Dan Darling

Defense Industry Thought Leader; formerly Vice President of Market Insights for Forecast International; Kansas State University alum; Opinions are my own

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

It will be interesting to see how much of the Taiwanese government's budget request is trimmed by the National Assembly under the final markup. Because it almost assuredly will be, much to the chagrin of Washington. 🇹🇼 #Taiwan #defense
https://t.co/5mOxB77PrF

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

Japan is in the eye of a geopolitical storm. Which is why its military rearmament is taking on expanded, accelerated momentum. 🇨🇳🇰🇵🇷🇺 each present challenges & the potential of coordinated pressure increases the need for responsive capabilities. #Japan

https://t.co/HnDcJVrxek

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

Positive news for Germany's push to rearm/rebuild the Bundeswehr into a capable force. 30 yrs of deterioration won't be fixed overnight by infusions of cash & a small +% in recruits, but it's a start.

Germany: Bundeswehr troop numbers reach 13-year high https://t.co/upaSCOPBYn

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

We’ve fallen in love with drones, but they’re not the sole answer https://t.co/QozIYOwaJn

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

Frustrating, but predictable.

[Larisa Brown @larisamlbrown]

Burnham and Streeting refuse to commit to new chancellor John Healey’s demand to increase defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP by 2030. Number 10 also rejects plans for war bonds, with @Steven_Swinford
https://t.co/rofN1f6EXy

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

South Korea to Train All Active-Duty Soldiers to Operate Drones https://t.co/uikIBeKfOs

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

This felt inevitable for some time now, and now it's official.

[FT Europe @ftbrussels]

Berlin pulls plug on Franco-German fighter jet https://t.co/7g0vcgCOkP

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

🇦🇺 & 🇯🇵 are looking to bolster their #defense production and exploring areas for deeper defense industrial cooperation. My thoughts on this development are shared for his piece. 👇https://t.co/wTekwUTat2

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

Yet another painful reminder that the US forfeited its crucial rare earth supply chain to China. https://t.co/gaFTvmLk2m

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

Economic concerns aside, expect the growth rate to rise in 2026 due to: a higher 🇺🇸 defense budget, ramped-up European rearmament initiatives, supplemental spending packages/budget hikes in the Middle East, 🇯🇵🇹🇼 investment rises, 7% 🇨🇳 budget increase, & ongoing 🇷🇺🇺🇦 conflict.

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

The latest global military spending figures from @SIPRIorg indicate an 11-year upward trend. An interesting thing of note in the report is the slower rate of increase over 2025, highlighted by a drop in "total" 🇺🇸 military investment stemming from zero Ukraine funding approvals.

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

This is something Japan has been building towards for a decade

[Bloomberg @business]

Japan removed most of its restrictions on weapons exports as it seeks to create a larger market for companies in the arms business while building a more robust base of suppliers for its own military https://t.co/HPg0wD4y80

[Bonnie Glaser / 葛來儀 @BonnieGlaser]

USA Rare Earth to Acquire Serra Verde in $2.8 Billion Deal. “Serra Verde’s Pela Ema mine is a one-of-a-kind asset and the only producer outside Asia capable of supplying all 4 magnetic rare earths at scale, together with other vital REEs, such as yttrium.” https://t.co/Y2Bw6Jiten

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

Also should note it makes sense for 🇨🇦 to be an observer in the program & eventual buyer. Diversifying supply helps Ottawa move beyond 🇺🇸-sourced systems (should that remain the goal 5+ years from now). But 🇨🇦 aerospace sector is still closely tied to 🇺🇸 - unlikely to change soon

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

This is becoming exhausting…
GCAP is a trilateral program with workshare evenly divided to ensure each country’s aerospace prime is involved from design to production. Adding +1 dilutes from this equation. 🇨🇦 might be an eventual observer & buyer, but unlikely an equal partner.

