DataProps

Turning raw stats into winning props.

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@statpickai Great app! What’s the monthly user activity like if you don’t mind me asking?

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⚾️MLB Home Run Play #2:

Dodgers @ Rockies- Teoscar Hernández vs. Tanner Gordon

Coors plus Teoscar is a clean green light. Hernández’s 12.9 % barrel rate and ~90.0 mph average EV stay loud, and he punishes any heater/slider mix that leaks arm-side.

Gordon’s underlying contact allowed is the tell: opponents own a .398 wOBA and 43.2 % hard-hit rate, with his fastball/slider/change sitting in a modest velocity band (recent outing 81.5–93.6 mph). He’s also been shorter-leashed (just 38.1 IP across eight games), which brings a homer-prone bullpen into play earlier at altitude.

With a hot, dry evening in Denver and Coors’ top-tier HR environment, conditions are favorable for carry. Teoscar can gear for the four-seam up or the backed-up slider that stays middle-in — either pitch shape fits his lift path, and his damage on mistake four-seamers has stayed consistent all year. It’s the most aligned batter-pitcher-park combo on the slate.

#Dodgers #Rockies #MLB

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⚾️MLB Home Run Play #1

White Sox @ Braves- Marcell Ozuna vs. Martín Pérez

Perez is a sinker/cutter lefty whose contact profile has sagged: 14.5% barrels allowed and 90.8 mph EV allowed in 2025. That’s a poor recipe against Ozuna’s compact torque and vertical bat path—he carries a 12.2% barrel rate, 90.4 mph avg EV, and .380 xwOBA, plus top-tier damage on belt-high cutters and mis-located sinkers.

Atlanta’s sequencing advantage helps: Perez gets ahead with sinkers and tries to steal soft stuff at two strikes; Ozuna’s heat map vs. arm-side run is built for lift to left.

Add park/context: tag favorable- Truist Park grades as a friendly RH power venue on Savant’s venue board, and a warm, humid Atlanta night gives a tiny nudge to carry. If Perez’s two-strike soft stuff leaks arm-side, Ozuna’s bat speed punishes it.

#WhiteSox #Braves #MLB

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⚾️MLB Home Run Play #2:

Orioles @ Red Sox- Gunnar Henderson vs. Walker Buehler

Buehler’s stuff menu is long (2025: 451 four-seam, 326 cutters, 287 sliders, plus curve/sweeper), but his run prevention has lagged (5.43 ERA).

Henderson profiles perfectly to attack the fastball/cutter lanes: 92.6 mph average EV, 51.5% hard-hit, and a .426 wOBA vs four-seamers this season. He’s comfortable ambushing velocity up and in, and when Buehler falls behind he’ll show cutter or slider in the zone—both pitches Henderson can drive to the triangle or over the bullpen.

Fenway tonight is neutral with a right-to-left breeze; the wall turns some deep flies into doubles, but Henderson’s bat speed and lift still convert thigh-high heaters into HR-distance pull flies. If Buehler leans on the curve to steal strikes, watch for Henderson to sit spin and punish hangers; his discipline keeps him from expanding at the knees.

#Orioles #RedSox #MLB

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⚾️MLB Home Run Play #1:

Mariners @ Phillies- Kyle Schwarber vs. Bryce Miller

Citizens Bank Park is a favorable home-run venue, and Schwarber doesn’t need much help: 20.1% barrel rate, 94.7 mph average EV in 2025.

Miller leans hard on fastballs—~39.7% four-seam and ~17% sinker, with a deep secondary bag—but Schwarber has obliterated those pitch families this season (.488 wOBA vs four-seam, .458 vs sinkers). That combination draws a bright target zone: elevated four-seamers over the inner third and sinkers that don’t finish below the knees. If Seattle tries to flip him with split-change/knuckle-curve, Schwarber’s take-and-lift approach still creates mistake windows in plus counts.

With mild temps and light cross-breeze, any centered heater leaves in a hurry to the RF bullpen or upper-deck alley. Look for Philly to stack traffic in front of him; Schwarber’s early-count swing rate on heaters plus Miller’s propensity to show one first pitch could produce a first-AB nuke.

