23, and Q4-22. This is starting to be more aligned with the swings in the market, isn't it?

3. Now look at point 1 and 2 together. Do you notice anything strange? $JPM estimates a "fair value" of their HTM securities only 8% below book value, but then the price they have been selling their HTM asset is at a 30% discount! If we apply an MTM to HTM assets using what the bank itself is getting from the market, $JPM is carrying a 123bn$ MTM loss in their HTM books. 🥶

4. While at least $JPM still shares important data (wisely hidden in the various footnotes 😉), $C and $WFC don't bother to do so. However, from what they cannot avoid disclosing, we can easily see how both banks really pushed the limits in terms of accounting acrobatics this time around. For example, yesterday I flagged $WFC reported a 4m$ GAIN for Q2-23 related to their Debt Securities assets. $C did even "better," booking a 49m$ GAIN! 🙄

Both banks hold ~500bn$ of Debt Securities between AFS and HTM, and they are doing far better than Jamie in managing them… yes, if you believe in Santa and unicorns… 🤣

5. If we apply the same 30% MTM discounted value Jamie is getting to $C and $WFC, both banks might be hiding ~150bn$ in MTM losses each in their Debt Securities books. 🤷🏻‍♂️

6. What about Credit Losses? While $JPM and $WFC increased their provisions by 28% and 41% vs Q1, $C provisions decreased 8%… Cmon Jane! 🤣 However, none of these 3 banks still made any meaningful provision against their CRE books. Among them, I find $WFC "assessment" is the funniest one: "the vast majority of the [CIB] portfolio is institutional quality and with high-calibre sponsors." Ehmm… so what? Are those CRE loans guaranteed? No. Is "institutional quality" reassuring when filings for chapter 11 are at GFC levels? So basically $WFC is telling us that ~103bn$ of CRE loans they hold are "good" because they say so. 😅🫣

7. Last but not least, Deposits. $JPM (including $FRC) +21bn vs -11bn$ for $C and -9bn$ for $WFC. According to FED non-adjusted data, Large US domestic banks as a whole lost 152bn$ in deposits during Q2. Then if the net for the first 3 banks that reported is +2bn$, it means the remaining out there lost 154bn$ in deposits right? 🤷🏻‍♂️ Someone might have bleeding big time then..

Considering all that has been said so far, no wonder investors started dumping bank #stocks yesterday.

$BKX is down ~19% YTD vs $QQQ +43%. This is the equivalent of an F1 car leading a race without fuel. It's simply not possible for a car to keep racing without fuel unless you are playing a video game. Believing that you can do it in reality is equivalent to believing in Santa and unicorns

If this is the beginning of the banks reporting season, I foresee plenty of games of smoke and mirrors along with nasty surprises ahead (and not only for bank stocks, sorry)⚠️

Links to financials: https://t.co/69zDykJlou

https://t.co/2ImEMKG2RB

https://t.co/WODMyy2MAs

[Michael J. Kramer @MichaelMOTTCM]

Is the rally coming to an end for the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500? https://t.co/6yKGCkhPWd via @YouTube

[Denis Amo @DamoJr]

@shopaditi @AdtechGod $100k per month

[Toronto Maple Leafs @MapleLeafs]

It all starts Tuesday 📅