Dan | Macro & Liquidity

UK Investor
Macro Strategies & Market Analysis
Stocks | Crypto | Liquidity | Credit Cycles
Not Financial Advise

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

My framework for the second half of 2026:

While most investors focus on AI headlines and all-time highs, I’m focused on what could be building beneath the surface.

My main areas of research:

• Liquidity conditions and market plumbing
• Credit markets, private equity and refinancing risk
• Financial repression as a solution to rising debt burdens
• Bond markets and yield behaviour
• Gold and silver as long-term stores of value
• Energy and commodity-driven inflation
• UK and US consumer and housing market stress

I don’t claim to know exactly what happens next but I simply follow the data, challenge my own assumptions, and share my research along the way.

Follow if you’re interested in macro, liquidity and the risks most investors aren’t talking about.

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@AshCrypto 40k is what im betting on. the one and only 786 fib.
https://t.co/tYASLeoPJA

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

Everyone is now calling that the bottom is in!

We haven't even flipped the 1st retest... until my zone gets hit I am not flipping bullish.

Stop Selling yourself a dream and be real.

Lower First!

bitcoin:native

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@GordonGekko Eth is never dead, just lower prices will come i beleive. https://t.co/3xNIqNc4wJ

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

$ETH is down hard and I still don't think we've seen capitulation.

That's usually where the real damage gets done.

I have had this zone marked for months. Got some stick for it but we are getting close!

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@AshCrypto Send it back to $880 please! https://t.co/3xNIqNc4wJ

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

$ETH is down hard and I still don't think we've seen capitulation.

That's usually where the real damage gets done.

I have had this zone marked for months. Got some stick for it but we are getting close!

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@Fibonacci_TA Wouldnt say crazy, i am certainly consider a start of my dca but i dont expect lower prices where i shall wait to bet big. https://t.co/3xNIqNc4wJ

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

$ETH is down hard and I still don't think we've seen capitulation.

That's usually where the real damage gets done.

I have had this zone marked for months. Got some stick for it but we are getting close!

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@bullydoc @stan100x What was the reasoning for dumping the rest? I mentioned the possibility of $ASTS falling some value in share price due to potential delays in launches and got x very rattled it seems.

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@DepaolaSal True, but it's important to never rule out lower prices... All it takes is the big boys to flood news outlets with negative marketing for the company. If they did I'm sure institutions would load up even more.

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

I've been digging into AST SpaceMobile $ASTS after the earnings miss and something isn't quite adding up...

The bull case is clear:
✅ Direct-to-cell satellite network
✅ Partnerships with AT&T, Verizon & Vodafone
✅ Massive addressable market
✅ Potentially billions in future recurring revenue

But the market doesn't seem to care that they missed earnings. Why?

Because nobody is buying today's earnings. They're buying the constellation.

Management's target is roughly 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026.

Here's where it gets interesting...

As of today they have:
🛰️ BlueWalker 3 (test satellite)
🛰️ BlueBird 1-6 operational
🛰️ BlueBird 7 lost during launch

So effectively we're sitting around 6 production satellites in orbit and we're already approaching mid-June.

To hit 45 satellites by year-end they need another ~39 satellites launched over the next 6.5 months.

That requires an almost flawless execution cycle:
• Manufacturing on schedule
• Launch slots available
• No launch failures
• No deployment issues
• No regulatory delays

The next launch (BlueBird 8, 9 & 10) may actually be more important than the earnings report itself.

For me the key question isn't:

"Can ASTS build 45 satellites?"

It's:

"Can ASTS physically get 45 satellites into orbit before year-end?"

The stock is currently priced as if the answer is yes.

If they execute, the valuation could look justified.

If launch timelines slip, the market may start pushing the revenue story further out into 2027-2028.

Now ask yourself, are insiders really confident in their own timeline?

$ASTS #SpaceStocks #Investing #Stocks #SpaceEconomy

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@techinvestoor I AGREE, have never doubted the long term...

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@DepaolaSal Yes I have never doubted the tech!!! I am a long term holder for sure, however I have just questioned the timeline and the potential of investors confidence slipping...

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

I think you've misunderstood where I'm coming from. I've never said ASTS won't work, the constellation won't happen, or that the company can't be a huge success...

