MLB Afternoon | May 30
BOS/CLE Under 6.5 FanDuel -118 +5.2%
Minnesota Twins ML +128 +11.1%
Baltimore Orioles ML +105 +4.8%
San Diego Padres ML -125 +4.0%
Houston Astros ML -102 +4.2%
1u each.
built after bedtime 🧢
+8000. Week 2. ✅
Andrew Putnam | First Round Leader
Charles Schwab Challenge
Dead heat reduction applied but still cashed.
The model found him last night. Approach play + course fit at Colonial. Market had him at +8000. We didn't argue.
Follow along. More picks every week.
built after bedtime 🧢
🎟️ Dad Task Parlay
Paolo Banchero O5.5 AST (+121)
Nikola Vucevic O11.5 PTS (-108)
Josh Hart O6.5 REB (-132)
Ben Sheppard O8.5 PTS (-106)
0.5u | +1354
High variance. Tracked separately from model picks.
Built after bedtime.
Pushed a model update this morning.
v1.1 — added Pinnacle as a sharp reference and recalibrated how we calculate edge. If Pinnacle disagrees with the retail books, we listen.
Public record stays the same. This applies going forward.
Edges will be tighter. That's the point.
Up early. Sick kiddos. Coffee doing heavy lifting.
📈 Results — Feb 28
Model: 1–1 (-0.05u)
Heat +2.5 ✅
Durant O2.5 3PM ❌
Dad Task Parlay: ❌
Sample growing. Back to it.
📊 Sharp Dad Model Play — Feb 27
🏀 Naji Marshall UNDER 5.5 Rebounds
Model: 59% | Market: 46% | Edge: +12.9%
🏀 James Harden UNDER 2.5 Threes
Model: 57% | Market: 53% | Edge: +4.6%
1 unit each.
Locked before tip.
Public beta.
built after bedtime.