David Cadier

Senior Research Fellow @IRSEM1 Visiting Professor @collegeofeurope Associate @CERI_SciencesPo
FPA, EU-Russia, Central Europe, Populism in IR

[David Cadier @DavidCadier]

Très heureux d'avoir contribué au numéro que la @RFSP_revue consacre à la guerre russo-ukrainienne. Mon article propose une perspective de longue durée sur la réaction de l'Union Européenne et l'évolution de ses politiques à l’égard de l’Ukraine 1/3
https://t.co/XkRSJrnREu

[David Cadier @DavidCadier]

J'ai eu exactement la même réaction en lisant cette tribune, méconnaissance de ce que sont les RI en tant que discipline et malhonnêteté dans l'association avec la géopolitique de MacKinder & co. Une sorte de théorie du grand remplacement académique par la "majorité martyrisée"

[Olivier Schmitt @Olivier1Schmitt]

Il y a beaucoup de choses fausses et de mensonges dans cette tribune qui traduit surtout la panique d’un mandarin de voir sa domination lui échapper, mais je vais seulement relever qu’associer la discipline des Relations Internationales à la « géopolitique » (science forcément un peu nazie), c’est faire preuve d’une immense incompétence et/ou malhonnêteté.
C’est faire comme si une discipline scientifique particulièrement active internationalement, disposant de conférences et de revues phares dans la science politique ainsi que de débats théoriques et méthodologiques très actifs n’existait pas.
On peut donc se passer de ces avis totalement à côté de la plaque.

https://t.co/m7dlaPvi6m

[Alex Cadier @alexcadier]

NEW 🚨

US MOVING MORE ASSETS OUT OF EUROPE.

A military source close to the matter tells me the US has briefed European allies that it will reduce its force posture in Europe by 50% when it comes to deep strike capabilities.

This includes aircraft carriers and jets.

The US said it expects European allies to make up that gap and present their plans to do so before the Ankara summit.

Allies took note and SACEUR will come up with a plan for Europe to replace the outgoing capabilities though we don’t expect it will be like for like. 

The announcement was made at a meeting held at NATO HQ on Friday where Alexander Velez-Green, Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary of War for Policy briefed European allies. 

I understand that US assets taken from Europe will be moved to the Middle East and Pacific regions.

Separately a NATO diplomat told me that the US has long warned it would shift assets away from Europe and this could represent an opportunity for European allies to step up and maximise their capabilities in Europe to better calibrate deterrence against Russia while reducing reliance on the US.

Full story on @TVPWorld_com soon.

[Ryan Evans @EvansRyan202]

Of note, the author of this piece was Lithuania's ambassador to NATO:

"the current debate around possible reductions reveals a deeply unhealthy European tendency: a kind of European “hunger games” — a scramble in which countries compete against one another to secure a scarce U.S. military force presence, much like the dystopian contest in the film of the same name...

The competition that results is often strategically incoherent. Instead of encouraging European cohesion, it triggers internal rivalries and political positioning precisely when Europe should be focused on coordination and collective capability-building."

[David Cadier @DavidCadier]

"This is bad news for conventional deterrence [in Europe and Asia]"

[Franz-Stefan Gady @HoansSolo]

A short- to mid-term military risk isn't the US running out of interceptors or PGMs in this conflict per se. It is the opportunity costs. This US-Israeli raiding approach to warfare, if it continues at the current operational tempo for weeks, could draw down INDOPACOM & EUCOM stocks that will take many years to replenish, further weakening US military readiness. Destroy Iran's military capabilities in 2026, and you may not be able to execute your preferred warfighting concept in a great power conflict in Europe or Asia for a couple of years. From a pure military capabilities perspective, this is bad news for conventional deterrence.

[Daniel Tilles @danieltilles1]

A lot of misinformation about Tusk's remarks today on Poland and nuclear weapons. Here's what he actually said:

"We will cooperate with our allies, including France, which has made this specific offer, and as our own autonomous capabilities increase, we will also strive to...1/2

[David Cadier @DavidCadier]

The dividends of p̶e̶a̶c̶e̶ stubbornness

[David French @DavidAFrench]

Very wise, from France. The stubborn French insistence on military autonomy is paying dividends. Their independent deterrent and independent arms industry provides a potent backstop to American faithlessness.

Oh, and La Marseillaise is a heck of an anthem.

