Dan ⚡️

Fund Manager of Family Office / Long term #BTC holder / $TSLA Investor since 14’ / Formerly - Hedge Fund Trader & Senior Analyst - NFA Pubic- @DANBTC916

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTCPV]

Here’s my $TSLA outlook and how I am positioning for the rest of 2025 and 2026:

Summary: $TSLA should rally towards $400 up to $480 in late 2025, then we potentially enter a new re-accumulation phase until mid 2026, due to soft Q1 and Q2 as new affordable models ramp.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

$TSLA Robotaxi airport rides are a welcomed feature!

Looking forward to the day where we don’t have to worry about $100 Uber rides or asking family to drive us to the airport.

Can’t wait to see the Tesla community post their experience.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

$TSLA and stock futures gapping up on US/China trade progress.

Big week coming up.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

Unpopular $TSLA opinion:

$450 to $500 in November 2025

Then chop between upper $400s to $300s in late December to H1 2026.

$500 to $600+ in H2 2026.

Re-accumulation phase completes once earnings grow, new models scale, and Robotaxi scales / Wall Street onboard.

We are fine with any scenario. Still positioned for long term upside.

Hope we’re wrong and TSLA breaks to new ATHs sooner.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

What if we’re wrong on the $TSLA re-accumulation phase post shareholder meeting?

Meaning, TSLA breaks out above $500 and reaches $600+ in early 2026 instead of H2 2026?

First, our overweight position in TSLA shares will benefit, so even if we sold our call options too soon, we’ll benefit from our shares increasing in value.

A few things need to happen:

1. Safety monitor removed + significant scaling of Robotaxi

2. Wall Street wakes up on Robotaxi and we see a wave of massive EPS upgrades starting the new AI narrative for Tesla

3. Tesla avoids a “Soft” Q1 to Q2 2026 completely surprising expectations

4. Tesla grows earnings YoY starting the new phase of growth in early 2026.

While these are all possible, we find it less likely to occur in early 2026, and more likely in H2 2026.

While we believe Tesla will remove the safety monitor in Robotaxi Austin, it’s less likely the fleet significantly grows in size in late 2025. Tesla wants to get things right before scaling and prioritizes safety.

Wall Street continues to sleep on Robotaxi potential as they are taking a “I’ll add it to my model once Tesla proves it” approach. Lame.

A soft H1 2026 seems more likely than Tesla announcing blow out sales, as it will take time to ramp up the new models and trims of 3/Y.

Tesla China could cool off once the year end NEV tax exemption expires, causing a pull forward to Q4 2025.

Because of this, it’s less likely for earnings to grow YoY in early 2026.

We expect growth in H2 2026 driven by vehicle delivery growth, Robotaxi expansion, Megapack, Semi, and Wall Street finally embracing Robotaxi potential starting the AI narrative.

This should send TSLA to $2T to $3T in late 2026 / 2027.

So if we get a re-accumulation phase post shareholder meeting and into early 2026, we’ll be loading up on shares, new calls, and LEAPs.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

Enjoying the global theater?

Markets are going higher and will leave the panic sellers behind.

$TSLA should benefit.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

One step forward on getting a US/China trade deal.

If we see no escalations from here, expect stock futures to gap up.

This can help $TSLA open higher in overnight trading and pre market.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

Just submitted my application on @X to offer Subscriptions!

Looking forward to sharing deeper insights and strategies on $TSLA for serious and long term focused Tesla investors!

Stay tuned!

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

There’s a good chance $TSLA heads moderately higher into the shareholder meeting, then transitions to the re-accumulation phase we have been posting about in August.

Next week, post earnings digestion should complete, the Fed is likely cutting rates (bullish for growth stocks), Trump/Xi meeting to discuss a trade deal, and anticipation for the shareholder meeting should begin.

The rally since September has moderately priced in the approval of the compensation plan. The market was expecting an update on Optimus V3 at the shareholder meeting, but now that Musk announced an unveil for Q1 2026, that lowers the excitement for the meeting.