#Mariners #Phillies #MLB

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⚾️MLB Home Run Play #2:

Rangers @ Royals — Salvador Perez vs. Jack Leiter

Perez brings true carry power into an attackable rookie profile: a 15.4% barrel rate with 90.4 mph average EV in 2025 backs up the lift when he gets something up.

Leiter’s big heater/slider mix has flashed, but he’s also allowed an 11.7% barrel rate with average contact at 90.6 mph, and his four-seam sits high-velo without perfect command; when he’s behind, the slider backs up over the inner third.

Perez typically punishes firm spin he can pull, and Kansas City’s heat tonight should keep the air light even if Kauffman plays more neutral overall. Environment tag: neutral — hot, humid evening in KC, light winds.

Closing kicker: veteran plate coverage vs. a power four-seam/slider rookie with elevated barrels is the right kind of mismatch for Perez to yank one.

#Rangers #Royals #MLB

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⚾️MLB Home Run Play #1:

White Sox @ Braves — Matt Olson vs. Yoendrys Gómez

Olson remains a nightmare lefty power profile: 93.0 mph average EV, 57.7% hard-hit, 21.7% barrel rate with lift to all fields.

Gómez is still establishing baseline command at the MLB level; the fastball/slider mix can leak over the white when he chases strike-getters, and Olson punishes belt-high velocity.

Truist Park wears a “favorable” tag for lefty pull power, and with Atlanta heat (low-90s F) the air is lively enough to add a foot or two of carry. The sequencing edge is Olson’s: early-count heaters and any slider that pops out of hand get lifted; if Gómez tries to steal strikes, Olson’s bat speed and uphill plane give him slate-best one-swing odds. Add Atlanta’s bullpen’s typical middle-inning fastball usage and Olson is the value apex tonight.

#WhiteSox #Braves #MLB

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⚾️ MLB Home Run Prop #2

Padres @ Dodgers — Shohei Ohtani vs. Yu Darvish

Ohtani brings thunder and precision against a deep-arsenal righty. He’s carrying a 22.6 % barrel rate with a 94.4 mph average EV and top-tier expected damage, and his swing plane is built to punish splitters and sliders that finish above the knee.

Darvish’s mix (sinker/four-seam/split/slider/curve, plus variants) wins on deception, but the tradeoff is that a mis-spotted off-speed pitch can be launched.

Daytime Dodger Stadium is neutral-to-favorable (low-80s, dry), so well-struck balls carry. Look for Ohtani to sit split/slider after a first-pitch sinker; if he sees spin up or a firm heater at the letters, his combination of bat speed and loft turns it around in a hurry. Given Darvish’s sequencing breadth, the first mistake middle-away at 95+ EV is a souvenir to right.

#Padres #Dodgers #MLB

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⚾️ MLB Home Run Prop #1

Brewers @ Reds — Elly De La Cruz vs. José Quintana:

Great American is a cheat code when a hitter lifts the baseball, and Elly’s raw power plus bat speed gives him plenty of margin. He’s sitting on an 11.4% barrel rate and 90.9 mph average EV with top-of-the-scale bat speed; the path here is simple: don’t miss the changeup that leaks up, and be ready for the ambush heater if Quintana tries to steal an early strike.

Quintana’s mix (sinker/change/occasional four-seam) is about soft contact; when he gets underneath the ball or leaves arm-side, right-hand swings like Elly’s righty stroke can drive it to left. In Cincinnati’s favorable HR environment, even a slightly under-hit ball can play if the launch is right, and Elly’s 90th-percentile impact means his “misses” still travel.

If Quintana wants to live soft-away, look for Elly to adjust posture and yank an elevated change. Kicker: park + bat speed means any middle-up mistake is instant carry.