[Laura Kayali @LauKaya]

French nukes: It's hard to overstate how much of a sea change it is that countries such as the Netherlands, Poland, Belgium, Germany are open to talking with France about nuclear deterrence. We have been getting used to it — but it's a major, major shift.

[Diploweb @diploweb]

1er anniversaire. Trump II. Quoi de neuf ? E. Chelle et D. Cadier
https://t.co/WS8MUrgmK6
Podcast et synthèse rédigée sur @diploweb
@radionotredame @radiorcf @IRSEM1 @ElisaChelle @DavidCadier @histgeo_edu_num

[FRANCE 24 Français @France24_fr]

💬 "Ce qui va être scruté pendant cette réunion, c'est l'attitude des #ÉtatsUnis."

Volodymyr #Zelensky est à l'Élysée pour un sommet de la coalition des volontaires. Analyse avec David Cadier, chercheur à l'IRSEM et enseignant à Sciences Po Paris

[FranceDefenceinUK @FRDefence_UK]

#TheDAweekendread
👉 insightful policy brief on the Coalition of the Willing for 🇺🇦 by @ElieTenenbaum and @DavidCadier published by 🇳🇴 @nupinytt. Underlying 🇨🇵 vision, ambitions and potential contribution within this coalition led with 🇬🇧
@Ifri_org
@IRSEM
@Armees_Gouv
@DGRIS_FR

[Roland Paris @rolandparis]

A longer draft (or a longer classified version) of the US national security strategy reportedly identified specific European countries – Austria, Hungary, Italy & Poland – for the US to “work more with…with the goal of pulling them away from” the EU. https://t.co/rn5oeLp7cu

[Elie Tenenbaum @ElieTenenbaum]

What does “able & willing” means for France? Happy to share this contribution with @DavidCadier as a part of @nupinytt project on European Coalition of the Willing for Ukraine 🇪🇺⚔️ 🇺🇦 thank you @YfReykers & John Karlsrud for leading the team! https://t.co/8B3kDD3UF0

[Public Sénat @publicsenat]

À 18h #SensPublic 👉 Ukraine : plan de paix ou capitulation ?

Invités :
@DavidCadier, Chercheur en sécurité européenne à l’IRSEM
Paul Gogo, Journaliste
@SylvieBermann, Ancienne ambassadrice de France à Pékin

[Balazs Jarabik @BalazsJarabik]

7/ The speech shows Zelensky understands the stakes — but also that he cannot decide. Washington pushes, Europe resists, Moscow waits, and Kyiv plays for time in the narrowest strategic corridor it has had since 2022.

[Gérard Araud @GerardAraud]

L’Ukraine ne peut pas gagner cette guerre. Il ne doit pas la perdre. Le cadre d’une négociation réaliste qui correspondrait à cet objectif est bien connu. Le plan de Trump le respecte. Reste à en négocier les termes. L’alternative, c’est la prolongation d’une guerre dévastatrice.

[David Cadier @DavidCadier]

Two interesting, successive statements by General Kellogg at #WSF2025:

The transatlantic relationship is both value-based and transactional

You Europeans do not realise how good you are. You're good on your own - like my kids on their bikes after the extra wheels were removed

[David Cadier @DavidCadier]

Very much looking forward to welcoming @KofmanMichael at @IRSEM, to his keynote on the strategic lessons of the Russia-Ukraine war, and to discussing implications for European security with @ElieTenenbaum @maudquessard

October 6, Ecole Militaire, Paris

https://t.co/1ORV1AeA73

[Etienne de Poncins @EdePoncins]

Moment historique. Ce soir, la Diète 🇵🇱 vote à la quasi unanimité la ratification du #TraitédeNancy signé le 9 mai dernier entre @EmmanuelMacron et @donaldtusk. Ce traité fondateur comporte une clause de défense renforcée. Ainsi qu'une journée 🇵🇱-🇫🇷 fixée au 20 avril. 🇫🇷🇵🇱🇪🇺

[Notes from Poland 🇵🇱 @notesfrompoland]

Poland has announced that it will close its border with Belarus from the end of Thursday this week due to Minsk hosting Russia's Zapad military exercises, which begin on Friday https://t.co/C0wtFxQEGB

[Alexander Graef @alxgraef]

"Exercises are also instruments of strategic communication, intended to shape perceptions, signal resolve, and strengthen deterrence. The real challenge is reading them correctly. This is where confidence- and security-building measures may help." #zapad
https://t.co/7EPeKbamin