peacefare.net

Prof @SAISHopkins. Former Special Envoy @StateDept and VP @USIP. Dad of @JaredSerwer + @AdamSerwer. @Palgrave published my Strengthening International Regimes.

[Acyn @Acyn]

Rubio: I have never seen Trump fall asleep.

Lieu: I’m going to show you a video that shows you just lied to congress. Here is a video of him asleep while you are talking.

[Tom Nichols @RadioFreeTom]

“Our conclusion: the Iran War is worse than a failure. It's a strategic calamity with no notable achievements and potentially trillions in direct and indirect costs to the US and global economy.”

[RKS NEWS @RksNews]

Montenegro Approves Law Describing 1918 as a “Violent Annexation,” Portraying Serbia as an Occupying Power

#Montenegro #Serbia #PetrovicNjegos #History

https://t.co/wQuOWiQh1m

[peacefare.net @DanielSerwer]

👏

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

Kudos to @RepKeithSelf for ensuring that Sec. Rubio offers a view on the situation in Kosovo and BiH. Rep. Self’s description of the general situation in the Western Balkans are well taken.

Rubio’s comments rejecting the idea of further division or partition in BiH and the region are positive but it is important to recall that Kremlin-backed Bosnian Serb secessionist Dodik - whom the U.S. relieved of all sanctions last year - is spending millions in DC right now, advocating for just that aim. Greater U.S. pushback against his dangerous adventurism is therefore needed.

[Gianl1974 @Gianl1974]

A message to all sane Republicans:

He pardoned 1,600 violent criminals.
You said nothing.

He bulldozed the East Wing.
You said nothing.

He interfered with the release of the Epstein files. You said nothing.

He took over the Kennedy Center and renamed it after himself. You said nothing.

He accepted a $400 million airplane as a personal gift. You said nothing.

He threatened Canada, Cuba, Denmark, Greenland, Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil. You said nothing.

He tariffed just about everyone but Russia, causing inflation and instability worldwide. You said nothing.

He attacked a nation during mediated negotiations. You said nothing.

His ill-conceived war killed 175 children on day one. You said nothing.

He alienated and insulted our allies. You said nothing.

His ICE Army terrorized and murdered U.S. citizens. You said nothing.

He committed murder on the high seas. You said nothing.

He co-opted the Justice Department and directed it to prosecute his political enemies. You said nothing.

It’s time to start talking.

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

trump’s biggest foreign policy miscalculations have come from underestimating other countries; whether friends (ukraine), competitors (china), or adversaries (iran).

[peacefare.net @DanielSerwer]

This works for me, but not for Trumpkins. They are committed no matter how much he lies. It’s a mental syndrome associated with white Christian nationalism.

[Daniel Dale @ddale8]

Here’s a fact check of some of President Trump’s claims, including a bunch of long-debunked lies, from a single softball New York Post interview released this morning.

Claim: “We're the only country in the world that has mail-in ballots.” Truth: Dozens of countries have mail-in ballots, including Canada, the UK, Australia, Germany, and Switzerland.

Claim: The 2020 election was “rigged” and has “been proven to be rigged.” Truth: Not rigged, there’s no proof for Trump’s assertion more than five years later, and he lost fair and square.

Claim: Trump won “three” presidential elections. Truth: He won in 2016 and 2024, lost in 2020.

Claim: In the 2024 election, “There were areas that were just rigged…rigged against me.” Truth: Nonsense again; he won that election fair and square but lost some areas of the country fair and square.

Claim: Democrats “could not win” “if they didn’t cheat.” Truth: Democrats, like Republicans, clearly win various elections legitimately.

Claim: California mails out “38 million ballots," and while "some people get three, four, five ballots," "Republicans get, oftentimes, none.” Truth: California mails a ballot to all active registered voters, of which there are 23 million, not the “38 million” figure Trump has used repeatedly; while there are occasional errors by county elections offices and the postal service, there's no general anti-Republican bias in ballot-mailing in the state.

Claim: “I inherited the highest inflation in the history of our country…Biden had like 9, 10% inflation. And I inherited that, and we have it way down.” Truth: The inflation rate the month Trump returned to office was 3.0%, lower than the most recent rate of 3.8%; Biden-era inflation did peak at 9.1%, but that was in mid-2022, and it wasn’t close to the all-time record of 23.7%. Regardless, it had fallen substantially before Trump’s inauguration.

Claim: “We have $18 trillion being invested in the country in just 11 months.” Truth: This is a completely fictional figure. The White House’s own website says there have been $10.6 trillion in “major investment announcements” this term, and even that’s a massive exaggeration that counts vague pledges, not-even-pledges, and pledges that are about mutual trade rather than investments in the US.