[Financial Times @FT]

Canada pushes to join UK-Italy-Japan advanced fighter jet project https://t.co/yT3foPS82F

[The National Mall @TheNationalMall]

Cheering on the astronauts and crew of Artemis II from America’s Front Yard. Out of this world!
🚀🇺🇸🏛️🌳🌕

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

@gjb70

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

Every major supply chain of the 21st century runs through 65 kilometres of water.

Not a metaphor. A measurement.

The Strait of Hormuz is 39 kilometres wide. The Bab el-Mandeb is 26 kilometres wide. Both are now contested by the same axis. Iran holds Hormuz. The Houthis threaten Bab el-Mandeb. Together they declared solidarity on March 26 with “fingers on the trigger.”

Here is what flows through those 65 kilometres.

Oil. Twenty to twenty-five percent of global seaborne petroleum through Hormuz. Another 12 percent through Bab el-Mandeb. Combined: one-third of the world’s oil.

Natural gas. Twenty percent of global LNG through Hormuz. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on March 24. Trains 4 and 6 are offline. 12.8 million tonnes per annum will not return for three to five years per QatarEnergy’s CEO.

Helium. Qatar produced one-third of the world’s helium as a byproduct of that same LNG. Spot prices have doubled. Samsung and SK Hynix have six months of inventory. After that, semiconductor fabrication slows. Every advanced chip on earth requires helium somewhere in its manufacturing process. There is no substitute.

Semiconductors depend on helium. AI training depends on semiconductors. Quantum computing depends on helium directly, cooled to millikelvin temperatures in dilution refrigerators. Post-quantum cryptography depends on the quantum computers that depend on the helium that came from the LNG plant that was hit by missiles fired from the country that controls the strait.

That is not a supply chain. That is a dependency chain five layers deep terminating at a single geographic coordinate.

Fertilizer. Qatar and Iran supply 20 percent of global urea exports. Urea hit $690 per tonne. American farmers are shifting from corn to soybeans because nitrogen fertilizer derived from natural gas is now unaffordable.

Internet. Ninety-five percent of global data traffic travels through undersea cables buried one to two metres beneath the seabed in those same two straits per TeleGeography. FALCON. GBI. EIG. SEA-ME-WE 6. AAE-1. FLAG. The IRGC threatened to cut them on March 28. The financial data connecting every stock exchange on earth runs through the same water as the oil tankers.

Money. Iran collected yuan tolls from vessels transiting Hormuz under IRGC escort per Lloyd’s List. The first non-dollar energy settlement imposed by force at a global chokepoint in the post-Bretton Woods era. Not replacing the dollar. Bifurcating it.

Rockets. SpaceX uses 10,000 to 20,000 litres of helium per Falcon 9 launch. The Starship that carries the Starlink satellites that replace the undersea cables threatened by the same axis uses autogenous pressurization because Musk saw this dependency before the war proved it. SpaceX is filing the largest IPO in history this week at $1.5 to $1.75 trillion. Filing into a war that validates every thesis that built his company.

Nuclear. Israel struck Ardakan, Iran’s only yellowcake plant, and Arak, its heavy water complex, on March 27. JSOC is planning contingency operations to seize 450 to 970 pounds of enriched uranium from underground tunnels per CBS and Axios. Three carrier strike groups, two Marine Expeditionary Units, and DEVGRU operators are staged for April 6.

Oil. Gas. Helium. Chips. AI. Quantum. Fertilizer. Food. Cables. Settlement. Rockets. Satellites. Nuclear weapons. The largest IPO in history. The birth of a parallel monetary system.

All of it through 65 kilometres of contested water.

The market has priced an oil disruption. It has not priced a civilizational chokepoint.

Full analysis: https://t.co/32ixeQpfif

[Larisa Brown @larisamlbrown]

"Even if the strait reopened tomorrow, the damage to energy facilities from missile strikes will take years to repair. In the uncertainty over how the war will end, one thing is certain: the economic effects will stretch until the end of the decade" https://t.co/XGpSWsu5g5

[Dan Darling @DanielRDarling]

A predictable problem foreseen last summer and warned about for years (using expensive interceptors with long production timelines to fend off saturated missile and UAV attacks). https://t.co/wjg1TzSbQd