Daniel Moss

Investor | Energy Trader

[Dr. Parik Patel, BA, CFA, ACCA Esq. @ParikPatelCFA]

Bro is literally the President and doesn’t understand how inflation works

[Jomboy @Jomboy_]

"It's very very smart from Jonny Bairstow"

"Brilliant work by Jonny Bairstow, a wicket out of absolutely nothing there"

"a lot of credit to Jonny Bairstow for realizing the moment"

#TheAshes

[Jim Bianco @biancoresearch]

3/3

What prompts the Fed to stop hiking? In each of the cases shown above, the Fed went too far and something in the markets/economy broke:

The Fed ended a hiking campaign on May 16, 2000, at 6.50%. This was two months after the NASDAQ bubble burst and tech stocks were imploding.

The Fed ended a hiking campaign on June 29, 2006, at 5.25%. The Case-Shiller housing index peaked two months later, leading to a massive collapse and the Great Recession.

The Fed ended a hiking campaign on December 19, 2018, at 2.375%. Initially, the stock market broke following this meeting, leading to the “Powell Pivot” in January 2019. That September, the repo market broke.

If today marks the last hike, a strong case can be made that it was influenced by the problems in small and regional banks, as they are potentially breaking.

Implications for the S&P 500

The table below shows the S&P 500’s performance during these previous peaks, pauses, and pivots.

Buying the end of the rate hike campaign and holding until the rate cutting campaign was over (red part of the line above) would have been a disastrous time to own stocks.

Equity bulls have been praying for a Fed pivot for a year. They might want to be careful what they wish for.

[FEAR & GREED | Business News @PodcastFear]

From Silicon Valley Bank to Credit Suisse, it's been a wild few weeks for the banking sector - what does it all mean for #investors?

@DanielGMoss from @vantagemkts_au talks to Sean Aylmer about the fallout from the tumultuous banking sector.

Listen 🔊 https://t.co/0fsowqvwhH

[Jet Ski Bandit @fulovitboss]

Angry #crypto bro at his new job

[Debra Robinson @DebraG_Robins]

The stench in this sector stinks to high heaven

[Dave Portnoy @stoolpresidente]

Big dick energy

[90s Football @90sfootball]

When Ronaldo played upfront with Gabriel Batistuta in 1997!

[Daniel Moss @DanielGMoss]

The VIX is also nearing the top of its post-pandemic range
Put/Call ratio at levels that previously seen at the June lows
Compelling technical arguments for an interim low
NFPs going to extremely interesting

[Daniel Moss @DanielGMoss]

Non-farm payrolls key event for this week - could trigger further downside for US equities and risk assets in general on upside beat

Reasons for possible upside beat:
- Initial and continuing jobless claims have trended lower since late-July/early-August

[Daniel Moss @DanielGMoss]

However, a downside beat could install a short-term market low for SPX
Currently sitting at its 200-week moving average with eerily similar price action to that seen in 2016
Good risk-reward entry for bulls, if you can look past a pretty horrid fundamental backdrop

[Daniel Moss @DanielGMoss]

@Kyle_Rodda @tweetsbybob_ How was she ever AG

[Bloomberg UK @BloombergUK]

JUST IN: The Bank of England says it is still to decide if it will comment on the pound, after sterling crashed to an all-time low against the dollar https://t.co/X3Blzr8s1G

[𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 @pineconemacro]

Could not agree more with the Professor 👏🏼