A trader thinks that the prices of eggs are going to increase, and so he contacts his broker and asks him to buy 1,000,000 egg futures at $1.70
Sure enough, a week later, the price of egg futures is $2.50, and the trader, happy to ride his winners, places an order for 3,000,000 more egg futures
Next month, at $4.30 a piece, he pats himself on the back and restructures his liquid investments to buy another 10,000,000 egg futures
At the end of the quarter, egg futures are trading at $7, and the trader finally calls up his broker and tells him to sell them all
The broker replies: “To who? You’re the egg man!”
Gets more interesting than this -- there is possibly/probably a leak somewhere. The price started inching higher 12 hours BEFORE the strike.
There are signs that a Polymarket trader, with insider knowledge, is buying tons of shares ahead of Israeli strikes. The person (or group) creates a new account each time. Chatter started among traders yesterday morning about a strike given the new account buying again.
Last night's win was $134,000. The account was created ~24 hours before the attack, started buying massively ~12 hours before the attack. Only traded 1 market. After the win, withdrew the money, and Keyser Soze'd right out of there.
I almost never think its an insider. But this has now happened 3x in a row for Israeli strikes -- when Israel struck Iran in October 2024, when Israel struck the Houthis a month or two ago, and again for yesterday's strike. There's an intel leak somewhere.
1 BTC in china currently sells for around $543,843.37 CNY via P2P market
so that's a decent premium above western markets
~ $75K per BTC
as liquidity or supply gets thinner that spread likely widens a lot (higher premiums paid for BTC)