Claim: Trump had gas prices at “$1.85 in Iowa” on the day he visited there in January. Truth: The Iowa average gas price that day was $2.57 per gallon, per AAA; GasBuddy found four stations in the state out of 2,036 selling for $1.97 that day, none at $1.85; the station outside the venue where he spoke was at $2.69. (Ethanol-gas blend E85 was around $1.85, but that can only be used in a small percentage of cars, and he didn’t say that was what he was talking about.)

Claim: Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico was still wearing a mask “a couple of months ago.” Truth: I've found no evidence for this; the Talarico video many Republicans have mocked shows Talarico wearing a mask in 2022, not 2026.

Claim: Mitch McConnell was “losing by a lot” in the 2020 Senate election in Kentucky but then Trump endorsed him and got him elected. Truth: McConnell, running in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1992, led in all but one public poll in that race, and that one exception was a poll conducted for a pro-term-limits group in which he trailed by just one point; he was always the overwhelming favorite.

Claim: The Jan. 6 attack was “nonsense” in which “the FBI said, ‘Go in. Go in.’” Truth: That was a riot perpetrated by Trump supporters, and there's no evidence the FBI ever told rioters to illegally enter the Capitol. DOJ’s inspector general found the FBI had zero undercover agents at the riot…and Trump was president at the time and had personally appointed the FBI director.

Claim: Former VP Harris “was the border czar” but “never went.” Truth: She went to the border twice as VP, and the Biden administration repeatedly emphasized she was never “border czar” but had a narrower assignment focused on the “root causes” of migration from Central America.

Claim: Under Biden, “25 million people” poured over the border. Truth: This is a further exaggeration from the wildly exaggerated “21 million” figure Trump used to use; even counting “gotaways,” it’s not even close to correct.

Claim: Democrats are so dumb that “we had 11,888 murderers, most of whom committed more than one murder, allowed into our country.” Truth: The federal data it appears Trump is referring to is about people who entered the US over the course of multiple decades, *including during Trump’s own first administration.*

Claim: Under Biden, countries emptied their jail populations into the US – “the whole jail was emptied into our country.” Trump and his team have never substantiated this claim even though he’s made it for years, and experts on global prison policy and on the countries he has previously identified as the supposed culprits have told me they’ve seen no evidence for it.

More details: https://t.co/NtFk7PUfwN

[peacefare.net @DanielSerwer]

Courage:

[Prince du Karabaque @hayqmets]

🇦🇲🇦🇿 Nikol Pashinyan: Abandoning Karabakh was my greatest service to Armenia.

"I said that we have no right to pass this bleeding wound from generation to generation. We must pass peace on to our children. Yes, I had the courage to say that we are on the wrong path, that we should not continue the Karabakh movement, and as a result, today we are more independent, more prosperous, and more of a state than ever before.

If the Karabakh movement continues, there will be small and large wars, ongoing casualties, and the loss of statehood. I freed Armenia from that temptation, and I consider it my greatest service to Armenia."

[Noodles @criptopaul]

Let's decode what actually happened here.

Axios reported that Trump exploded at Netanyahu. Called him "fucking crazy." Said "you'd be in prison if it weren't for me." Said "everybody hates you now."

The journalist is Barak Ravid again, we talked about it. Israeli. Based in Washington. Covers the Netanyahu-US relationship for Axios, and every latest deals to calm the markets.

This is the same journalist who wrote the exact same type of story about Biden. There is literally a book chapter about this pattern. It is called "Fuming Biden." The same reporter. The same format. The same function. Different president.

Now watch the response.

Mark Levin, a close ally of both Trump and Netanyahu, did not deny the story. He demanded an FBI investigation into who leaked it. When your defense is "this should never have leaked" instead of "this never happened," you have confirmed the call happened.

But here is the part that matters.

Why would Levin, a friend to BOTH men, confirm the most explosive account of their relationship ever published?

Because it serves both.

Trump gets to look tough. Not Netanyahu's puppet. Willing to put Israel in its place. His base loves it.

Netanyahu gets cover. He "paused" the Beirut strike, but not because Iran threatened him. Because his "friend" asked him to. His base loves it too.

And look at what actually changed on the ground. Nothing.

Israel cancelled the Beirut strike. But the ground invasion of Lebanon continues. The IDF is still miles deep. A soldier died today from a Hezbollah drone. Netanyahu's office said: "position unchanged."

The performance was perfect. Trump gets the headline. Netanyahu gets the cover. The deal gets another 48 hours of "progress." Markets get a reason to breathe.

And the war continues exactly as planned.

This is the same playbook. Every time public opinion turns against the war, a story appears showing the US president is "furious" with Israel. It creates the illusion of restraint while changing nothing.

Biden was "furious" for 14 months. The war never stopped.

Trump is "furious" now. The ground invasion is expanding.

The visible game is: Trump controls Netanyahu.
The real game is: both men are performing for their audiences while the machine moves forward.

