This agreement is far worse than I expected. To reopen the straitโ a strait that was open before the warโ we and our partners are transferring billions to the autocrats. We get nothing elseโ no elimination of enriched uranium, missiles, or terrorist support. And to add one final gift, we agree to not help the Iranian people pursue their democratic aspirations. Just incredible.
Reagan is rolling over in his grave. Iranโs nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal.
Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive. Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped. This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.
I have read and reread the US-Iran draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) supposed to be signed on June 19.
It looks as if the Iranians formulated their most outlandish wishlist & Trump just approved it.
Presumably Trump, as a village fool, ignored the diplomacy (as usual) and capitulated on his 80th Birthday.
This MoU is a tragicomic result of an unjustified and meaningless war instigated by Trump.
The Iranian regime has survived & probably got worse. It can celebrate a total victory over the US.
As an added bonus, it has split the US from Israel and discredited Netanyahu.
There are two generally positive agreements, which are both a restoration of the status quo ante:
First, Iran and the US "declare an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts". However, as in most points there are caveats to Iran's benefit. It includes "allies" and Lebanon, which means that the US prohibits Israel to bomb Lebanon and Hezbollah.
Second, both sides commit themselves to opening for full traffic through the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days.
Furthermore, Iran "reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons," as it did in the multilateral 2015 agreement with Obama.
For the rest, there are only US concessions to Iran:
Both countries undertake "to refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs," that is, the US will not work for regime change in Iran.
The economic benefits the US offers Iran are extraordinary:
1. To ensure together with regional partners a development fund for Iran "of at least $300 billion."
2. To end "all types of sanctions currently facing" Iran.
3. The US Treasury "will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products...and all related services..."
4. The US undertakes to make sure that all frozen Iranian funds "will be released and made fully available." This involves tens of billions of dollars.
The final agreement "will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council", which gives China and Russia a veto.
Nothing is stated about Iranian proxy forces abroad or ballistic missiles or even what will happen with the Iranian uranium.
Let us hope that this unfortunate war has ended, but Trump has reinforced the terrible Iranian regime at an enormous cost.
"Stupid does as stupid is."
The US would benefit from restoring diplomacy.