I've actually said multiple times that the opportunity is massive, I have only pointed out the current risks it could potentially face...

If ASTS delivers on the deployment schedule, the bulls will be right. However if the timeline continues to slip then that could be a different story... Im sure confidence will take a hit.

That's not me slating the company. It's just me trying to understand both sides of the trade.

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@Michaelk0012 How low do you see gold going if you don’t mind me asking?

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

$AEM is starting to look much more interesting.

Not because it's bullish.

Because it's getting cheaper.

We've now lost the 200-day SMA, failed multiple breakout attempts, and continue to print lower highs.

If stocks enter a deeper correction, don't be surprised if gold miners get dragged down with them.

Gold miners are still equities.

That's why I'm waiting for my accumulation zone rather than trying to catch the falling knife.

Patience.

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

Good Morning!

One thing I've noticed about every major market cycle:

The story is usually right.

The price is usually wrong.

Railroads changed the world.

Radio changed the world.

The internet changed the world.

AI will probably change the world too.

The problem isn't the technology.

The problem is that investors often become so afraid of missing out that they start pricing years, sometimes decades, of future success into today's valuations.

That's what creates bubbles.

Not the technology itself.

The expectations surrounding it.

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@WinterSoldierxz I’m calling 40k
https://t.co/GgiWBNWBA8

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

Everyone is now calling that the bottom is in!

We haven't even flipped the 1st retest... until my zone gets hit I am not flipping bullish.

Stop Selling yourself a dream and be real.

Lower First!

bitcoin:native

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@crypto_lens_ I’m down with the low 40s as well, many have ruled that the bottom is in.

https://t.co/GgiWBNWBA8

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

Everyone is now calling that the bottom is in!

We haven't even flipped the 1st retest... until my zone gets hit I am not flipping bullish.

Stop Selling yourself a dream and be real.

Lower First!

bitcoin:native

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@The__Solstice I agree!
https://t.co/GgiWBNWBA8

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

Everyone is now calling that the bottom is in!

We haven't even flipped the 1st retest... until my zone gets hit I am not flipping bullish.

Stop Selling yourself a dream and be real.

Lower First!

bitcoin:native

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@SuperBitcoinBro Lower then we go higher highs
https://t.co/GgiWBNWBA8

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

Everyone is now calling that the bottom is in!

We haven't even flipped the 1st retest... until my zone gets hit I am not flipping bullish.

Stop Selling yourself a dream and be real.

Lower First!

bitcoin:native

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@The__Solstice I know!

https://t.co/GgiWBNWBA8

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

Everyone is now calling that the bottom is in!

We haven't even flipped the 1st retest... until my zone gets hit I am not flipping bullish.

Stop Selling yourself a dream and be real.

Lower First!

bitcoin:native

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@aytacyimenici I think that’s a fair assumption for year end, any further delay heading into next year could spook investors, that’s all.

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@boondockmillion Enlighten me then please

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

🚨 SpaceX investors, pay attention.

Here is a rough guide on what you could be paying for when Space X eventually Ipos.

The exact share count is unknown until official filings are released, but using roughly 13.1 billion shares outstanding:

• $50/share = $660B valuation
• $100/share = $1.3T valuation
• $135/share =$1.77T valuation
• $160/share = $2.1T valuation
• $200/share = $2.6T valuation

Many retail investors make the mistake of focusing on the share price.

A stock trading at $50 isn't automatically cheaper than a stock trading at $200.

What matters is the valuation of the entire company.
So if SpaceX IPOs at $135/share, you're not buying a "$135 stock"...

You're potentially buying a company valued at around $1.77 trillion.

The exact numbers will depend on the final share count, but this should give you a rough idea of the valuation range you could be paying for.

$SPCX

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@merlinscapital Of course it is... the same headline as soon as things get a bit hot!

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

@MaxCrypto Wait for the rise in the dollar this week.
https://t.co/tYASLeoPJA

[Dan | Macro & Liquidity @Dan_macros]

Everyone is now calling that the bottom is in!

We haven't even flipped the 1st retest... until my zone gets hit I am not flipping bullish.

Stop Selling yourself a dream and be real.

Lower First!

bitcoin:native