![mikesimonsen's tweet photo. Are rising mortgage rates already deterring home buyers?
Strong economic and jobs growth news has pushed the 10yr yield higher and mortgage rates are jumping too. Rates are 40bp higher than a month ago and 100bp higher than a year ago.
The housing market has been showing signs of growth both in sales volume and in pricing, but these signals are slowing as home buyers wait for better deals.
As a result we can see inventory growing, and the improving pace of price cuts not improve as quickly as last year. These are subtle shifts but worth paying attention to.
That’s what we’re looking at in this week’s @AltosResearch market video.
[video link follows below]
Inventory
📍There are 497,000 single family homes on the market
📍That’s down 1.2% from last week
📍But 8.8% more homes on the market now than last year at this time
📍Inventory rises when interest rates rise - we should continue to see rising inventory levels this year.
📍It will take several years of higher mortgage rates to bring inventory levels back to the old normal levels.
New Listings
📍44,000 new single family listings this week, plus another 11,000 immediate sales.
📍That’s 7% more sellers than last year at this time. Growth is good, but it’s not a lot yet!
📍I’m hoping this number grows to 10-20% gains over 2023 to help the market regain some robustness this year.
New Pendings
📍56,000 new contracts for single family home sales this week.
📍That’s 2% greater than last year. Just tiny growth, unfortunately.
📍The year-over-year growth rate in pending home sales was much bigger in December than we saw in January. This sure seems to be the impact of rising rates all this month.
Home Prices
📍Median price of single family homes in the US is just under $425,000
📍That continues to be up a few percent over 2023.
📍The price of the newly listed cohort is at $399,000.
Unchanged from last week and 5% gains over 2023.
📍Prices continue to show modest gains in the cards for 2024
Price Reductions
📍30.6% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut.
📍That’s falling with the season’s fresh inventory and right in the “normal range”
📍We can see a slightly shallower slope of the 2024 curve than we saw in 2023. Last year rates were falling all January. This year they rose all month.
📍The more rates rise, the fewer offers get made and relatively more sellers take a price cut.
📍Keep your eyes here if rates continue to climb and we see 7.2% or 7.5%](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFmSI4Sa4AAsP9I.jpg)
![mikesimonsen's tweet photo. Are rising mortgage rates already deterring home buyers?
Strong economic and jobs growth news has pushed the 10yr yield higher and mortgage rates are jumping too. Rates are 40bp higher than a month ago and 100bp higher than a year ago.
The housing market has been showing signs of growth both in sales volume and in pricing, but these signals are slowing as home buyers wait for better deals.
As a result we can see inventory growing, and the improving pace of price cuts not improve as quickly as last year. These are subtle shifts but worth paying attention to.
That’s what we’re looking at in this week’s @AltosResearch market video.
[video link follows below]
Inventory
📍There are 497,000 single family homes on the market
📍That’s down 1.2% from last week
📍But 8.8% more homes on the market now than last year at this time
📍Inventory rises when interest rates rise - we should continue to see rising inventory levels this year.
📍It will take several years of higher mortgage rates to bring inventory levels back to the old normal levels.
New Listings
📍44,000 new single family listings this week, plus another 11,000 immediate sales.
📍That’s 7% more sellers than last year at this time. Growth is good, but it’s not a lot yet!
📍I’m hoping this number grows to 10-20% gains over 2023 to help the market regain some robustness this year.
New Pendings
📍56,000 new contracts for single family home sales this week.
📍That’s 2% greater than last year. Just tiny growth, unfortunately.
📍The year-over-year growth rate in pending home sales was much bigger in December than we saw in January. This sure seems to be the impact of rising rates all this month.
Home Prices
📍Median price of single family homes in the US is just under $425,000
📍That continues to be up a few percent over 2023.
📍The price of the newly listed cohort is at $399,000.
Unchanged from last week and 5% gains over 2023.
📍Prices continue to show modest gains in the cards for 2024
Price Reductions
📍30.6% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut.
📍That’s falling with the season’s fresh inventory and right in the “normal range”
📍We can see a slightly shallower slope of the 2024 curve than we saw in 2023. Last year rates were falling all January. This year they rose all month.
📍The more rates rise, the fewer offers get made and relatively more sellers take a price cut.
📍Keep your eyes here if rates continue to climb and we see 7.2% or 7.5%](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFmSI4QbAAA0Cc3.jpg)
![mikesimonsen's tweet photo. Are rising mortgage rates already deterring home buyers?
