danmorris2007

Dad to two amazing girls. Married to a great gal. Ag teacher and farmer.

[danmorris2007 @DannyMorris_88]

@MilkRoadAI @grok, can you find data to support this post?

[Rohit @heyrohitai]

🚨Anthropic just showed a 24-minute workshop on how to actually do prompts for Claude.

Taught by the people who built it.

Free. No registration. No paywall.

I've seen $300 courses that don't cover what they teach in the first 8 minutes.

Watch it and bookmark it now!

[Nav Toor @heynavtoor]

BREAKING: AI can now analyze stocks like Wall Street analysts (for free).

Here are 10 insane Claude prompts that replace $2,000/month Bloomberg terminals (Save for later)

[danmorris2007 @DannyMorris_88]

@blondesnmoney I feel you there. Made a pot of coffee at Thanksgiving for the family that was a bit too strong. It sent my wife’s family into orbit while I’m just thinking I made it too weak.🤦🏻‍♂️

[IncomeSharks @IncomeSharks]

Memes getting torched today

[Mr. Anderson @Truecrypto]

A rock in bad hands killed Abel. A rock in good hands killed Goliath.

It's not about the rock.

[DEGEN NEWS @DegenerateNews]

NEW: ROBINHOOD TO JOIN S&P 500 - STRATEGY MISSES OUT ON INCLUSION IN LATEST REBALANCING

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

MY TOP 10 GROWTH POSITIONS

1. $PLTR -- Operating System for AI
2. $AMZN -- Ecosystem Powering the Digital Age
3. $NET -- Gatekeeper of the Modern Internet
4. $AXON -- Command Center for Public Safety
5. $SNOW -- Engine for AI-Driven Data Liquidity
6. $MELI -- Digital Backbone of LATAM Economy
7. $CRWD -- Guardian of the Cloud Era
8. $RKLB -- Space Logistics Company of the Future
9. $DOCN -- Cloud Platform Built for the Builders
10. Databricks -- Training Ground for Enterprise AI

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

$NBIS / $CRWV

Now that both of these companies posted Q2 earnings, here’s a deep, side-by-side on results, roadmap, customers, unit economics, capacity, financing, and risks. I’ll keep it precise and number-driven.

Quick snapshot

Q2 revenue
- Nebius: $105.1M (+625% YoY, +106% QoQ). Company raised YE25 ARR outlook to $900M–$1.1B and said it is securing >1 GW of power by end-2026. Core business turned positive adj. EBITDA.
- CoreWeave : $1.213B (+207% YoY). Revenue backlog $30.1B. Q2 interest expense $267M, capex $2.9B, net loss $290.5M

Power footprint (today)
- NBIS: Management targets ~220 MW connected by YE25, of which ~100 MW active; in process of securing >1 GW by 2026.
- CRWV: ~470 MW active, ~2.2 GW contracted, 33 data centers as of Q2.

Unit economics: density per megawatt

A useful way to compare AI infrastructure is revenue (or ARR) per active MW.

- CoreWeave: Q2 revenue $1.213B with ~470 MW active implies ~$2.58M per MW for the quarter, roughly ~$10.3M per MW annualized. This is a rough density indicator rather than a strict KPI, but it shows healthy monetization of active power.
- Nebius: YE25 ARR guide $900M–$1.1B with ~100 MW active by YE25 implies ~$9–$11M ARR per active MW if they hit both ends of guidance and activation. This is an inference that combines the ARR guide with management’s active-power target.

Why it matters: in AI cloud, the tight constraint is shifting from GPUs to power and grid access; the best operators convert active MW into high-density recurring revenue. Even Reuters’ Q2 coverage of CoreWeave called out power infrastructure as a scaling challenge.

Capacity and roadmap

Nebius $NBIS

- 2025: Targeting ~220 MW connected with ~100 MW active by year end; ramping Blackwell clusters in U.S. and Europe
- Sites and hardware: Pre-orders for NVIDIA GB200 NVL72 and HGX B200; new New Jersey data center dedicated to Blackwell; Kansas City B200 deployment noted; UK Blackwell Ultra cluster slated to be operational Q4 2025.
- 2026: “In the process of securing >1 GW of power” by end-2026.

CoreWeave $CRWV

- Q2 footprint: 33 data centers, ~470 MW active, ~2.2 GW contracted
- 2025 scaling: Company flagged a capex ramp to bring ~400 MW+ more online this year; reiterated FY revenue guide $5.15–$5.35B.
- Vertical power move: Agreed to acquire Core Scientific in an all-stock deal (~$9B). On close, CRWV would control ~1.3 GW gross power across Core Scientific’s footprint, plus 1 GW+ expansion potential. Integration risk is non-trivial, but this is the clearest path to de-risking long-term power.

Go-to-market and customers

Nebius
- Logos: Management cited Cloudflare, Shopify, and Prosus as recent enterprise wins, alongside AI-native startups. This helps validate NBIS beyond pure “GPU rental.”
- Self-serve + enterprise: Preorder flow and a published “self-service” lane for Blackwell clusters broaden the funnel while enterprise contracts fill larger blocks

CoreWeave
- Concentration and scale: S-1 disclosed heavy reliance on top customers; Microsoft was 62% of 2024 revenue and the top two customers were 77%. Q2 highlighted a $4B OpenAI expansion, on top of the earlier $11.9B commitment. Great for scale, but concentration raises risk

Risks

CoreWeave
1. Financing risk: high capex and large interest burden. If rates stay elevated or cap markets tighten, margin expansion gets harder.
2. Customer concentration: material reliance on a few mega buyers, even with new wins.
3. M&A execution: integrating Core Scientific and realizing the 1.3 GW plan without delays or cost overruns.

