@elonmusk companies at their best don’t win the game; they change the rules through scale.
He makes all-in bets not by making rational short-term business decisions, but by starting with the desired end state and working backwards.
#ElonMusk#MentalModels
The more the economy runs through the market, the more a market decline stops being a market event and becomes an economic one. So the market gets backstopped. Which makes it more central. Which makes the next decline scarier. And around it goes.
Every old house has that one wall the inspector tells you not to touch, because the whole place is sitting on it. That's what the stock market became. So the real question isn't whether stocks are cheap or expensive. It's that we made it so important it can't be allowed to break.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: “Four years ago, five years ago, Nvidia was spending about $10, $15 billion dollars a year in Taiwan. Now we’re spending $100, going to $150 billion dollars in Taiwan each year.”
$NVDA $TSM $AMD
This is absolutely incredible.
Investors now perceive Nvidia to be as creditworthy as the US government.
Nvidia's $NVDA, 5-year credit default swap (CDS) is trading at ~38 basis points, slightly below the US sovereign CDS, at 40 basis points.
In other words, markets consider the world's largest company to be less likely to default on its obligations than the US federal government.
This comes as in FY2026, Nvidia carried only ~$8.5 billion in total debt against ~$10.6 billion in cash and generated nearly $100 billion in free cash flow, giving it one of the strongest balance sheets of any company in the world.
Even if Nvidia's earnings dropped -90%, it would still rank among the 100 most profitable companies in the world.
Markets are treating Nvidia as one of the safest companies on the planet.
. When it comes to #AI, distribution and transaction costs are still free — the two preconditions for Aggregators — which means that the winners should be those with the most compelling products.
‼️The current frenzy in US semiconductors is unlike anything seen in the market's history:
Semiconductor & Tech Hardware now reflects 29% of the S&P 500's market cap, AN ALL-TIME HIGH.
This share has TRIPLED since the 2020 market recovery.
This now surpasses the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak by 5 percentage points.
The Semiconductor sector, $SOX, is now trading 67% above its 200-day moving average, the largest margin since the Dot Com Bubble Burst and the 2nd-largest reading EVER.
This is getting seriously dangerous.
Great chart: @SoFi
📊 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝘆 📊
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic's projected IPO valuations total ~$3.75T, more than all 2,600 dot-com IPOs combined. Three companies. One year. Half of all IPO wealth created in the 48 years prior to the dot-com era.
@pkedrosky
https://t.co/0KaKgg4eql