THE SPACEX IPO LOOKS LIKE PEAK BUBBLE INSANITY.
A company generating around $19B in revenue is trying to enter public markets at a $1.75 TRILLION valuation.
That is nearly 100x revenue.
Not profits.
Revenue.
To justify this valuation, SpaceX would need to grow from a $19B revenue company into a business generating:
• Nearly $90B revenue just to trade at 20x sales
• Around $177B revenue just to trade at 10x sales
• And over $350B revenue just to trade at 5x sales
That means SpaceX needs to become larger than some of the biggest companies on Earth just to make the IPO valuation look reasonable.
And even then, investors may still get terrible returns if growth slows even slightly.
Public investors are basically being asked to pay today for growth that may never happen.
At this valuation, SpaceX already needs:
• Perfect execution
• Nonstop hypergrowth
• Expanding margins and zero major setbacks for years.
One bad cycle destroys the entire valuation story.
Even mainstream analysts are struggling to defend the number.
Morningstar reportedly values SpaceX at less than half the IPO target.
Aswath Damodaran also valued it hundreds of billions below the proposed range.
And the craziest part?
Retail investors will probably still rush in because:
• Elon Musk
• AI hype
• FOMO and the belief that “this company can only go up.”
This is no longer investing.
This is public markets being used as exit liquidity for one of the most aggressively priced IPOs ever attempted.