Nothing has been signed. Nothing has stopped. The war is not winding down. It is being managed.

Neither one controls the other. They walk arm in arm. Know that.

[peacefare.net @DanielSerwer]

Of course he doesn’t care. His only interest has been in manipulating oil prices for the benefit of his pals.

[Eamon Javers @EamonJavers]

Here’s the full transcript of my call with President Trump earlier today: Trump tells CNBC: 'I don't care' if Iran negotiations are over https://t.co/8mV4ddU0BZ

[Jasmin Mujanović @JasminMuj]

Despite being the key criteria for the closure of the @OHR_BiH and BiH's accession to NATO since 2008, no 'pro-Bosnian' political party has yet drafted comprehensive legislation to regulate the country's vast public lands and properties. Now, that issue has become central to the ouster of Christian Schmidt, the nomination of a new High Representative, and the deeply contentious Southern Interconnector gas pipeline project.

For @odgovor_ba, I argue genuine Atlanticist and 'European' leaders in Sarajevo must confront the issue head on, and leveraging all of the legal advantages available to them in this dispute, offer concrete solutions -- today. And there are specific policy regimes available which they can easily use as models. https://t.co/bfnatsC7pp

[Yaakov Katz @yaakovkatz]

I hate to be the guy to pour cold water on the reports of IDF troops reaching the Beaufort Ridge in Lebanon, but I struggle to understand why this is being celebrated.

For anyone who lived here in the 1990s, the Beaufort is not a symbol of success. It represents Israel's long and costly presence in Lebanon - something that claimed too many soldiers' lives and ended without Israel achieving its strategic goals.

The fact that the IDF can reach the Beaufort today is obvious and - despite the media festival - is not even close to a victory. The real questions are different: How does Israel eventually leave? What is the political endgame? And are we possibly witnessing the beginning of another prolonged military presence in Lebanon without a clear horizon for how it ends?

Because here is what we already know way too well - getting into Lebanon is always easier than getting out.

[Alan Eyre @AlanEyre1]

#IranWar: What seems clear to me:

TOPLINE: Operation Epic Fury (OEF) was an ill-conceived strategic blunder, which will result in a more dangerous Iran and a less stable region.

- The current US administration is probably unwilling and incapable of the sustained serious negotiations required to arrive at an agreement that will put effective constraints on any of Iran’s long-term abilities to destabilize the region.

SoH:

- The US naval blockade will not work within a strategically/operationally relevant timeframe, especially when contrasted with the ongoing consequences of SoH closure.

- There is no ‘poisoned chalice’ the IRGC leadership currently running Iran will drink due to economic pressure, since it sees capitulation as accelerating regime collapse as opposed to preventing it.

- The SoH will only be fully open when the maritime shipping industry, to include maritime insurers, deem it safe to travel through the SoH. That decision will be a function of the status of hostilities between the US and Iran.

NUCLEAR:

- The backbone of any effective nuclear deal is vigorous IAEA inspection/verification.

- Preventing Iranian access to its 440 kg of HEU will indeed constrict Iran’s ability to make nuclear weapons, but it is probable Operation Epic Fury has increased Iran’s desire to make nuclear weapons.

OVERALL:

- Despite any Iranian assurances that it ‘will never have a nuclear weapon’ or any US assurances it won’t attack Iran, any negotiated deal will last only as long as both sides see a net advantage to abiding by it.

- With the failure of Operation Epic Fury to translate military dominance into strategic gains, the US has lost much of its strategic leverage over Iran, especially given Iran’s demonstrated ability to inflict economic damage by closing the SoH and attacking Persian Gulf energy infrastructure.

- The US has no realistic options left to prevent Iran from reconstituting its strategic deterrence, to include missiles and drones, after the war ends. While OEF has degraded Iran’s current ability to project power beyond its borders, it has likely increased its desire to do so, which will play out in Iranian post-war efforts to reconstitute its defense industrial base.

[Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ @shanaka86]

Two out of three ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz now sail in the dark.

The United States military quietly told seventy of them how to do it in three weeks.

Transponders off. Lights out. Hugging the Omani coast.

Iran charges up to two million dollars per tanker on the other side of the same water.

The strait is now run by two shadow administrations.

The New York Times reported the American operation this weekend, citing Central Command officials. Vortexa shipping data marks the broader regime: sixty five percent of outbound vessels through Hormuz now run with automatic identification systems disabled. The United States used to guarantee freedom of navigation through this strait. It is now whispering routes to selected commercial clients and letting them sail through unseen, far from the Iranian coast.

This is not Operation Earnest Will. The United States is not reflagging anyone. There are no destroyers in escort columns. CENTCOM is not announcing transits or claiming territorial rights. The pace is roughly three American-coordinated dark ships a day across twenty one days. Pre-war traffic was over a hundred a day. The point is not the volume. The point is the architecture.

