Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek)

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[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

Every capital market shares one fact: investors & traders create stories about data to determine prices. To outperform, you need to know the next chapter of those stories before others do. That’s where we come in.

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[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

3/3 ...In the end, ANT’s S-1 is a good reminder that AI will change everything except what makes for a winning stock.

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

1/3 @AnthropicAI's S-1 is a master class in how to write a bullet-proof risks section (+90 pages) but also reveals 3 notable facts. 1: ANT has yet to settle on the financial/operating metrics by which management will guide the enterprise...

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

2/3 ...2: While its current business model is asset light, that is set to change materially. 3: ANT already has a large cash hoard, so much of the IPO proceeds will likely go to existing shareholders or to satisfy stock grant tax liabilities...

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

2/2 ...Worth knowing: $NVDA went public in 1999, so not every IPO at the Dot Com peak was a bad one.

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

1/2 Inflation adjusted, the proceeds from every US IPO in 1999 totaled $133 bn. $SPCX & @AnthropicAI alone will raise around $180 bn this year. The AI trade favors scale, for good and/or bad...

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

2/2 ...broad-based: 9 of $SMH’s top 10 holdings are down over the last 100 days, while 9 of $IGV’s top 10 are up. The market priced in too much AI disruption for Software & too much earnings durability for Semis. We expect further Semis to Software rotation through year end.

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

1/2 Since our June 8th call to start shifting from Semis to Software, $IGV has outperformed $SMH by +26.0 points. That rotation is unwinding Semis’ record +84.1 point, nearly 6 sigma 100-day outperformance through May 13th, the most extreme divergence since 2010. This shift is...

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

2/2 ....The S&P 500’s current net margin of 14.9%, much better than its 5-year average of 12.7%, is therefore not simply due to Tech earnings. Rather, it is a function of better corporate profitability across most groups.

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

1/2 The US large cap Tech sector is enjoying very high net margins relative to its recent history, but 6 other S&P sectors are also expected to post above-average profitability this quarter...

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

The US corporate debt market is signaling macro worries, with the difference between High Yield and Investment Grade spreads at levels last seen in late March 2026, during the initial spike in oil prices at the start of the US/Iran conflict.

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

The risks section of @AnthropicAI's S-1 is about the same length as Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein (70k vs 75k words).

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

The S&P 500’s current forward 12-month earnings multiple of 18.7x is the lowest since the March/April 2025 US trade policy crisis. A combination of high yields, elevated oil prices, and AI CapEx uncertainty is hurting investor confidence more than recent S&P price action shows.

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

Futures expect the Fed to hold rates steady at this week’s policy meeting but still discount 2-3 more hikes over the next year.

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

US Q3 earnings season continues to be lackluster as compared to Q1 and Q2 2026, with the only bright spot being a bit of incremental earnings leverage.  This week’s results need to be better.

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

DataTrek's Nick Colas was on @CNBCOvertime with @michaelsantoli and @MelissaLeeCNBC discussing the latest moves in bond markets and K-shaped economy. Watch below! https://t.co/ZgZBECcBcv

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

DataTrek's Nick Colas was on @CNBCOvertime with @michaelsantoli and @MelissaLeeCNBC discussing the latest moves in bond markets and K-shaped economy. Watch below! https://t.co/ZgZBECcBcv

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

2/2 ...VCs now write those sorts of checks, keeping companies private for longer. Separately, Musk himself has had trouble valuing $TSLA. His take-private bid was cheap, but he also declined to buy back shares in late 2022 and his 2025 purchase is still under water today.

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

1/2 $TSLA may soon merge w/ $SPCX, but its public company history is a case study in how stock markets fund/value disruptive tech at scale. In the decade after its IPO, TSLA raised $16 bn from stock investors at ever-rising valuations thanks to its breakthrough success in EVs...

[Nick Colas & Jessica Rabe (DataTrek) @DataTrekMB]

Indexes like the S&P 500 compound at 10-11% because a handful of (mostly Tech) companies beat the odds.