In 65 years of 10y Treasury Rate history, we have had a higher stochastics reading in just 3 months (0.4% of all observations):
- June 1978 (start of major breakout in rates, led to 3 month consolidation and 40bps pullback in rate)
- September 1981 (THE peak in the 10y rate)
- May 1984 (peak of the first rate bear market rally)
Everyone that follows me is more than aware of how vocal I’ve been about how high the long end likely goes (9%+ by end of the decade).
I think we’re more looking at a June ‘78 observation as opposed to September 1981. In other words, some consolidation/back and fill of rates before the real breakout happens in 2027.
The US has announced a massive new $2.68 billion sale of air defense equipment to Ukraine.
The package includes a number of upgrades, anti-drone systems, broad maintenance support, and “S-300 Clone missiles.”
@stonkmane69 You seem bearish on the broader semi’s index, but bullish on individual names. Do you think there will be a divergence or are you bullish on the entire sector now?