Nebius
1. Activation cadence: connected vs active MW can make quarterly optics lumpy. Hitting the ~100 MW active by YE25 is key to the ARR math.
2. Supply and timing: Blackwell deliveries and site readiness in NJ/UK must align with demand.
3. Scale curve: group-level profitability at hyperscale still depends on execution; cash helps, but ramp needs are large.

How I score it

If you want cleaner balance-sheet exposure to rising ARR per active MW, with a mix of self-serve and enterprise and explicit power milestones, $NBIS looks like the simpler compounding story into YE25 & 26'.

If you want immediate scale and are comfortable underwriting capex, interest, and integration in exchange for huge backlog and a bid to control 1.3 GW of power, $CRWV offers the most near-term revenue but higher financial and execution risk.

That's why my pick is $NBIS.

[danmorris2007 @DannyMorris_88]

@amitisinvesting In reality, Powell is doing us a favor by keeping rates higher. We all want lower rates for short term gains but the inflation will coming roaring back if it’s done too soon.

[danmorris2007 @DannyMorris_88]

@TheFlowHorse I’m in the same scenario but a few years ahead. It’s amazing and only gets better. You will be their rock and be blessed beyond measure in return.

[danmorris2007 @DannyMorris_88]

@amitisinvesting All thanks to @amitisinvesting. Been a good year and looking to do more. Any tips on learning options?

[danmorris2007 @DannyMorris_88]

@truecrypto I’m not sure if it’s just patience. I think it’s more the fear to take the risk and few desire to put in the effort/time/resources. Our small business does well but these factors took me a while to overcome before I took the plunge.

[Horse @TheFlowHorse]

What a privilege to be tired from work you once prayed for.

What a privilege to feel overwhelmed by growth you used to dream about.

What a privilege to be challenged by a life you created on purpose.

What a privilege to outgrow things you used to settle for.

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

For investments:

Contrarian in the entry, trend follower in the recovery to expansion, contrarian if needed in the exit.

Trader building the position, investor in analyzing potential and risks.

Buying great business when out of favor because of mainly external issues is my goal for the longer term part of my approach.

Some will be internal issues, but it warrants a steeper discount to make me take the risk.

Long:

-Durable Competitive Moat
-High Return on Capital (especially incremental)
-Strong Free Cash Flow
-Simple, Understandable Business Model
-Dominant Market Position
-Mission-Critical Products or Services
-High Customer Retention and Loyalty
-Low Obsolescence Risk
-Low Cyclicality
-Long Runway for Reinvestment
-Capital-Light with Operating Leverage
-Self-Funded Growth (no dependence on capital markets)
-Clean, Transparent Financials
-Conservative Use of Debt
-Rational, Owner-Oriented Management
-Consistent, Disciplined Capital Allocation
-Ethical, Long-Term Focused Leadership
-Low Executive Turnover and ideally founder-led
-Culture of Rationality and Accountability
-Built-In Optionality Without Overpaying

Short:
-No Sustainable Competitive Advantage
-Low or Declining Return on Capital
-Negative or Inconsistent Free Cash Flow
-Complex, Opaque, or Hard-to-Understand Model
-Weak Market Position / Intense Competition
-Commoditized or Non-Differentiated Products
-High Customer Churn or Weak Brand Loyalty
-High Risk of Technological Obsolescence
-Highly Cyclical or Dependent on Macro Tailwinds
-Limited or No Reinvestment Opportunity
-Capital-Intensive with Low Margins
-Reliant on Frequent Capital Raises or Debt
-Aggressive or Manipulative Accounting Practices
-High Leverage with Poor Debt Discipline
-Management Focused on Ego or Empire-Building
-Huge management pay packages over business profitability
-Poor Capital Allocation History (e.g. bad M&A, buybacks at highs)
-Short-Termism Over Long-Term Value Creation
-High Executive Turnover or Dysfunctional Culture
-Misaligned Incentives / No Skin in the Game
-Lack of Transparency and Accountability

[danmorris2007 @DannyMorris_88]

@EndicottInvests What is your advise for someone wanting to learn about options?

[danmorris2007 @DannyMorris_88]

I just subscribed to Cluseau Research https://t.co/tQ8wbEzoe4

[goodalexander @goodalexander]

I increasingly find there is too much info to keep track of. Here is a method to rapidly burn through important YouTube interviews

Step 1: use your favorite Youtube transcript generator (won't promote any here)
Step 2: paste into Claude Opus 4 - generates two separate summaries (business/ technical)

Paste in this Prompt:
___

Implement a world class summary of this Document for Michael Platt, head of Bluecrest Capital Management and his CTO Jeffrey

Platt
Only cares about economic reality not hype
Cares about macro implications of the work that are verifiable, and not speculative
Wants specific numbers and statistics along with sources

Jefrey:
Only interested in academically defensible positions and their warrants
Wants key details/ logic and business builds
Focused on technological capability enhancement degredation etc

For the summary have a
Business summary
A technological summary
Concluding statements

Other rules:
Do not omit key information
Summary should be as long as it needs to be for both counterparties
These are billionaires you have to execute at a top spec

CREATE 2 SEPARATE SUMMARIES. DO PLATT SUMMARY FIRST
THEN ASK FOR PROMPT TO DO JEFFREY SUMMARY NEXT
___

[danmorris2007 @DannyMorris_88]

@grok when did that occur?

[danmorris2007 @DannyMorris_88]

Hey @grok who was the most famous person to visit my profile in the last 3 years? It doesnt need to be a mutual, don’t tag them, just say who it was using handle without the @ sign