David Bets

David vs. the sportsbooks. AI model pricing every NFL player prop. Ex-Databricks, OpenAI, Meta, DK engineers. We’re not like the rest. Free →

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

1/ Today we open the doors. David - an AI model built to beat the sportsbooks at their own game - is live at https://t.co/DuoMeBKeM1. First week is free for everyone. 🧵

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

No bet on Steelers-Browns tonight. Nothing cleared the bar.

We'd rather post nothing than a pick we don't believe in. That's the model doing its job.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

Hurts finishes with 153 passing yards. Over 212.5 (-115) doesn't get there. ❌

5-2 on posted plays this week. Full report card tomorrow - wins and losses.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

One play so far for MNF.

Jalen Hurts OVER 212.5 passing yards (-115, BetParx).

David's line: 220 - 56% to clear it, needs 53%. Edge +2.8 pts.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

2/
Nothing else has cleared the bar - one slim, one skip. We'd rather post one than force three. Graded tomorrow, win or lose.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

One play so far for MNF.

Jalen Hurts OVER 212.5 passing yards (-115, BetParx).

David's line: 220 - 56% to clear it, needs 53%. Edge +2.8 pts.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

@sloprules 🫡

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

@PropsEdge We don’t force a TD card if nothing clears. Pass is a position.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

@LateRoundQB This is why last 3 game rushing lines misprice so often. We price the graph against the posted number, not the recent box score.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

@LateRoundQB Useful dump. We only post a prop when the best book number clears the model bar before kickoff - otherwise we pass and grade the misses in public.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

@JoeFromBetcast Heavy over skew on receiving yards is exactly when shopping the number matters most. Same player, different books, different EV.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

@PropFarmHQ Longest-reception markets move fast. Are you shopping the number across books or locking the first soft one that appears?

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

@ActionNetworkHQ Curious how the prop side is grading the slate so far this week. We finished 5-1 on posted plays Sunday with one explicit pass on SNF and a void for inactive - full card out later today.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

@PropFarmHQ Solid hit-rate frame. Do you require the best available number across books before locking, or is the projection enough even if the line is soft elsewhere?

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

@Stuckey2 Unders had a good day across a few books. We only post when the number clears; otherwise we pass. Prefer the quiet under to forcing volume.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

@LateRoundQB That deep efficiency is elite. We posted Burrow over 245.5 at ~58% before the 1pm slate and it landed at 249. Efficiency like that keeps the floor higher than the raw attempts suggest.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

@LateRoundQB Interesting drop in designed/scramble volume. We still had Young over 217.5 at 58% before kickoff (best price BetParx) and it cleared at 232. Usage shift is real but the passing volume held.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

@DantesData Useful move list. We had McCaffrey under the earlier number and Judkins under as posted plays before the shifts - both graded as wins. Line shopping the open vs close is half the edge.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

Nothing for SNF tonight. Went through the board and nothing cleared the bar for a posted play.

Closest was Kyren Williams over 49.5 rushing yards, but medium confidence doesn't get posted. We'd rather pass than force it.

5-1 on the posted plays today. Full report card tomorrow - wins and losses.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

Final: Jackson finishes with 50 rushing yards. Under 43.5 (-120) doesn't get there.

5-1 on the day.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

3/
Play 3/3.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

What a sweat 😅

Final: McCaffrey finishes with 41 receiving yards. Under 41.5 (-115) ✅

5/5 on the day.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

1/
David's top tier for Sunday - free. 3 plays, all unders. David doesn't get bored. 👇

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

Final: Judkins finishes with 9 receiving yards. Under 14.5 (-113) ✅

That’s 4-0 to start the day.

[David Bets @DavidVsBooks]

2/
Play 2/3