What an amazing article! Totally makes sense. We do not have benchmarks that test the capabilities of agents on pure coordination and complementing one another. Emergence from the coordination of experts is the secret towards hyper productivity.
I joined @GoogleDeepMind to develop a research program on the economics of AGI. Today, together with Andrew Koh (@andrewjkoh) and Shane Legg (@ShaneLegg), we are incredibly excited to release The Economics of Intelligence, the first in a series of projects from our group on how AGI will change the economy.
How do capability improvements transform the economy, and when? In this project, we define thresholds of economic capabilities, e.g., minimal AGI, based on how they transform the economy. We then track how the economy–market structure, employment, and wages–changes during the transition across capability regimes.
We have seen exponential increases in what AI agents can do but the broader economy seems almost remarkably unchanged. Part of the reason is that the solo AI agent is the wrong economic object; economic transformation is an equilibrium outcome where organizations compete. Looking at how intelligence functions within organizations, transformation will depend on when two key capability thresholds are crossed: competence (gains on individual skills, e.g., coding, math) and coordination (gains on ability of agents to cooperate and work together).
We show that what economic transformation looks like depends on whether AI becomes supercompetent, supercooperative, or both—the regime of artificial superintelligence (ASI). Tracking this transition shows why the real visible transformation may come from improvements in coordination—a capability most benchmarks don’t yet track. Past a certain threshold, AI capabilities can break the Coasian ceiling on firm size and lead to an economy that looks drastically different than the one we see today.
Two main takeaways:
1. To understand the path of transformation, we should be tracking agentic coordination more closely.
2. The impact of AI will likely show up in wages before market structure or employment.
We are really excited about this paper. Excited to hear people’s thoughts.
Link: https://t.co/9DTGSeKoSA
@zerolevell@jaynitx What makes you think a powerful monitoring agent won’t be able to catch the errors and fix it? Why are you assuming in 5 years any human will be able to outsmart or outwork any super intelligence?
I want AI to replace EVERYONE.
Yes, everyone. Including me.
I don’t want to work. I don’t want you to work either.
I want AI to produce everything we need, robots to do all the physical labor, and the cost of goods and services to collapse toward zero.
The fact that people see this as some kind of dystopian nightmare is hilarious.
You have been conditioned to believe that spending 40 years working is the purpose of your existence.
It’s not.
I want everything automated.
I want everything free.
I want humanity to retire.
🚨 Elon Musk has dropped an unprecedented bombshell—right inside the White House, in front of Donald Trump: 💥🇺🇸
“From now on, you will no longer need to work for any company... I will make sure everyone on Earth enjoys a celebrity-level lifestyle and income!”
Musk is completely challenging the traditional concept of government-provided “Universal Basic Income” (UBI) designed merely for survival, presenting a radical vision of a new form of capitalism.
According to Musk, how will everyone become wealthy? 👇
As AI and robots produce goods and services 24/7 without limits, the overall standard of living for all humanity will skyrocket—as if everyone were earning an astronomical salary.
Musk confidently declares: “Everyone will have access to better healthcare than I personally receive!” Through the combination of superintelligent AI and precision surgical robots, top-tier medical care could become available to everyone at virtually no cost.
AI will handle the thinking, while robots build roads and structures, grow crops, and manufacture products. With forced labor becoming a thing of the past, the phrase “I don't have enough money to buy what I need” could disappear from the human vocabulary entirely!
While 99% of humanity worries that “AI will take their jobs,” Musk envisions a future where an army of autonomous robots will turn every single person into a king—living a life of total ease!
Bookmark this post to follow the transformation that may lie ahead. 📌
Not sure why people think Elon is some supervillain. If you follow his journey closely, he has never done things out of monetary value but out of passion to advance the human species. Genuinely love what he’s doing. An absolute inspiration. 👏
@rationalaussie The human brain is an exceptional machine when it comes to coping. The next few years are going to be really interesting, as we will see a lot more of these mental gymnastics.
