DBacks Factoids

Facts and Warm Takes about America's Team

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

My #30, Cristian Mena. He should be way higher - when he went down with a shoulder injury in June '25, he was off to a great start. (The umps wouldn't call the game, forcing him to pitch, probably in an altered form, which may have contributed to his injury).

At any rate, he was a high K prospect who needed to add velo. He did, and was doing great when he debuted in the bigs. But his shoulder injury derailed his '25 season AND '26 when it returned, eventually leading to surgery. If he can return to health, he should be a rotation mainstay.

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

My #31 is Dylan Ray. Fangraphs called him velocity-dependent. Not a coincidence that he had a great deal of success late in the year in the bullpen in shorter stints when his velo was up to 96.8.

Already of the 40-man roster, he’s already on the shortlist for a major league spot when an arm is needed.

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

@HebHammer94 Now do it for last year. And 2024. And …

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

My #32 Spencer Giesting. Drafted in the 11th round, but as is standard for 11th rounders, paid more, like a 5th rounder in this case.

Was a crafty lefty with 5 pitches, some good spin rates, but gained velo this year after moving to the bullpen and kept getting better all year. Has to be added to the 40-man roster, so he’ll be in the big leagues sooner than later.

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

@KyleAGlaser I reposted something from Lance Brozdowski that was reporting analytics staff. But I've seen others lately, and I feel like they incorporated scouting. Perhaps that was just the vibe I got. But vibes are 90% reality nowadays so that's something. https://t.co/KZCEstdKL6

[Lance Brozdowski @LanceBroz]

Took a stab at this. See thread for sourcing & explanation of discrepancies.

I think only the tails matter: ATH, ARI, ATL, COL are low (not good!). TBR, NYY, NYM, DET, CLE are high (good!).

~8 teams have low visibility into their numbers... 🧵

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

I keep seeing these kinds of posts. The other day we had one of the smallest groups. Today it’s one of the biggest.

And from real sources.

Not sure what to make of it.

[Kyle Glaser @KyleAGlaser]

For my old friends at @BaseballAmerica, I compiled the sizes of each team’s scouting staff.

Note that many teams frequently renowned for their technology and analytics (Dodgers, Rays, Brewers) also have some of the largest scouting staffs in MLB.

https://t.co/Iu4577ReKe

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

My # 33, Yu-Min Lin. A top 100 guy by Baseball Prospectus in’24 because he posted some elite numbers when he first came to the US as a teenager. As he climbed the ladder, he struggled some, as pitchers often do in Amarillo and Reno and dropped off the prospect radar. Classic underrated D’Backs prospect. Still 5+ years young for AAA, pitching in Reno (i.e., the moon) but clicking “late.”

OK fastball, loud delivery, but elite secondaries with great spin rates. Wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the bigs next year.

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

@brendan_cubs In fairness, they seek out high ceiling guys who tend to be injured more. For example, they knew full well Blake Snell might not be healthy for 162. They can afford those risks. Other teams can’t.

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

Super toolsy outfielder who was drafted in June ’25, but Tommy John surgery delayed his start to August ‘26. Flashed in Visalia, and is in the AZ Fall League, with mostly AA and AAA guys.

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

Evaluating DSL guys is weird. They can't sign until they're 16, but they come to agreements to sign years before. It's understandable to be wrong about a 14-year old kid's future.

So even tho Villarroel was almost an afterthought on signing day, he's already jumping off the page with a .985 OPS, the next in a long line of great, often undersized, catchers that the D'Backs are developing.

[Tobey Schulman @tschulmanreport]

Before I roll out my top-10 prospects for each system, I’m going through each org for a 'MiLB Team Of The Year' series.

For the Dbacks, 17-year-old Jhosep Villarroel stood out.

Only DSL bat with a K% of 12% or lower, .500+ OBP, & .450+ SLG. Consistent contact and limited whiff.

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

@dbacksprospectz Seriously!

(Also, I know the reporting was a top prospect, presumably Crisantes, but this logic holds pretty far down. Insert Virahonda, Forbes, Hagaman …)

[Jon Anderson @JonPgh]

Found my first 2027 breakout pick: Lars Nootbaar

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

My # 36 is Connor Foley, a RHP drafted out of Indiana. He got 3rd round money when we drafted him. He is a high ceiling/low floor possible closer who struck out 16 per 9 (!!) this year, which was 14th best in all of the minor leagues for guys with 20+ IP.
https://t.co/IVHBKEPpHD

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

I love these lists, and I love BA, but if your stuff+ model has the Mariners and Braves this bad, it might need to be reconfigured. "Stuff" is hard to measure/quantify, but it seems unlikely that the Mariners went from the universally best pitching development org to the worst.

[Baseball America @BaseballAmerica]

The top farm systems in terms of org-wide Stuff+ scores?

1. Rays
2. Yankees
3. Mets
4. Dodgers
5. Nationals

New farm system Statcast rankings:

https://t.co/gH4eBeNoAB

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

@KyleAGlaser @pspanny I've heard anecdotes about the Dodgers having lots of scouts (showing up where others don't) and the highest paid and presumably best scouts. What are your thoughts on that?

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

Described as “raw and gangly,” by Fangraphs, he is notable for trying to be the first Orthodox Jew to make the big leagues. https://t.co/bXj9Uz2vcw But with his electric potential, his unique background could become more of a footnote than a headline.

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

@ClydeTheGlide28 I’m certain that there’s sooo much going on behind the scenes re Ketel. If we trade him, I’m sure it will be because he forces our hand.

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

This is surprising - I guess we're doing more with less? But it would be nice to see if beefing up the nerd staff helped. It's cheaper than adding to the major league payroll and couldn't hurt.

[Lance Brozdowski @LanceBroz]

Took a stab at this. See thread for sourcing & explanation of discrepancies.

I think only the tails matter: ATH, ARI, ATL, COL are low (not good!). TBR, NYY, NYM, DET, CLE are high (good!).

~8 teams have low visibility into their numbers... 🧵

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

My # 38 - Sawyer Hawks.

Relief pitchers with no pedigree virtually never get ranked, which is weird because they're every bit or more as impactful as any other player. But still, that's how this works.

Having said that, Hawks made Fangraphs preseason list last year because they were too scared he's going to find his way to the big leagues. And he killed it in Hillsboro after that.

[DBacks Factoids @DbacksFactoids]

My # 39 is Paul Schoenfeld, an 8th rounder out of West Virginia.

Prospect ranking is basically pedigree (draft spot) x early success. Schoenfeld has no pedigree - an 8th round college guy who wasn't on BA or Pipeline's pre-draft list (BA goes out to 500). And his limited professional wasn't *that* good (it was pretty good). But watching him, he was electric. So, a bit of a personal cheeseball but whatever.