Data Orbital

Led by @George_Khalaf, we're an analytics & survey firm crafting data-driven solutions for our clients. Top 10 pollster in America by @FiveThirtyEight.

[Data Orbital @Data_Orbital]

Let's talk about where our Arizona Absentee Ballot/Early Voting (AB/EV) data comes from! 🤔 We use a combination of sources to bring you the most up-to-date information available to the public. Our data may differ from other early vote trackers because we pull directly from multiple county sources and the Arizona Secretary of State. Others may be able to get data in different frequencies than we can.

[Data Orbital @Data_Orbital]

At SPN, our own @George_Khalaf will present policy recommendations from case studies on ESA public comment, appeals, rulemaking, and state ESA handbooks to help these programs better serve families.

#SchoolChoice #ESA @StatePolicy

[First Day @firstdaypr]

From passing ESA legislation to earning parent trust—how do we get there? Join @George_Khalaf for “Design to Deliver” at SPN. Data, insights, & real strategies to make school choice work for families. #SchoolChoice #ParentVoice @KKBathgate @jemcenaney @StatePolicy

[Data Orbital @Data_Orbital]

As AZ tobacco tax revenue declines, GOP voters in the state are open to change:

📊 62% support extending the tax to vape & alternatives

📉 27% oppose

New @DataOrbital poll (Feb 25–27), commissioned by @AZFTF

Details here ➡️https://t.co/aY5JU2LdUm

[Data Orbital @Data_Orbital]

New Data Orbital & @AZFreeNews 2026 GOP Primary Gubernatorial Poll!

Read the article and access the survey toplines and crosstabs here: https://t.co/cdd6PgYoyq

[George Khalaf @George_Khalaf]

Monday morning #AZ update

~160k ballots were counted yesterday.

~270k ballots left to report. Of those, ~33.4k provisional. Of those, ~10k are from Maricopa.

Provisional meaning many won't be counted for various reasons (different than any ballots being cured for mismatched signatures).

I expect ballot counting to wrap up today.

No change in AZ Legislative make up. Republicans hold a 17/13 margin in the State Senate (a pick up of one) and a 33/27 margin in the State House (a pick up of two).

In AZ06 (Cong Ciscomani/Engel), I expect Ciscomani to grow his margin today. He is in a strong position to hold the AZ06 seat.

Cong Ciscomani now +2,093 (.6%)

AZ on pace for ~78.5% turnout (a bit lower than the high watermark of 79.9% set in 2020).

#Election2024

[George Khalaf @George_Khalaf]

Update on the #AZ US Senate race.

There is not a path for Lake to make up the margin against Gallego.

#Election2024

[George Khalaf @George_Khalaf]

#AZ US Senate Update…

First Pima drop of the day:

22,094 votes

Gallego 54.8%
Lake 42.6%

Nets Gallego 2,703 votes (+12.2% margin)

Overall Pima county is Gallego +22.47% so as expected, this drop is better than the overall margin.

~90k non-provisional ballots remain in Pima County.

[Data Orbital @Data_Orbital]

RT @George_Khalaf: For those awaiting #AZ results in the US Senate race…here is what to watch for:

1) How do subsequent updates from Maric…

[George Khalaf @George_Khalaf]

Happy Saturday!

#AZ Update

About 150k ballots were counted yesterday.

~602k ballots left to report. Of those, ~45k provisional. Provisional meaning many won't be counted so likely ballots remaining probably closer to ~565k.

We expect updates from various counties throughout the day.

Reps gained in all of the legislative races I mentioned Thursday in both the State House and State Senate. State House currently 35/25 and State Senate is 16/14, if all leads hold. Still watching races in LD2, LD9, LD17 and LD23.

I view LD4 as locked in for Republicans at this point.

For those following AZ06 (Cong Ciscomani/Engel), Cochise county (a very Republican county) has a broken tabulation machine and won't see much updates until Sunday. Hold all judgements on that race until more Cochise ballots post - even if Pima ballots give Engel another lead.

Cong Ciscomani now +1,795 (.5%)

US Senate - Gallego lead now +32,417 (1.1%)

Yesterday's numbers in Pinal County (~24k ballots) were not what Lake wanted to see to be able to close the Gallego lead. All other counties were inline. Todays updates from Maricopa and Pima will give us a clear picture if a path for Lake to take the lead remains.

President - Trump now up 6.4%

Will have a couple more updates later today.

[George Khalaf @George_Khalaf]

#AZ Update

Small update from Maricopa County and we now have estimated totals from every county.

~758k ballots left to report. Of those, ~45k provisional.

We expect one additional update from Maricopa and updates from the other 14 counties throughout the day.

Reps gained in all of the legislative races (in Maricopa County) I mentioned yesterday in both the State House and State Senate.

US Senate - Gallego lead now +39,676 (1.5%)

President - Trump now up 6.1%

#ElectionDay

[George Khalaf @George_Khalaf]

Afternoon update...

*UNOFFICIAL* outstanding ballots left to be counted according to the 15 county recorders in #AZ.

There are ~953k ballots left, with ~49.8k of those being provisional.

We are expecting one drop from Maricopa this evening between 6pm and 7pm MDT. We do not have a lot of intel about what other counties will be reporting today/this evening.