Strong economic and jobs growth news has pushed the 10yr yield higher and mortgage rates are jumping too. Rates are 40bp higher than a month ago and 100bp higher than a year ago.
The housing market has been showing signs of growth both in sales volume and in pricing, but these signals are slowing as home buyers wait for better deals.
As a result we can see inventory growing, and the improving pace of price cuts not improve as quickly as last year. These are subtle shifts but worth paying attention to.
That’s what we’re looking at in this week’s @AltosResearch market video.
[video link follows below]
Inventory
📍There are 497,000 single family homes on the market
📍That’s down 1.2% from last week
📍But 8.8% more homes on the market now than last year at this time
📍Inventory rises when interest rates rise - we should continue to see rising inventory levels this year.
📍It will take several years of higher mortgage rates to bring inventory levels back to the old normal levels.
New Listings
📍44,000 new single family listings this week, plus another 11,000 immediate sales.
📍That’s 7% more sellers than last year at this time. Growth is good, but it’s not a lot yet!
📍I’m hoping this number grows to 10-20% gains over 2023 to help the market regain some robustness this year.
New Pendings
📍56,000 new contracts for single family home sales this week.
📍That’s 2% greater than last year. Just tiny growth, unfortunately.
📍The year-over-year growth rate in pending home sales was much bigger in December than we saw in January. This sure seems to be the impact of rising rates all this month.
Home Prices
📍Median price of single family homes in the US is just under $425,000
📍That continues to be up a few percent over 2023.
📍The price of the newly listed cohort is at $399,000.
Unchanged from last week and 5% gains over 2023.
📍Prices continue to show modest gains in the cards for 2024
Price Reductions
📍30.6% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut.
📍That’s falling with the season’s fresh inventory and right in the “normal range”
📍We can see a slightly shallower slope of the 2024 curve than we saw in 2023. Last year rates were falling all January. This year they rose all month.
📍The more rates rise, the fewer offers get made and relatively more sellers take a price cut.
📍Keep your eyes here if rates continue to climb and we see 7.2% or 7.5%](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFmSI4PboAA43s0.jpg)
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@JaredSandler Neither. Or a light sell
Rangers TV/radio broadcaster Jared Sandler and his wife, Emily, have lost 10 potential pregnancies in a five-year span.
They’ve navigated it through the people in their lives, each other, and baseball.
“Emily and baseball saved me.”
https://t.co/aK3qRSGIv7
"...and the LEGEND grows!"
Adolis defected from Cuba, was twice DFA'd, traded for cash, and became a...
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Postseason record holder
Fan favorite with a smile larger than his biceps
What a success story.
Thanks, El Bombi!
Repost today for a chance to win this #LuckHappens VIP Experience on August 4 from @TexasLottery!
Must be 18 or older to enter.
Existing home closings rose by 0.8% from April to May, exceeding forecasts of a 1% decline. Furthermore, housing inventory grew by 6.2% compared to April and by 20.3% compared to the same period last year. #homesellers #homesales #realestate... https://t.co/WXJpA9oC8d
@Barrington_14 So cool. Congrats and prayers forward !
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@EvilMopacATX Nothing from Dallas to Shreveport on way to casino
BREAKING: US Subprime auto loan delinquency rates are now set to cross above 4% and stand at 2008 levels.
The 60-day delinquency rate for subprime auto loans is now ~3.9%, doubling in just 3 years.
Since 2021, subprime and prime auto loan delinquencies have moved in a straight-line higher.
The increase accelerated once the Fed began raising rates in March 2022.
Meanwhile, auto insurance rates have spiked by 22% over the last year, the biggest jump in over 50 years.
Consumer bankruptcies are set to skyrocket.
BREAKING: US mortgage demand in March fell to its lowest since 1995, according to Reventure.
Mortgage demand is now 43% below its recent peak and ~16% below the post-2008 lows.
Meanwhile, the average payment on a new mortgage is now nearly $2,800/month.
This means that the average American household would spend ~45% of their PRE-TAX income on a new mortgage payment.
On a post-tax basis, it's over 60% and this doesn't even include taxes, insurance, and maintenance.
Who's still buying homes?
I’ve seen enough. The Texas Rangers are going back-to-back.
#StraightUpTX
Are rising mortgage rates already deterring home buyers?
Strong economic and jobs growth news has pushed the 10yr yield higher and mortgage rates are jumping too. Rates are 40bp higher than a month ago and 100bp higher than a year ago.
