David Mendoza

UCR ‘20

[ethan @Ethanfracisco]

im fully prepared to leave gov blank on my ballot unless becerra shows a serious departure from newsom and the CA Dem establishment of the past

[dib @kimlipgrabsback]

#RecallBecerra

[Mason Pressler @Press4BC]

Sheeple.

[David Mendoza @DavidAM_1998]

@diazmarg @BryanWinsAgain @TomSteyer @TomHQ Would greatly appreciate one too please!

[Tom Steyer @TomSteyer]

https://t.co/1uka5rohQP

[David Mendoza @DavidAM_1998]

I understand why he endorsed Becerra, but in all likelihood I’ll be leaving this race blank in November. California needs change, not another do-nothing corporate Democrat.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

CNN: Tom Steyer (D) concedes race for California governor

Steyer: “It would be a travesty for Steve Hilton to win the governorship, and Californians must unite behind Xavier Becerra to ensure he does not.”

[David Mendoza @DavidAM_1998]

@ohgoditsmatthew Xavier Boughtcerra is going to be such a mediocre governor. Essentially Newsom without any charisma or leadership skills.

[Matthew @ohgoditsmatthew]

I’m gonna be leaving the Governor question blank in November. In good conscience, I can’t vote for Xavier Becerra. He’ll become our de facto governor when the race gets certified — likely with artificial record support because of a Blue Wave election.

[David Mendoza @DavidAM_1998]

Steyer really should’ve done more to boost Bianco (taking votes away from Hilton). In the same way Adam Schiff boosted Steve Garvey back in 2024.

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

CA Governor’s Race: Where things stand

At this point, I view Steve Hilton to be clearly favored.

The cleanest way to frame the race is this: if VoteHub’s current turnout estimates are right, and if late mail in every county keeps breaking the way it has so far, Steyer would win the remaining ballots by 4.2 points. This would still leave Hilton winning by 2.0 points, with a roughly 192,000-vote margin. Steyer needs to win the remaining trail by 11.1 points to catch him.

There are reasons to think the trail could keep improving for Steyer. In major counties with at least 20,000 mail ballots counted, his day-to-day improvement against Hilton has generally moved left:

Los Angeles: +13.3, +15.3, +18.7
San Diego: +13.2, +16.7
Orange: +10.0, +11.4, +8.4
San Bernardino: +5.7, +2.7
Riverside: -1.2, +4.7, +2.2
Santa Clara: +13.8, +15.0, +16.0
San Francisco: +15.2, +19.2
Solano: +9.5, +10.0, +10.2
San Mateo: +14.7, +15.2

So yes, the trail is generally getting better for Steyer. But it is not getting better fast enough in the major counties to make it easy to believe the remaining vote will be 7 points bluer than what we have seen over the last few days.

Our current fairway estimate does assume some continued leftward movement. Even then, Steyer wins the rest of the trail by about 6.7 points, which would still leave Hilton ahead by 1.4 points.

So how did Steyer get into this position?

He is doing well in the trail San Diego, Los Angeles County, and the Bay Area. But he is struggling almost everywhere else. The biggest weakness for Democrats, including Steyer, has been in the Central Valley and Inland Empire.

That was somewhat expected in the early vote, given that these are heavily Hispanic areas where Biden performed well in 2020 but where Democrats slipped in 2024. But the late-mail trail has also been weaker than Democrats needed, and when it has improved, much of the gain has gone to Becerra rather than Steyer.

Steyer is getting what he needed from his strongest regions, with the Bay Area and Los Angeles moving even further in his direction. But he is not getting enough from Hispanic-heavy areas, which means the big urban counties would have to shift unrealistically far left to make up the gap.

The completed or nearly completed counties are also not especially encouraging for Democrats. Republicans are at 36.3% in Solano, which is almost fully reported, compared to Trump’s 33.7% there in 2020. In Kings, Republicans are at 59.7%, compared to Trump’s 54.9% in 2020.

That is limited data, but it suggests California may not be on track to match Biden-era Democratic margins across much of the state. It is hard to see Democrats matching Biden’s numbers in places like Kern if they are running closer to Harris in Kings.

That said, primaries can produce weird turnout effects. Democrats really need the more white, liberal parts of the state, which Solano and Kings are not, to show extremely strong late Democratic turnout.

For Steyer, that means tomorrow’s numbers likely need to move meaningfully left: Los Angeles above 20, Orange closer to 15, Santa Clara around 18, and similar improvements elsewhere.

Why does Steyer still have a chance?

Because California late mail can be volatile, and the remaining vote in the biggest urban counties with more White liberals could still get substantially bluer.

Turnout isn't certain. Steyer would love some eventual turnout in blue areas to be higher than my estimates right now, but it isn't likely.

But the core issue remains: Steyer is not doing well enough in the trail outside places like San Francisco, Alameda, Santa Clara, and Los Angeles. And we have a couple completed counties coming in where it doesn't look great for Dems. He still has a path, but it is narrow, and Hilton remains clearly favored.

One note on turnout estimates: Giving it a glance, VoteHub’s current estimate is a mix of DDHQ and the AP. We are closer to DDHQ in assuming roughly 40,000–50,000 more outstanding Alameda ballots than AP, while we are closer to AP on total expected turnout, at about 9.56 million statewide.

[Danni @danni_wang527]

“You shouldn’t have to be a billionaire to run on single-payer, or to challenge monopolies, or to call out a corrupt system when you see it. But the system depends on its ability to crush anyone who tries.” -@TomSteyer

[Daniel Miller @DanielNMiller]

The polls have closed in California and I’m here at Xavier Becerra’s election night party in downtown L.A. The scene outside the venue is a stark reminder of the issue that has dominated this election season in the Southland.

[Christopher Cadelago @ccadelago]

Never forget: Javier Bacarria

[Arthouse Shawn Levy @firagawalkwthme]

California election results coming in

[Adam Carlson @admcrlsn]

Stick a fork in it.

Dr. Adam Hamawy — a combat trauma surgeon and veteran who volunteered in Gaza and the West Bank, who saved Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s life — will be the next Congressman from NJ-12.

He was backed by Bernie Sanders, AOC, the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Justice Democrats, Our Revolution & many other lawmakers/groups on the left.

[sam parker @samprkr]

Ro PLEASE

[Tom Steyer @TomSteyer]

Kicked off Pride Month last night at GYM Sportsbar in West Hollywood.

It's one thing for someone to be there with you 90% of the time. I'm going to be there with you the other 10% of the time.

I can't sing (Kat and I sang "Won't Back Down") but I can wish you a Happy Pride.

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

Democratic candidate for governor Tom Steyer rides the Los Angeles Metro on Election Day

#CaliforniaGovernor

Credit: Getty Images

[Tom Steyer @TomSteyer]

Let's bring it home. Vote tomorrow for a California you can afford.

[TomHQ @TomHQ]

The PPIC poll dropped tonight, but it's old news — the numbers are from about two weeks ago. The most recent polling has this as a tied race. In a race this close, every vote matters. Get your ballot in by June 2!

[David Mendoza @DavidAM_1998]

Porter’s really gonna play spoiler in this election 🫤

[Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 @PollTracker2024]

PPIC poll | 5/14-5/18

California Governor jungle primary 2026

(Top two vote getters advance)

🟦Xavier Becerra 23%
🟥Steve Hilton 20%
🟦Tom Steyer 15%
🟥Chad Bianco 13%
🟦Katie Porter 12%
🟦Matt Mahan 7%
🟦Antonio Villaraigosa 5%
🟦Tony Thurmond 1%