We are now on pace for 78.9% turnout (slightly lower than 2020).

#Election2024

[George Khalaf @George_Khalaf]

Good Morning!

*UNOFFICIAL* outstanding ballots left to be reported *THAT WE KNOW ABOUT* in #AZ.

There are thousands more ballots that we do not have confirmed yet so I have not listed them below. There are likely between 1million to 1.2million ballots left to be counted and our chart below accounts for ~830k.

We except (hope) that Maricopa County reports most-if not all-of the 370k "late early" ballots that have been signature verified and ready to be tabulated.

Will be updating throughout the day!

#Election2024

[George Khalaf @George_Khalaf]

What we know in #AZ with ~1.85mil ballots reported...as a caveat, these are more than 95% early ballots received as of Tuesday/Wednesday of last week. Very little Election Day voters.

1) Trump in a strong position to win AZ
2) Lake in a tough position to be able to win
3) Reps look good to hold both chambers of State Legislature
4) A lot riding on Election Day/Late Earlies for Cong Ciscomani. A lot of Reps outstanding there
5) Jungle Primaries/Rank Choice voting loses big

We don't expect another large batch of Election Day votes to be reported from Maricopa for at least another hour or so.

#ElectionDay

[Data Orbital @Data_Orbital]

@George_Khalaf Final breakdowns of Pima County Election Day in-person voters by Congressional District and Legislative District.

This only includes in-person #ElectionDay📷📷 voting and not early ballots dropped off.

[George Khalaf @George_Khalaf]

Pima County Election Day Update:

As of 7:30pm MDT (9:30pm EDT)

*Final Election Day In-Person Voter Update. Could have a couple more votes be reported but very close to final numbers.*

Total - 71,899

Rep - 25,078 (35.73%)
Dem - 18,277 (25.42%)
Oth - 28,035 (38.99%)

Reps finish with +7,410 more ballots than Dems (was 7,644 at the 6:30pm update). Reps decreased again in the last hour but maintain an overall lead.

This only includes in-person #ElectionDay voting and not early ballots dropped off (yes, #AZ allows that).

[Data Orbital @Data_Orbital]

Second to last update from Pima on Election Day in-person voters!

Final will come after polls close in 26 minutes.

#election2024 #AZ

[George Khalaf @George_Khalaf]

Pima County Election Day Update:

As of 6:30pm MDT (8:30pm EDT)

*Will post one more update after polls close*

Total - 69,242
Rep - 25,078 (36.22%)
Dem - 17,434 (25.18%)
Oth - 26,827 (38.74%)

Reps +7,644 more ballots than Dems (was 7,665 at the 5:30pm update). Reps decreased slightly in the last hour but maintain an overall lead.

This only includes in-person #ElectionDay voting and not early ballots dropped off (yes, #AZ allows that).

[Data Orbital @Data_Orbital]

Key county to keep watching for all those tracking #AZ #electionday2024 results.

[George Khalaf @George_Khalaf]

Very important county to watch in #AZ. Growing county that has trended strongly for Republicans over the past 10 years. Always lagged in turnout but on pace for record turn out in 2024.

#electionday2024

[George Khalaf @George_Khalaf]

Pima County Election Day Update:

As of 5:30pm MDT (7:30pm EDT)

Total - 63,515
Rep - 23,484 (36.97%)
Dem - 15,819 (24.91%)
Oth - 24,300 (38.26%)

Reps +7,665 more ballots than Dems (was 7,461 at the 4:30pm update).

This only includes in-person #ElectionDay📷 voting and not early ballots dropped off (yes, #AZ allows that).

[Data Orbital @Data_Orbital]

~2.5 more hours until polls close in #AZ! New Pima County update below.

#ElectionDay

[George Khalaf @George_Khalaf]

Pima County Election Day Update:

As of 4:30pm MDT (6:30pm EDT)

Total - 56,872
Rep - 21,426 (37.67%)
Dem - 13,965 (24.56%)
Oth - 21,557 (37.90%)

Reps +7,461 more ballots than Dems (was 7,062 at the 3:30pm update).

This only includes in-person #ElectionDay voting and not early ballots dropped off (yes, #AZ allows that).

[Data Orbital @Data_Orbital]

Voting locations close in ~3.5 hours in #AZ.

Anyone in line before 7pm local time will be able to vote!

#ElectionDay

[George Khalaf @George_Khalaf]

Pima County Election Day Update:

As of 3:30pm MDT (5:30pm EDT)

Total - 50,767
Rep - 19,370 (38.15%)
Dem - 12,344 (24.32%)
Oth - 19,123 (37.67%)

Reps +7,026 more ballots than Dems (was 6,620 at the 2:30pm update).

This only includes in-person #ElectionDay📷 voting and not early ballots dropped off (yes, #AZ allows that).

[George Khalaf @George_Khalaf]

Breakdowns of Pima County Election Day in-person voters by Congressional District and Legislative District.

This only includes in-person #ElectionDay📷 voting and not early ballots dropped off (yes, #AZ allows that).

Positive numbers for Congressman Ciscomani in CD6 and for Rep team in swing district LD17.