#Brewers #Reds #MLB

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@AlexCaruso

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MLB Home Run Play: Tigers @ Twins- Kerry Carpenter vs. Zebby Matthews

Carpenter brings thunder right now: a 2025 barrel rate at 14.1 % with a 91.2 mph average exit velocity and an average launch angle around 21.9°, the exact cocktail that turns pulled flies into damage.

Matthews, a rookie righty, has shown some give when contact happens — 10.7 % barrels allowed, 47.5 % hard-hit rate and 90.8 mph average EV in 2025 — so Detroit’s lefty slugger can sit hard early and hunt a four-seam he can lift.

Target Field usually plays neutral, and tonight looks warm and humid in Minneapolis, which is fine for carry but not wildly juiced; call the run environment neutral with pop-up storms in the area.

Carpenter’s everyday role minimizes platoon or pinch-hit risk, and his swing path plus current batted-ball quality make him Detroit’s best bet for a long ball in this matchup.

#Tigers #Twins #MLB

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MLB Home Run Play: Braves @ Guardians- Matt Olson vs. Slade Cecconi

Olson’s bat is built for one big swing: 94.9 mph average EV, 55.7% hard-hit, 14.5% barrel, and a quality-of-contact underpinning (.384 xwOBA). He’s also thumped four-seamers in 2025 (RV/100 1.5, .589 SLG) and handles arm-side sink well.

Cecconi’s big-league contact allowed has run hot this year — 91.8 mph EV, 47.9% hard-hit, 13.1% barrel — and his fastball/slider looks can leak to the pull side when elevated.

Progressive Field typically plays neutral for home runs, and an 80-ish degree evening is not a major drag. If Cecconi’s four-seam rides to the belt or a slider backs up, Olson’s lift to right-center makes him the best single-swing candidate in this game.

#Braves #Guardians #MLB

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@AlexCaruso My brother in Christ how do you have the audacity to charge regular working people over $100 a month for your picks

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MLB Home Run Play: Angels @ Athletics — Brent Rooker vs. Yusei Kikuchi

Rooker’s bat is thunder—14.1–14.9% barrel rate with a 90.9–91.5 mph EV—and he thrives on velocity and spin that land arm-side.

Kikuchi’s four-seam/sweeper profile plays when he’s above the hands; miss down or over the inner third, and Rooker’s lift to left is immediate.

Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento has played favorable, and a hot, mid-90s evening is rocket fuel for pulled flies.

Two pressure points: Kikuchi’s barrels-allowed clip ticked up when the heater flattens, and his slider backs up to righties when release drifts; Rooker’s simplified move punishes both. In a smallish, warm yard with the ball jumping, one inner-half fastball is all Rooker needs.

#Angels #Athletics #MLB

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MLB Home Run Play: Brewers @ Reds- Christian Yelich vs. Nick Martinez

Yelich gets the green light in a homer-happy Great American Ball Park against Nick Martinez’s sinker/cutter/changeup mix.

Yelich’s quality of contact remains bankable in 2025 (8.9% barrel rate, 90.3 mph average EV, 47.2% hard-hit, .338 xwOBA), and he’s especially comfortable staying inside cutters and riding changeups to the pull gap.

Martinez has been hittable when he’s behind, allowing a .386 wOBA, 10.3% barrel rate and 90.9 mph average EV overall this season, so any elevated heater or back-up cutter is in danger.

Weather adds a nudge: warm Cincinnati air with light winds and a tiny breeze out makes the park play even more homer-friendly giving Yelich a good look to go yard.

#Brewers #Reds #MLB

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Diamondbacks @ Rockies- Ketel Marte vs. Bradley Blalock Home Run Play:

Coors plus a contact-tilting righty is a green light for Marte’s switch-hit power. The bat’s been loud: 14.7% barrel rate, 91.2 mph avg EV with authoritative pull from the left side.

Blalock flashes carry on the four-seam but has been homer-touched in his debut run (1.87 HR/9, 43.1 IP), and Coors punishes anything up-and-arm-side.

Weather is favorable—upper-80s, modest L-to-R breeze—so anything barreled with proper loft carries. Arizona’s middle stacks Marte in volume spots with vanishing pinch-hit risk sets up Marte HR probability as the highest on the slate.