Iran runs the opposite system in the same water. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps clears chosen ships over VHF radio for up to two million dollars per tanker, payable in cash, Chinese yuan, or Bitcoin. The Financial Times documented the process. Lloyd’s List Intelligence tracks the manifests. The Treasury Secretary calls the receipts to date a pittance. Neither government admits the other has standing to operate the chokepoint.

The Protection and Indemnity clubs cancelled war risk cover for the entire Gulf region on March fifth. War risk premiums had already surged four to six times pre-crisis levels. A single very large crude carrier transit now carries about two hundred fifty thousand dollars in war risk premium alone, before any dark sailing surcharge. Underwriters treat the disabled transponder as deliberate risk elevation. Claims become substantially harder to validate when the loss adjuster cannot reconstruct what happened. Chubb opened a specialist Hormuz war risk facility on March twentieth to absorb some of the cancelled capacity. The strait is now insured the way a smuggling route is insured.

This is not a temporary wartime workaround. The chokepoint that moves a fifth of the world’s seaborne crude is being administered by two hostile governments operating in stealth, with the world’s specialist underwriting market repricing accordingly. There is no UNCLOS-protected freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz today. The Persian Gulf Strait Authority, created by Iran on May twentieth, is writing its enforcement law through Iran’s parliament. The United States is running covert dark-sailing coordination to bypass it. Each sovereign administers the same water without ever conceding the other has the right to.

Donald Trump went to the Situation Room Friday to consider the memorandum of understanding under negotiation. The meeting ended without a decision. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, in hiding, would have to sign by courier from a bunker. Israeli intelligence says he has not yet approved. The deal under review codifies what is already happening in the water.

The strait is not open.

It is not closed.

Two governments run it in the dark.

Insurers price the route like contraband.

The deal codifies what already is.

Welcome to the chokepoint decade.

[Chad Scott @cpscott16]

There are three ways the Iran war ends.

1. Trump walks away. No deal. No resolution. Hormuz remains a problem, energy markets stay rattled, and we hand the mess to the next administration while calling it someone else’s problem. Iran wins by waiting.

2. Trump gets a deal. But based on what we’ve already seen, that deal may be worse than the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action he walked away from. The old deal had verification, international buy in, and partners enforcing it. If you leave a deal because it wasn’t good enough and come back with something worse, that is failure.

3. We go to war with Iran. A country three times the size of Iraq, with ballistic missiles, hardened forces, regional proxies, and the ability to threaten roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply and 10% of global non-oil trade immediately. Forever war with no clear exit and generational consequences.

None of these are good options but I suppose two is the best option.

[peacefare.net @DanielSerwer]

Accession of #Montenegro and #Albania would help the EU stake its claim to leadership of the liberal democratic world: https://t.co/ToeZ8OfKfL

[Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz]

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has submitted an official letter of resignation to the Office of the Supreme Leader.

Pezeshkian stressed that the president and the government have effectively been excluded from major and vital decision-making processes, and the vacuum created by this situation has enabled hardline factions within the IRGC to take control of affairs.

https://t.co/XkWZea8K5d

[peacefare.net @DanielSerwer]

I was on a plane all day today without connectivity. Nothing has improved, though the feisty judges who ordered removal of the film flam President’s name from the Kennedy Center and blocked the $1.8B from going to his Jan 6 thugs give me hope.

[Sina Toossi @SinaToossi]

👇One of the most important points in this @MaxBoot piece is retired Adm. James Stavridis's assessment of what reopening Hormuz by force would actually require.

Stavridis isn't an armchair pundit. He is a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe.

His estimate: a carrier strike group, dozens of warships and aircraft, minesweepers, and 5,000-10,000 troops.

And even then, as this war has shown, Iran doesn't need to defeat the U.S. military. It only needs to create enough risk and uncertainty to disrupt shipping and energy markets.

In this scenario, Iran would be able to more easily hit these U.S. targets in the Persian Gulf, and could still threaten traffic in Hormuz from deeper inside its territory.

That's the reality many hawks ignore: there is no feasible military solution to Hormuz.

[Brian Allen @allenanalysis]

BREAKING: A federal judge is now signaling the Trump administration’s so-called “weaponization fund” may have emerged from collusive litigation and could potentially amount to fraud on the court.

That is nuclear-level language from a judge.

“Fraud on the court” is not normal criticism.
It is reserved for situations where a court believes it may have been manipulated, misled, or used as part of a coordinated scheme.

And the judge reportedly pointed to two giant red flags:
- the massive $1.8 billion settlement amount
- and concerns the opposing sides may not have actually been acting as true adversaries

Translation?

The court is openly questioning whether this lawsuit was partially engineered to create a taxpayer-funded political compensation machine.

That is an absolutely extraordinary development.