"The S&P 500 PE ratio is sitting at 24 and we are somehow in a "market bottom". This Andrew Adams fellow is either the dumbest "market strategist" who ever lived or has become so comfortable with lying it's all he knows how to do anymore."
Jergon, BusinessInsider comment 5/26/16
Since all anyone seems to talk about is "AI" these days, I rolled out a new "AI Beneficiaries" portfolio yesterday. It invests in 6 core AI-centric ETFs to provide general exposure, plus 20 individual stocks that are either driving or stand to benefit from the AI revolution. #AI
Popping in with things getting historic:
$SOX = highest weekly RSI since 2000 & hitting upper channel; $SPX nearing 150% above 200-MONTH moving average for only the 4th time in modern history (two of those cases it ended up going even higher while the other was the 1987 Crash).
I never post on here so no clue if anyone still cares, but I am doing what everyone else is doing and launching a Substack where I will feature individual trade signals.
https://t.co/0bpZ1YrlWu
I also continue to post frequent market commentary at https://t.co/5jdJGlQkse.
Basically the same thing I wrote a month ago applies today -- there are signs the market has softened lately with fewer stocks participating and momentum slowing, yet until we get a break of ~6200 support in $SPX, status quo (uptrend) remains in effect.
There has been very little to say about the stock market over the past couple of months. Reminiscent of late 2016 to early 2018 when we went ~15 months with downside in $SPX limited to 2-3%. There are signs now that momentum is waning and fewer stocks are participating but it...
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remain above ~5500 now and at worst I see no reason at all to fall much below the gap around 5300. Makes sense to buy pullbacks above there but major danger if that latter region is violated since it "should not" happen based on history.
There has been no shortage of bullish technical "thrusts" and historical precedents recently suggesting we're only going up from here. I have seen too many to possibly highlight with a character limit. In that case, it is pretty simple then: if true, dips in SPX should ideally...
Area around 5400 is key. There just isn't much obvious support below there until down near 5150. Could get very messy in that "support vacuum" and then there's another one under there until down around 4900-4950. $SPX $SPY
$SPX rolled back over right from the window I outlined in reports. Hanging on by a thread above 5600 but a definitive break below there increases downside risk, with low 5000s a possible target next. Break back above weekly high and upper end of that box comes back into play.$SPY
2022 echoes continue to pile up. Today the $SPX was more than 3sd below its 50DMA for the first time since early 2022. That soon led to about a 9% bounce but it did roll back over. History seems to suggest bounce soon. If not, no obvious support until ~5400.
It's a "George Costanza" market recently. Bad action has been "good" and good action has been "bad. Doing the opposite of what TA suggests has worked. However, that's a dangerous strategy in the long run. Eventually selling breakouts and buying breakdowns will punish faders.