If Blalock starts with firm heaters to steal strike one, Marte’s left-handed path to a pulled fly into the jetstream is clean.

#Diamondbacks #Rockies #MLB

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Phillies @ Nationals- Kyle Schwarber vs. Brad Lord Home Run Play:

⚾️Schwarber’s 2025 bat speed and thump are elite: 20.1% barrel rate, 94.7 mph avg EV, .422 xwOBA, and he’s likely atop the order for max PAs.

⚾️Lord’s story is great and his line is tidy (MLB 0.74 HR/9 over ~85 IP), but he’s fastball-forward with a low-slot look and developing change/slider—profiles Schwarber historically lifts when he’s on time.

🏟️Nationals Park rates favorable-neutral by heat tonight—low winds, mid-80s and humid—good carry without a huge jet stream. The Nationals’ relief group has struggled overall this year (worst bullpen ERA headlines), so any early exit keeps Schwarber live late.

#Phillies #Nationals #MLB

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Dodgers @ Angels- Shohei Ohtani vs. Kyle Hendricks:

Hendricks survives on precision and changeup fade, but any sinker or change left up turns into loud contact. That’s lethal against Ohtani’s current form: 22.5–22.6% barrel rate, 94.4–94.5 mph average EV, and a .418–.420 wOBA with a .425–.428 xwOBA.

Ohtani punishes below-average velocity, especially when pitchers try to front-door the sinker; his lift through the inner third sends easy carry to right.

Angel Stadium trends neutral most nights, and the evening marine layer is manageable when the ball is hit 105+; Ohtani lives there.

Hendricks’ sequencing—first-pitch sinkers, two-strike cambio—works only if he’s on the edges; Ohtani’s zone control forces him in. Add the lineup protection around him and Hendricks’ margin shrinks.

This is the cleanest pitch-mix exploit of the game: slow stuff in the zone versus the league’s most efficient damage hitter.

#Dodgers #Angels #MLB

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⚾️Braves @ Mets- Juan Soto vs. Carlos Carrasco:

Carrasco’s 2025 line shows real long-ball risk (6.18 ERA with 1.5 HR/9 highlighted by multiple outlets), and his sinker/slider mix hasn’t missed barrels.

Soto remains Soto: 54.4% hard-hit rate, 15.4% barrel rate and a .398 wOBA/.400 xwOBA—he feasts on right-handed sinkers that run back to the zone.

Citi Field has trended more favorable in warm summer air, with carry picking up to right-center in recent weeks, which matters for Soto’s opposite-field missiles and pulled tanks alike.

Carrasco’s sequencing—sinkers early, sliders when behind—lets Soto hunt sinkers to win counts; if Carrasco flips a get-ahead slider, Soto’s plate coverage still drives it. With the Mets’ lineup deep, protection ensures strikes, and Soto has been in a HR groove lately. The bat-to-ball plus selectivity here make him the board’s safest swing.

#Braves #Mets #MLB

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Rockies @ Cardinals- Willson Contreras vs. Kyle Freeland

Even in a pitcher-leaning yard, Contreras versus a contact-oriented lefty is the most value swing on the board.

Contreras’ 2025 base (14.8% barrel rate, 92.7 mph average EV, 51.2% hard-hit) plays everywhere, and Freeland’s batted-ball allowed profile invites lift: a 46.3% hard-hit rate with a .508 xSLG and 9.6% barrels allowed this season.

The path is straightforward—hunt sinkers that flatten and cutters that back up—and Contreras’ ability to drive the ball to the pull gap punishes any miss at the belt.

Busch carries a suppressing tag for straight carry, which keeps mishits in the yard, but squared balls still fly; the key is getting something thigh-high before Freeland steals strikes with soft away.

With St. Louis likely to see multiple right-on-left plate appearances before Colorado turns it over, the second-time-through is the blast window. One elevated two-seam and his line-drive loft turns into back-spun damage.

#Rockies #Cardinals #MLB