DeFi Rate

Analytics resource for all things prediction markets, DeFi and crypto

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Election trading volume reached nearly $104 million across four prediction markets in the first 20 days of October, with Texas Senate and control of the House accounting for much of the increase. Polymarket US is catching up.

Kalshi: $79.00M (+142%)
Polymarket US: $23.72M (+203%)
ForecastEx: $590,597 (+129%)
Gemini: $557,829 (+139%)
Total: $103.87 million, up 153% from the same 20-day period in September.

https://t.co/hAH6HlBN3b

[Mick Bransfield @MickBransfield]

Second Circuit hearing scheduled for Tues, Nov 3 (Election Day!) Joint hearing combining 3 appeals:

-Kalshi CT
-Coinbase CT
-Kalshi NY

There *should* be an audio only stream on YouTube, but audio will be available after on circuit court website.

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Prediction markets at the Supreme Court: A speculative look at how a SCOTUS decision in favor of state government officials may affect law enforcement, regulators, prediction market exchange operators, and traders. In this article, we take a look at what if the Supreme Court were to rule sports events are not swaps

Thanks to Linda Goldstein, partner at CM Law for her contribution.
https://t.co/uPDlO7GXh0

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Two companies are challenging Ohio’s crackdown, regulators say, while Gov. Mike DeWine promises enforcement after an Oct. 16 deadline. Polymarket’s case adds a constitutional challenge to the industry’s federal regulation argument.

https://t.co/dHYuRibu43

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has posted its latest regulations concerning the definition of "swaps" under the Commodity Exchange Act. The rules are available for public comment until Nov. 18, 2026.

https://t.co/QKnQNtGfEH

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

@_moelevin We plan to review comments just before closing.

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

The Hyperliquid Policy Center (HPC) filed a comment letter supporting the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, urging the regulator to adopt the rule with five refinements.

Speaking with DeFi Rate, Amir Forouzani, co-founder and CEO of Puffer Labs, noted that the stronger point in Hyperliquid’s letter is that the company focuses on “what comes next.”

“Institutions need clear rules for trading and confidence that those rules remain workable as networks evolve," Forouzani said. "Builders need certainty while developing those networks, too.

"The SEC has an opportunity to connect these pieces and give onchain markets a predictable path from launch to adoption, with clear accountability and investor protections throughout.”

https://t.co/cIRt0tEEit

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Kalshi reached $19.03 billion in weekly contract volume Oct. 5-11. Polymarket US Trade Volume nearly tripled in six weeks.

https://t.co/rkUCJxp9nm

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

The CFTC is seeking public input on spot crypto trading rules as the Clarity Act failed in a Senate vote last month. Major cryptocurrency companies have welcomed this move; however, Congress will "ultimately still [have] to determine how broad that lane should be.”

https://t.co/VPLgBny5pH

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

ProphetX wants to let people trade on how much trading happens on other prediction markets. Three new CFTC filings propose contracts on November trading volume at rival exchanges, with thresholds of $10 billion for Polymarket US, $2 billion for Rothera and $4 billion for DraftKings-affiliated DKeX.

https://t.co/uRAJva2EnV

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Kalshi’s US 500 contract expands its financial derivatives lineup, following Polymarket’s international rollout across stocks, crypto and commodities, but no expiration does not mean no holding costs or liquidation risk.

https://t.co/II2yVhtkoR

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

We took a speculative look at how a decision not to review Kalshi’s cases could affect prediction-market operators, CFTC policy, state gambling laws and congressional lobbying.

https://t.co/XQxZDbGqAl

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Falcons vs. Saints is live, and so are our new game pages, which convert from monitoring odds to live stats on kickoff.

Track the matchup across Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket in one place:

• Live win probabilities
• Prediction-market spread + total
• 24-hour trading volume
• Line movement
• Venue-by-venue prices
Atlanta has moved to 61% in-game, with $4.7M traded over the last 24 hours.
https://t.co/mPtQY2GdrF

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

New product update: NFL weekly boards are now live on DeFi Rate.

Week X gives you every game in one place, with prediction-market trading data from @Kalshi, @Polymarket and Poly US layered on top of the odds.

Dig into:
• Where the money is going
• Biggest trades by matchup
• Volume and trade count
• Line movement through the week
• Player prop activity
• Where trading activity and market odds tell different stories
Then drill into each matchup for the full market view.

https://t.co/X0ih3TUdjJ

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

We pushed a significant upgrade to our prediction market volume category last week. Snapshots, images and CSVs available.

https://t.co/032ZXJDWsE

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

A federal judge granted Kalshi and Coinbase partial injunctions against Illinois, finding state licensing rules likely conflict with federal law. Wagering fees remain under review. The ruling conflicts with a Wisconsin decision now on appeal to the Seventh Circuit.

https://t.co/PiQ6ll5O3w

h/t @WALLACHLEGAL

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has given its approval to Coinbase's application as a derivatives clearing organization. Although this approval does not include certification of any specific markets, especially prediction markets, it does expand Coinbase's ability to clear futures and swaps.

https://t.co/NpHHzyKfqh

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Polymarket’s newly launched 15-minute Bitcoin markets did $91.8M in their first full week in the US, while total Bitcoin volume jumped from just $625K before launch to $101.2M. Volume and trade count both rose about 11.6x, with trade count coming in at roughly 9% of market share for launch. @Polymarket

https://t.co/oQz3T7BRLh

[Coinbase Markets 🛡️ @CoinbaseMarkets]

The CFTC has approved the launch of Coinbase Clearing LLC, our own USDC-native clearinghouse.

Built for 24/7 settlement with USDC collateral, Coinbase Clearing completes our full stack of regulated derivatives infrastructure.

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Trading volume stayed near record levels last week, but the growth looked a bit different. Kalshi still handled most of the trading, while Polymarket US added more new volume than Kalshi and pushed its share of the market higher.

Key highlights ---
Total volume: Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket International combined for approximately $19.46 billion, up 3.9% from $18.72 billion.

Kalshi: Weekly volume increased 2.6% to a record $15.66 billion, while Sunday set another daily high at $3.24 billion.

Polymarket US: Volume jumped 21% to $2.83 billion, increasing its share of the three-platform total from 12.5% to 14.6%.

https://t.co/6AfJfofwil