Gary Marcus

OG GenAI Skeptic; spoke at US Senate. Warned about hallucinations in 2001. Advocating world models & neurosymbolic AI ever since. Author, Marcus on AI & 6 books

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

Three thoughts on what really matters:

1. Fuck cancer
2. Friends are irreplaceable
3. The new "Marcus test" for AI is when AI makes a significant dent on cancer

May that happen sooner, much sooner, rather than later.

In memory of my childhood friend Paul.

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

what i have been saying for years

maybe now people will listen?

[Richard Sutton @RichardSSutton]

Brute force computation is not enough for intelligence. Clever new methods are needed. The science of AI is far from finished. IMHO

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

So since everyone is paying attention now, here is the latest version

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

@TheRealBirnbaum you are spreading misinformation about me

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

@TheRealBirnbaum you have completely misrepresented my actual position.

have you actually read any of my articles?

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

Breaking: Green line represents a widespread fantasy, and roughly the rocket that Anthropic would have needed to make it as a sustainable business.

The dark bars on the right show that they already fell off the pace — which is why they probably won’t make it.

[TickerTrends 🔬 @tickerplus]

Anthropic’s October ARR topped $80B, per WSJ, consistent with TickerTrends tracking

We tracked $82.33B as of Oct. 30, up 7.2% from our Sept. 24 weekly release

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

Will be interesting to see how Jensen winds up being viewed in history.

[Art Keller @ArtKeller]

@GaryMarcus there is the whole circular financing thing that NVIDIA's the tentpole of. So when he wasn't banging a Chinese honeypot, he was inflating the biggest bubble in history that may well torpedo the US economy if it bursts abruptly. Other than those two things, he's v. prudent! 🤦‍♂️

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

easy: at that point many of them fail

[Peter Berezin @PeterBerezinBCA]

Local AI models, which are run on a laptop or smartphone, are becoming increasingly capable. Future phones will be able to perform most of the inference that data centers currently do. What will happen to the trillions of dollars spent on data centers then?

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

@NoahProoval

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

Could Jensen’s judgement in this have been any worse?

[Chris McGuire @ChrisRMcGuire]

The story keeps getting crazier. To recap everything that has been reported so far:

- The US intelligence community discovered that Jensen Huang, the CEO of the largest company in the world, was sleeping with Alice Huang, a Chinese spy and an executive at Megaspeed. (FT)
- Multiple independent investigations have concluded that Megaspeed is likely a Chinese cutout, which helps Chinese companies access AI chips or circumvent export controls. (NYT and Bloomberg)
- The US intelligence community also concluded that Alice Huang’s goal was to convince Jensen to lobby the U.S. government to loosen export controls on advanced AI chips. (NYT)
- The intelligence community relayed this information to “a small group of top US government officials” earlier this year. (FT)
- Over the last year, Jensen Huang has repeatedly lobbied the U.S. government to loosen export controls on advanced chips. @BISgov has done so, not only by permitting the export of H200 chips to China, but also not enforcing export controls that would have required a license for exports of the most advanced Blackwell chips to Megaspeed and Southeast Asia.
- Although @CommerceGov leadership was presumably briefed on this information by the U.S. intelligence community, @BISgov has taken no actions to tighten controls on Megaspeed or Southeast Asia.
- Megaspeed remains a preferred cloud partner of Nvidia, and continues to receive Nvidia Blackwell chips despite employing a Chinese spy who reportedly is romantically engaged with the CEO of Nvidia.
- Tens of billions of dollars worth of AI chips have been exported to Southeast Asia this year alone, and Malaysia and Singapore are now two of the four largest importers of AI chips in the world.

What is going on here??? We need answers. The question of who gets the most advanced AI chips in the world is literally the defining strategic question of our time. And not only does it seem like the MSS may be directly influencing the debate on export controls in the United States, but also @CommerceGov is refusing to listen to the warnings of the IC on this issue. What is a POSSIBLE good explanation for why Megaspeed is still receiving chips? Why is there not a license requirement for AI chip shipments to all of Southeast Asia? This is beyond strange at this point.

The fallout from this story will be massive. Obviously, the motivations underpinning Nvidia’s policy views opposing export controls must now all be questioned. But also, how did @BISgov sit on this information and has still taken no actions? We need answers.

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

It’s all downhill from here!

[Harry Tandy @HarryTandy]

@GaryMarcus front row next to the Pope is a tough act to follow

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

Amazing! That’s me up front, just to the right of the Pope, in Italy’s leading newspaper.

https://t.co/0VjObuAn3S

(There’s also interview me, posted in a separate link)

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

Interview with me in Corriere Della Sera

https://t.co/GakRVQnO9r

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

maybe they won’t?

[Conor Sen @conorsen]

How does Anthropic raise $80-100bn two weeks after OpenAI could only raise $11bn of a $30bn target?

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

@BrianRoemmele so sorry to hear the news!

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

💯

[Peter Dove @ElectronDev]

@GaryMarcus Seeing the hype collapse is a reminder markets love narratives, not fundamentals

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

Figures that a man who trusted Sam Altman would fall for a Chinese spy.

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

Only 1 in 3 people in this unscientific poll still think Anthropic can get the IPO done at > $1T.

A month ago many people were imagining $2T.

[Gary Marcus @GaryMarcus]

anthropic

[Roger @rdd147]

Anthropic Ammended S-1

“We expect our costs will increase over time and our losses will continue”

“We do not expect our revenue will continue to grow at comparable rates”

This company has $110 billion in annual commitments that they admit they need to pay, but will need to grow into.

The company and business is nothing more than speculation.

[Yafah Edelman @YafahEdelman]

Worthwhile to note that there are very important metrics that aren't accelerating.