So the anticipation really comes down to the shareholder vote. The anticipation along with the catalysts listed above should be enough to push TSLA above $450+ heading into the shareholder meeting.

If TSLA reaches $500+ before the meeting, we’ll aggressively take profits on our calls.

The last catalyst for 2025 aside from a potential December rate cut is Tesla announcing the removal of safety monitor in Robotaxi Austin as planned.

If this leads to the Robotaxi fleet expanding with more safety monitors being removed in early 2026, this can help shorten the re-accumulation phase.

Overall, we’ll trim a good amount of calls heading into the shareholder meeting and take profit on our remaining calls if we get a rally the next day on the approval of the compensation plan.

We will not be aggressively positioned with calls because of the developments from the earnings call on Optimus.

We believe a possible re-accumulation phase will have opportunities to add new calls, LEAPs, and shares to position for the potential 5 year breakout in H2 2026.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

Lightly added $TSLA at $431 during the options expiration day with max pain at $430.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

$TSLA Options Expiration Max Pain achieved with a low of $430.17

We lightly added at $431, but remaining orders didn’t fill.

Lots of catalysts for TSLA next week.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

Yes, we’re nibbling $TSLA close to max pain price and slightly below.

Glad to get any post earnings dip as we head into the Fed rate cut and shareholder meeting.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

$TSLA low volume sell off on options expiration day with max pain at $430.

You know the game.

@vol888

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

So people are bearish because $TSLA is down -2% when shares are very close to printing one of the highest weekly closing prices in history.

All ahead of a Fed rate cut which is bullish for growth stocks, which lowers financing cost for consumers, the beginning of a new easing cycle, Trump and Xi meeting on a trade deal, the most anticipated and important shareholder meeting, high probability of Musk’s 2025 compensation plan getting approved, and Tesla reiterating the removal of the safety monitor in Robotaxi Austin by the end of the year.

Zoom out.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

Here’s what to watch next week for $TSLA:

Monday - third trading day post earnings

Wednesday - Fed Rate Decision and Press Conference at 2:30pm ET (rate cut likely)

Thursday - Trump meeting Xi (Asia time)

With TSLA earnings likely to be digested by next Monday, the focus will shift to the Fed rate cut on Wednesday.

We anticipate the ‘buy the rumor’ rally on the shareholder meeting to begin post Fed rate cut.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

Well, looks like we got the “test” of $450 right at market open.

As mentioned, it will take multiple attempts for $TSLA to break above $450.

Today is the second trading post earnings, so let’s give it until next Monday for the market to digest.

Next week will be exciting as we have the Fed rate decision (likely a rate cut), and that’s also when we expect the ‘buy the rumor’ rally to start for the shareholder meeting.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

It’s looking more likely for $TSLA to test $450 today now that CPI came in cooler than expected.

It will probably take a few attempts to break $450.

Will be watching closely today.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

$TSLA higher on CPI coming in below estimates.

This locks in a Fed rate cut next week.

Macro just turned more bullish

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

CPI below estimates

PUMP IT

$TSLA

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

CPI is due at 8:30am ET.

Market expectations for CPI YoY and Core CPI YoY are at 3.1%

Inline or below estimates should be bullish for markets.

Possible fuel for $TSLA to break $450 today.

[Dan ⚡️ @DanBTC916]

Here’s yesterdays notable $TSLA Option Flows: Big activity for $550 Calls.

There were a lot of JAN16 2026 $550 Calls being bought via sweeps at or above ask with $1m+ premiums.

Also saw Puts at $420 strikes being sold via sweeps below bid for Oct/Nov expirations with $1m+ premiums.

Just after the open, a NOV28 2025 $455 Put was sold via sweep below bid for a $2.44m premium.

$420 and $455 Puts being sold below bid tell us the buyer is willing to acquire shares at those prices and collect a nice premium.

Overall seeing these flows occurring the day after an earnings “miss” tells us institutions continue to remain bullish on TSLA.

The huge reversal off the lows to close sharply higher also says a lot.