The housing market has been showing signs of growth both in sales volume and in pricing, but these signals are slowing as home buyers wait for better deals.
As a result we can see inventory growing, and the improving pace of price cuts not improve as quickly as last year. These are subtle shifts but worth paying attention to.
That’s what we’re looking at in this week’s @AltosResearch market video.
[video link follows below]
Inventory
📍There are 497,000 single family homes on the market
📍That’s down 1.2% from last week
📍But 8.8% more homes on the market now than last year at this time
📍Inventory rises when interest rates rise - we should continue to see rising inventory levels this year.
📍It will take several years of higher mortgage rates to bring inventory levels back to the old normal levels.
New Listings
📍44,000 new single family listings this week, plus another 11,000 immediate sales.
📍That’s 7% more sellers than last year at this time. Growth is good, but it’s not a lot yet!
📍I’m hoping this number grows to 10-20% gains over 2023 to help the market regain some robustness this year.
New Pendings
📍56,000 new contracts for single family home sales this week.
📍That’s 2% greater than last year. Just tiny growth, unfortunately.
📍The year-over-year growth rate in pending home sales was much bigger in December than we saw in January. This sure seems to be the impact of rising rates all this month.
Home Prices
📍Median price of single family homes in the US is just under $425,000
📍That continues to be up a few percent over 2023.
📍The price of the newly listed cohort is at $399,000.
Unchanged from last week and 5% gains over 2023.
📍Prices continue to show modest gains in the cards for 2024
Price Reductions
📍30.6% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut.
📍That’s falling with the season’s fresh inventory and right in the “normal range”
📍We can see a slightly shallower slope of the 2024 curve than we saw in 2023. Last year rates were falling all January. This year they rose all month.
📍The more rates rise, the fewer offers get made and relatively more sellers take a price cut.
📍Keep your eyes here if rates continue to climb and we see 7.2% or 7.5%
![mikesimonsen's tweet photo. Are rising mortgage rates already deterring home buyers?
Strong economic and jobs growth news has pushed the 10yr yield higher and mortgage rates are jumping too. Rates are 40bp higher than a month ago and 100bp higher than a year ago.
The housing market has been showing signs of growth both in sales volume and in pricing, but these signals are slowing as home buyers wait for better deals.
As a result we can see inventory growing, and the improving pace of price cuts not improve as quickly as last year. These are subtle shifts but worth paying attention to.
That’s what we’re looking at in this week’s @AltosResearch market video.
[video link follows below]
Inventory
📍There are 497,000 single family homes on the market
📍That’s down 1.2% from last week
📍But 8.8% more homes on the market now than last year at this time
📍Inventory rises when interest rates rise - we should continue to see rising inventory levels this year.
📍It will take several years of higher mortgage rates to bring inventory levels back to the old normal levels.
New Listings
📍44,000 new single family listings this week, plus another 11,000 immediate sales.
📍That’s 7% more sellers than last year at this time. Growth is good, but it’s not a lot yet!
📍I’m hoping this number grows to 10-20% gains over 2023 to help the market regain some robustness this year.
New Pendings
📍56,000 new contracts for single family home sales this week.
📍That’s 2% greater than last year. Just tiny growth, unfortunately.
📍The year-over-year growth rate in pending home sales was much bigger in December than we saw in January. This sure seems to be the impact of rising rates all this month.
Home Prices
📍Median price of single family homes in the US is just under $425,000
📍That continues to be up a few percent over 2023.
📍The price of the newly listed cohort is at $399,000.
Unchanged from last week and 5% gains over 2023.
📍Prices continue to show modest gains in the cards for 2024
Price Reductions
📍30.6% of the homes on the market have taken a price cut.
📍That’s falling with the season’s fresh inventory and right in the “normal range”
📍We can see a slightly shallower slope of the 2024 curve than we saw in 2023. Last year rates were falling all January. This year they rose all month.
📍The more rates rise, the fewer offers get made and relatively more sellers take a price cut.
📍Keep your eyes here if rates continue to climb and we see 7.2% or 7.5%](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GFmSI4VaMAALsYo.jpg)
All the feels
CHILLS. Every. Single. Time.
Barry Habib - Steve Blumenthal: Direction of Interest Rates, Mortgage Ra... https://t.co/qKGIjXR6A3 via @YouTube
@Mike_kim714 As someone who snapped his 5 wood this past weekend, I could use some used clubs
Great way to start your morning courtesy of the Rangers!
Looks like Evan Carter has a surprise waiting for him when he returns home.
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