DeFi Rate

Analytics resource for all things #DeFi and Prediction Markets

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Trump-backed Randy Feenstra entered the Iowa GOP governor primary as an 80% favorite, but underdog Zach Lahn pulled off the upset.

The surprise marks the end of Trump's endorsement winning streak and a rare miss for prediction markets. Story:
https://t.co/RJbuCVtfer

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Traders are backing a Karen Bass vs. Spencer Pratt runoff in the LA Mayor race.

Despite the reality TV star's unlikely surge, prediction markets still see Bass as a 75% favorite to hold onto the office in November.
https://t.co/lYx77InTZD

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

With ballots still being counted, Xavier Becerra & Steve Hilton remain on track to advance from the California governor top-two primary as markets continue to favor Becerra in November.

Prediction markets have been ahead of the polls so far in CA:
https://t.co/JzEjTljB6C

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Crypto perps are coming onshore. @Kalshi has self-certified 20+ new perps including ETH, SOL, LINK & XRP.

Former CFTC Special Counsel Peter Sanchez Guarda told DeFi Rate the agency had to "fit the square peg in the round hole" to make it happen.
https://t.co/xwaa21Qg7J

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

A Polymarket trader says he lost $500K after resolution criteria changed on a $175M MicroStrategy BTC market. Polymarket's rules say market clarifications “cannot change the fundamental intent of the question.”

The UMA Oracle is also under scrutiny👇
https://t.co/oM6tFNkSKr

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

The Democratic lead in the Maine Senate race is narrowing, but still holding around 60% in the wake of a texting scandal and more controversy surrounding Democratic candidate Graham Platner.

Why traders are still leaning blue (at least for now)👇
https://t.co/VEPalRs5dH

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

"Traders do not want ten different platforms. They want one liquid venue with everything in front of them” says Nebula DeFi founder Jason Rindahl.

@HyperliquidX is building just that with perps, prediction markets, and now a Grayscale ETF days from launch👇

https://t.co/1pmyoYnG0x

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Prediction markets see Montana as a likely GOP hold (74% odds), but polls are suggesting Independent candidate Seth Bodnar could make things interesting in November. Are markets are underpricing the Independent in MT?👇

https://t.co/qsQGE1fERX

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

We took a shot at predicting where prediction markets will land on World Cup volume. Our estimates calculate roughly $2.5 billion in trading activity with $1.47-1.93 billion trading on @Kalshi
The current World Cup Winner contract is trending higher than March Madness and will likely reach ~$253 million in volume by the end of the tournament. See more here 👉 https://t.co/g1QcMFvf8z

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

The first US-regulated bitcoin:native perpetual futures are coming to @Kalshi.

"Bringing perps onto a regulated prediction market exchange opens the door to institutional participation that’s been sitting on the sidelines...” —Noah Zingler-Sternig (@Nostroah)

https://t.co/DX2Tjz6eiA

[Noah Zingler-Sternig @Nostroah]

The first crypto perpetual to be launched on a federally regulated exchange has just been approved for @Kalshi to list.

[Noah Zingler-Sternig @Nostroah]

Here is a quick visual on what fees look like between @Kalshi and @RobinhoodApp users (including the new Gold user tier).

Kalshi and Robinhood now use the same fee formula (with different values for the named constants). Robinhood is imposing a fee cap to limit things from becoming more expensive than their original fee structure.

Trading directly on Kalshi is still the cheapest way to be a taker for all Kalshi markets.

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

The latest CA governor polling is converging on what prediction markets have signaled for weeks: a Xavier Becerra vs. Steve Hilton top-two showdown.

Becerra currently has ~68% odds of winning the governorship in November with the primary coming up.👇

https://t.co/5gtEn2OLZC

[Fairplaygov @fairplaygov]

DraftKings Exchange (DKeX) says in a newly-posted CFTC filing that its Market Maker Program will become effective June 8. Virtually all details are confidential. Below are the publicly available fees posted on its website.

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

"Dividing it between sports and non-sports is really not the issue. The issue is whether it’s a true marketplace."
—Former @CFTC chair Chris Giancarlo (@giancarloMKTS) on the differentiation of federally-regulated prediction markets & state-run sportsbooks.

[Isabelle Lee @isabelletanlee]

In his first Bloomberg Crypto appearance, @giancarloMKTS tells @timsteno and me why he thinks prediction markets should not be treated the same way as sportsbooks or casinos. We broke the exclusive of his Jefferies senior advisor appointment last week

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Rothera has filed soccer prediction market contracts with the CFTC as the @RobinhoodApp-backed exchange nears launch.

The filing follows a wave of new sports contract activity from Railbird, Polymarket US & others ahead of the #worldcup

Full story:
https://t.co/ruGgNg9VXx

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

The CFTC is moving to vacate a consent order with @Gemini, saying the 2022 complaint “should not have been filed.”

The news came the same day as the Google insider trading charges & after Winklevoss twins' 2025 lobbying around the CFTC chair fight👇
https://t.co/8yjSD3WLcZ

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

A Google employee was hit with a CFTC civil suit + criminal charges for alleged insider trading on Polymarket — used internal access to Google's 2025 "Year in Search" data to trade on who'd top the list with near-perfect accuracy across 23 contracts. Alleged profit of 1.2M. Now facing fines, restitution & a permanent trading ban.
https://t.co/21GHcsA6Tv

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Prediction markets nailed another MAGA ouster in the Texas Senate GOP runoff, but it could set up a tough November slate for Republicans. @KalshiPolitics

https://t.co/M9VTO2wRvW