asked 50 founders four questions last week.
cost per paying customer. what they pay monthly. months to payback. retention at month 12.
nine could answer all four. the data was in stripe the whole time, they just never did the division.
cut retargeting 60% on a shopify brand. dashboard ROAS dropped, founder panicked.
revenue flat 8 days, then up. real MER went 1.7 to 2.4.
meta was taking credit for people already in cart. moved that budget to cold creative, ended around 45k/mo.
@scaling_rn it will look terrible and it means nothing.
if revenue holds or goes up, the spend was never incremental. if it drops proportionally, it was real and you put it back.
three weeks because the first week is noise. most people panic on day 4 and kill the test.
@scaling_rn holdout. turning it off completely is too blunt, you lose the signal in the noise.
what I do: cut retargeting spend by 50-60% for 3 weeks, keep prospecting budget identical, and watch total revenue and MER only. ignore campaign level ROAS during the test.