David Bickel 🥃 statistical evidence 🍷

molecular evolution models;
evidence;
calibrated null hypothesis significance testing;
empirical Bayes;
fiducial;
model checking;
unquantified uncertainty

[David Bickel 🥃 statistical evidence 🍷 @DavidRBickel]

Statistics publications, preprints, software, and reviews https://t.co/3LfTBionWv #statistics #evidence #articles #publications #preprints #reviews #software #genomics #FDR #LFDR #NHST

[David Bickel 🥃 statistical evidence 🍷 @DavidRBickel]

For Exercise 10 at the end of chapter 5 of https://t.co/C1ElwUm9hd :

Download the ESM by following https://t.co/ZIuhsLUpn7 & then scroll down to the link under the heading "Electronic Supplementary Materials".

#supplements #GDAFDREBM

[David Bickel 🥃 statistical evidence 🍷 @DavidRBickel]

Bickel, D. R. (2025). The marginal e-value: Testing by betting given a prior probability of the null hypothesis. Zenodo. https://t.co/CIEYbHXhBa

Slides presented: https://t.co/t3bR1olZQj

Christian Robert's remarks on the talk & summary of the workshop: https://t.co/uAxLsgkzdp

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Bickel, D. R. (2025). Bayesian model checking by betting: A game-theoretic alternative to Bayesian p-values and classical Bayes factors. The American Statistician. https://t.co/gNFNxbE4Ga

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Fact-finding by betting: Resolution of the Blue Bus, Gatecrasher, and Prison Riot paradoxes of proof without neglecting base rates https://t.co/RwCDkWiTvn

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D. R. Bickel, "Credible sets that coherently test point null hypotheses of nonzero prior probability, with applications to calibrated p-values and standard confidence intervals," working paper, DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1528846, https://t.co/oy6YECPkZD

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Bickel, D. R. (2024). An evidential semantics for possibility theory with generalizations. Zenodo. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.14583786
https://t.co/Hx0vXNWrLC

[David Bickel 🥃 statistical evidence 🍷 @DavidRBickel]

“The propagation and reduction of uncertainty left unquantified by confidence intervals, p-values, neural network predictions, posterior distributions, and other statistical results,” J. Ver., Val. & Uncertainty Quantification 9, 031002 (2024) https://t.co/cql6iwUh6B

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D. R. Bickel, “Bayesian and frequentist inference derived from the maximum entropy principle with applications to propagating uncertainty about statistical methods,” Statistical Papers 65, 5389-5407 (2024) https://t.co/i1d8JejJ2I

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David R. Bickel’s contribution to the Discussion of ‘Safe Testing’ by Grünwald, De Heide and Koolen https://t.co/nTy3jckXvr

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Errata: Interval estimation, point estimation, and null hypothesis significance testing calibrated by an estimated posterior probability of the null hypothesis Bickel (2023) https://t.co/2vyKkbtVgx

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Coherent testing and safe testing https://t.co/Av692aE7Uy

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David R. Bickel's contribution to the Discussion of "Safe testing" by Peter Grünwald, Rianne de Heide and Wouter Koolen https://t.co/Ye3j6NWyZH

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Bayesian model checking by betting: A game-theoretic alternative to Bayesian p-values and classical Bayes factors https://t.co/E6YDypE7MP

[David Bickel 🥃 statistical evidence 🍷 @DavidRBickel]

A small-sample Bayesian information criterion that does not overstate the evidence, with an application to calibrating p-values from likelihood-ratio tests
https://t.co/xKJGhMvoQc

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The p-value interpreted as the posterior probability of explaining the data: Applications to multiple testing and to restricted parameter spaces - Sankhya A

full-text access to a view-only version:
https://t.co/oDqvx0Ijap

paywall HTML & PDF versions:
https://t.co/fXkBV2HFTQ

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Disjunctive multiple testing: Unified adjustments of p-values, Bayes factors, false discovery rates, false sign rates, etc. https://t.co/y11id54J9k

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Fiducialize statistical significance: transforming p-values into conservative posterior probabilities and Bayes factors https://t.co/OvmZdkdRgi

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Statistical evidence and surprise unified under possibility theory https://t.co/Fqh4GX9WGT

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Errata: Interval estimation, point estimation, and null hypothesis significance testing calibrated by an estimated posterior probability of the null hypothesis Bickel (2023) https://t.co/rtRvXVEBz2

[David Bickel 🥃 statistical evidence 🍷 @DavidRBickel]

(PDF) MR3086853 Kleinberg, Samantha (1-STIT-NDM) Causality, probability, and time https://t.co/mOI6yHETY3

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