David McMillan

Financial Economist and
Supporter of Carlisle United

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

@DanNeidle Because their policy is simple: find the level where they can claim 50.1% of taxpayers save about £40, and tax the rest much (much) more. Remember, the sum of ambition under the snp is about £33k

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

We are told that there is no rip-off with #UK #petrol prices.... Petrol price (RHS) remains significantly higher than oil price (LHS; which is in £'s to adjust for any exchange rate effect) @hmtreasury @CMAgovUK

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

@thetimes Taxes are higher, interest rates (Treasury yields) are higher, this is not exactly pro-growth... Time to go

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

@dsmitheconomics Never mind the accountability of the CB, writing a letter that can be done by ChatGPT is not accountability. Time to review how the current system is functioning and see how it can be improved

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

@dsmitheconomics An economist in charge of fiscal policy opens up a question about the other branch of economic policy – has CB indy worked? In benign times, nobody has questioned it, but during a crisis, there is an argument to be had... –

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

@dsmitheconomics not just inflation rates but its effect on growth, real wages, investment, productivity etc. Now left with a swollen balance sheet and a Monetary Policy system of plenty that rewards banks for just parking their money unproductively.

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

Hopefully any new #UK Chancellor will get the #BoE to reduce the level of reserves. This is part of monetary policy failings! And remember taxpayers are footing the bill for the payment of interest on this free money for banks. #interestrates

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

@dsmitheconomics The triple lock was political expediency and never based in economic reality. Should have gone a long time ago. Means testing of winter fuel is also the correct approach. Its all been part of a transfer of wealth from the young to the old

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

@FT Is this the same Labour party that wants 16 year olds to have the vote. Something magical must happen on that turn of the diary page. Perhaps try education at school around the benefits and risks of social media, and how to use in a safer way

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

@BBCNews No. A ban should always be the last option. It is the choice of the authoritarian (or desperate). A democratic society should not be engaging in this but is part of the general drift, esp. since covid, of overreach by the gov

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

@business Bailey is (always) wrong. Sell at a lower price than bought = a loss. Active selling pushes up LT yields, this impacts real investment, damages the economy. As for future QE? No - it is a failed policy, failed after fin crisis and esp after covid (but gave us lots of inflation)

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

#UK #BoE uses active #QT this raises LT bond yields = two negative outcomes. Business delay investment and gov borrowing costs rise. This depresses growth and cause LT bond yields rise again. BoE also wants base rates up. They misjudge economy and need to go. Rates need to fall!

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

@YuanfenYang @FT Except while the initial inflation may be caused, currently, by an oil price spike, it is embedded by excessive government spending. We should have learnt this after 2022

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

#UK #economic probs
1. Lack of productivity = stagnant real wages
2. Low bus investment (below pre-brexit trend)
3. Banks not lending, interest on reserves = park money at BoE
4. Firms not taking risks due to xs reg's and higher tax
5. Pension funds not investing in UK stocks

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

#UK’s #economic problem – lack of productivity, why – lack of business investment, why – lack of lending from banks, why – money is parked at BoE, why – interest on reserves = free money. Time to end banks earning interest on the money they hold at BoE

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

@BBCNews So, when members of the finance committee, the treasurer and auditor all resigned and when she told snp members not to question the finances, that was her being deceived...

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

@SkyNews And what happ'd six years ago - the gov (yes, diff colour) said stay at home, don't do anything, we'll provide for you. And what has any gov done to catch-up on lost years - what extra training, education, provision for social activities. we are here because the gov put us here

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

This is what lies at the heart of the #UK's #economic problems. The divergent paths between #productivity and #inflation. No party has an answer to this and higher BoE #interestrates is not going to help (log scale for the data)

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

#oilprice shocks historically lead to lower #growth and even recessions. But what will really tip the #UK economy into one is interest rate rises, especially when policy is already restrictive. How will that encourage the needed new investment...? #interestrates

[David McMillan @DaveGMcM]

@timespolitics Not a single thing about investment and productivity, this is the real solution to our economic problems. Want more revenue? allow North Sea drilling and cut their tax - by economic-magic total tax take will rise! The gov. support you talk about will cause inflation (see 2022)