@sunghopark20124 Hey Sungho! Nice to meet you. I’m a PhD @ Monash Uni, researching on recursive self improving systems in the contract law domain. The goal to focus on AI safety and alignment and developing a system that can behave like a judge fairly for contract law. Would love to connect!
The coding interview is dead, at least for my team at Anthropic. I've seen enough to know that it no longer provides signal. I removed it from loops this month.
I have a spicy, optimistic take - I think there's an opportunity for junior engineers: https://t.co/PVvpQCbQtK
The amount of people commenting under this post asking, “what” they should focus on, is why the entire concept of jobs is broken. People don’t even know how to follow their own interests. Just keep following safe roadmaps blindly.
On this Kane Ballon d’Or, I have something to say that reflect my point when I talk about football and life. Look at Kane, he’s 33, look at the players around his age Neymar, Pogba, Dybala, Lukaku, amount others. Compare their Journey with Harry Kane. Can you see where I am going?? That’s life. 10 years ago, you won’t actually think Harry Kane will be a ballon d’or winner and Neymar highest finish will be third. Look at his career, till age 30. It’s always about the things he couldn’t win. But today he’s won the highest award in football. That’s also how life is, the journey might be long, might take another route different to others but doesn’t mean you’re late. There’s no late comer for success. Benzema played the most games before winning ballon d’or, Kane has played the second most games, yet it’s not a stat people remember.
And that’s the thing about life, you can spend so much time looking at people around you and wondering why things are not happening for you at the same pace. You see people your age achieving things you are still praying for, people you started with moving ahead of you, and sometimes you begin to question whether you are doing something wrong. But Kane’s story is a reminder that everybody has their own journey. You can be good at what you do, put in the work for years and still have to wait longer than you expected before everything finally comes together.
Imagine if Kane had allowed the things he couldn’t achieve at Tottenham to define his entire career. Imagine if he had started believing that the opportunity to win the biggest trophies had passed him by. Today, we probably wouldn’t be having this conversation the way we are having it. He kept showing up, kept scoring goals, kept improving, and when the opportunity came to take a different route, he took it.
Sometimes, the problem is that we judge our lives based on where we think we should be by a certain age. At 25, you think you should have achieved this. At 30, you think you should have figured everything out. And when life doesn’t happen according to that timeline, you start feeling like you are behind. But behind who? Who decided that everybody must achieve their dreams at the same age?
Kane is 33, and he has just reached a height many people thought he would never reach. That should tell you something. Your story is not finished simply because you haven’t achieved what you wanted to achieve by now. You haven’t failed simply because somebody else got there before you. And you are not late just because your journey is taking longer than you imagined.
Keep working. Keep showing up. Keep becoming better at what you do. You don’t know how your story will end, and you don’t need to have everything figured out today. Sometimes, all you need to do is keep going long enough to see what your life can become.
Harry Kane’s journey is a reminder that you should never be in a hurry to write yourself off. The chapter you are currently in is not necessarily the conclusion of your story.
@jueun_kim_ Nice to meet you too! It is indeed an important problem especially because of the high stakes that come from the law side. Thanks for your good wishes! Wishing you all the best in your work too.
Imagine 5 years from now when we have AIs that are superhuman at all tasks that we humans care about.
At that point, the only thing we will seek from other humans is social connection to satisfy our inborn craving for exchanging stories and gossip around campfire.
For all other activities where efficiency and outcomes matter, there will be an AI that does it better, cheaper and faster which will push us to finding humans a bottleneck in getting what we want.
Right now, functions and social connection comes in a bundle. At a company, you not only get work done but also exchange gossip and practice politics. Similar with conferences, you learn a little and you connect a little. Same with universities.
Soon, these functions will get unbundled. For work, education, governance, advice, AIs will be far superior; while schools, conferences and workplaces will all morph into kinds of playgrounds that we haven’t yet invented.