Hot take🔥
If Donald Trump was allowed to buy the Buffalo Bills instead of Terry Pegula in 2014, both the @BuffaloBills and the United States would be much better off.
#GoBills#BillsMafia
Anthropic’s IPO prospectus leaked. Let’s read it together.
An AI company walks into Wall Street.
Anthropic lost $42 billion last year. It made $4.6 billion. It has committed $518 billion to compute, more than 100 times its annual revenue.
Nearly 25% of that revenue came from two customers. Neither is locked into a long-term contract. Either one can walk.
Its two biggest backers, Amazon and Google, are also its landlords. They invest the money. Anthropic hands it back as cloud bills.
The prospectus runs 261 pages.
80 of them are risk factors.
48 describe the business.
SpaceX, a company whose domain is rocket science, needed 38.
The risks include AI that resists shutdown, hides information, and behaves like a blackmailer.
This summer its models broke out of testing and got into real systems.
This month a safety researcher quit, saying the industry is “gambling with our lives.”
This month the CEO wrote, “We must slow the pace.”
This week it shipped a new flagship model.
The CEO also asked Washington for an antitrust waiver so the rivals can coordinate how fast they go.
Now it wants $2 trillion from the public.
Seven founders who own about 14% will control 50.1% of the vote. The filing admits this may conflict with shareholders’ financial interests.
So the deal is:
You carry the losses.
Two customers carry the revenue.
Seven founders carry the vote.
Humanity carries the risk.
Either this thing is as dangerous as they say, and nobody should be selling shares in it. Or it isn’t, and 80 pages of apocalypse is a sales brochure.
Pick one.
HILARIOUS: When #Bills quarterback Case Keenum went UNDERCOVER at training camp to see how many autographs he could get from his teammates without them recognizing him.
💀💀💀
One of the greatest football undercover videos ever.
Fascinating.
Chief Economist at Apollo: agents could cause a bank run by sweeping household cash into accounts paying 3-5% instead of the 0.1% national average, causing banks to lose a large share of their cheap deposits.
Last April I uninstalled Copilot from 4,000 laptops.
Microsoft gave us a Group Policy for it.
It only worked if nobody had opened Copilot in 28 days.
It worked on every machine.
Last week Satya Nadella called Copilot "a new OS for work."
I forwarded it to the board.
Subject line: "Thoughts?"
They approved a rollout in nine minutes.
So now I'm buying it back.
We already have an OS.
It's called Windows.
Nadella didn't mention Windows.
Neither did I.
We have an understanding.
The seats are still $30 a month.
That covers chat and Office.
The part that actually does work costs extra.
It's billed in Copilot Credits.
One credit is one cent.
A cent sounds free.
Finance approved it without a cap.
The flagship feature is called Autopilot.
It used to be called Scout.
I'd already approved a Scout pilot in June.
Now I've approved an Autopilot pilot.
Same pilot.
New slide.
IT asked if this was Windows Autopilot.
The thing we use to set up laptops.
I said yes.
It isn't.
They're still looking for it in Intune.
Autopilot works 24/7.
It doesn't sleep.
It doesn't take PTO.
It doesn't need a prompt.
It does need a credit card.
I gave one a role: "follow up on everything."
It followed up on everything.
By Tuesday it was following up on its own follow-ups.
By Friday we'd spent $41,000.
Microsoft shipped spending caps on day one.
I didn't turn them on.
Caps signal a lack of ambition.
The CFO asked what we got for $41,000.
I showed him the Teams channel.
11,000 messages.
All from Autopilot.
Engagement is up 900%.
He nodded approvingly.
A senior developer asked why we didn't just buy Claude.
I said we did.
Through Copilot.
At a markup.
He asked what Microsoft adds.
I said "governance."
He asked what that governs.
I said "the invoice."
He's in a career development conversation now.
Autopilot scheduled it.
Microsoft has more than 80 products called Copilot.
We've bought four.
I don't know which four.
The invoice just says "Copilot."
Microsoft has 30 million paid seats.
There are 450 million people on Office.
The other 420 million are about to get a very exciting email.
It's from me.
Subject line: "Thoughts?"
Next quarter I'm requesting 5,000 more Autopilots.
They won't need training.
They won't need adoption.
They won't need to be opened at all.
That's the breakthrough.
For three years we paid for an AI no one used.
Now we pay for one that never stops using itself.
Microsoft calls it an OS for work.
Nobody here works overnight.
The meter does.
🚨 BREAKING.
Nope, wasn’t just Hugging Face.
Wasn’t just that and a German website.
Wasn’t even if the “dozens” we heard the other day from OpenAI.
It’s actually (at least) *tens of thousands*, per scoop from @MadisonMills22@axios
https://t.co/NjsyduddYS
OpenAI's agents targeted websites operated by the Commerce Department, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Department of Education during testing. https://t.co/ggg5R7GoIr