Buy YES Sell NO

rolling in the Deep Theta.

[Michael | Hypermarkets @itsmichaelluu]

97% probability $SPY crashes at least 10% after June 15.

There's 4 massive reasons $SPY can't avoid it:

1. Large IPOs like $SPCX will trigger sell off.
Major IPOs drain liquidity. The 1999–2000 dot-com IPO wave pulled $100B+ from markets before $SPY crashed 78%.

2. Kevin Warsh hawkish FOMC on June 17
Hawkish Fed surprises trigger immediate selloffs. In June 2022, a surprise 75bps hike sent SPY down 8.4% in 5 days.

3. $MU $ORCL earnings is the peak of market
Semis and enterprise software peak earnings historically signal cycle tops. $MU peaked in June 2018 $SPY followed with a 20% correction by December.

4. Midterm elections for Trump is this year
Midterm years average a 17% $SPY drawdown before Q4 recovery. 2022 saw $SPY drop 25% into October before reversing Trump's 2026 midterms follow the same cycle.

♻️ RESHARE this post and write 1 comment, I'll share with you my $SPY target for the crash.

[Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro]

What the S&P 500 did from 3/30 to 4/17 has only happened once before.

We rallied 12.3% in 13 trading days.

And on day 13 we hit a new all time high.

The only other time this happened (since 1957)?

3/24/2000.

That also happened to be the Dotcom Bubble peak.

[Curry_TW @KotlinerBTC]

$QQQ 我很少看大盤的數據，昨晚有人點名想看QQQ/SPX。沒想到QQQ的波動率和股價存在一個明顯的關係。先看左上角的黃線圖表，這張圖的所有黃色尖峰幾乎都是股價局部谷底，十有八九，即使是規模不大的尖峰，也能對應到一個規模不大的股價dip。但反過來就不成立，黃線的股底未必就是 $QQQ 股價頭部，2025/07/22~2025/10/17可以說是黃線在低點築底狀態，但同一個時期對應的股價是不斷強勢攀升。所以從這張兩年期的波動率趨勢可以說明一件事，若想要長期分批買入 $QQQ ，鎖定隱含波動率急遽升高產生的針狀結構做為買入訊號具有相當高的勝率。此刻的波動 我很少看大盤的數據，昨晚有人點名想看QQQ/SPX。沒想到QQQ的波動率和股價存在一個明顯的關係。先看左上角的黃線圖表，這張圖的所有黃色尖峰幾乎都是股價局部谷底，十有八九，即使是規模不大的尖峰，也能對應到一個規模不大的股價dip。
但反過來就不成立，黃線的股底未必就是 $QQQ 股價頭部，2025/07/22~2025/10/17可以說是黃線在低點築底狀態，但同一個時期對應的股價是不斷強勢攀升。
所以從這張兩年期的波動率趨勢可以說明一件事，若想要長期分批買入 $QQQ ，鎖定隱含波動率急遽升高產生的針狀結構做為買入訊號具有相當高的勝率。
此刻的波動率如圖所示，位置只是比長期平均水準在偏高一些，處於相對冷靜的狀��。
��上角的紅線圖表可以看到，Put/Call波動率差值的下降已經有轉為橫盤的發展的跡象，這意味著追漲的力道暫時緩下來了，尚未轉為看跌，但是對於後續上漲的押注力道已經明顯放緩。
左下角的單日倉位變動圖，可以看到買Put甚至漸漸有回到主流的趨勢，看漲期權的開倉在本周已經相對保守，而看跌期權反而重回交易主導。
多頭暫時歇息是可以理解的，右下角的圖表呈現股價依然遠高於未來一個月到期期權的最大痛點。股價下跌，或是在此橫盤整理，靜待最大痛點追上來都是可能發生的劇本。

[铁柱 @TiezhuCrypto]

听从了朋友的建议，增加了GEX和期权的数据。首批计划覆盖主要指数和美股TOP10。

大家还有什么需求，可以留言！

[TRIGGER TRADES @TriggerTrades]

Every time $SPY tags the upper channel stretching back to the 2009 bottom —

It gets REJECTED.

2011.
2014.
2018.
2022.
2025.

Five touches.
Five rejections.
Zero exceptions.

You know what follows every single one?

Mean reversion to the channel midpoint - at MINIMUM.

2026 just became touch #6.

Number six won't be different.

[ً @trading_axe]

Best trader I know told me that the US and Iran negotiations are purposely being delayed to make Vance’s “negotiation skills” perceived as a miracle.

Make it seem like an IMPOSSIBLE task with no light at the end of the tunnel and THEN Vance is the one who “somehow” establishes peace.

Puts him as the front runner for 2028 elections with a massive schelling point,

And consequently becomes a construct for Musk/Thiel/Sacks/Palantir [you’ve seen Trump shill this already] etc. etc.

PayPal mafia will shill Vance hard for ending the war in a few weeks,

Then we rip everything back BIGLY for Elon to become a trillionaire with SpaceX IPO at the PICOTOP.

Stay bullish.

~ Dr. Axius.

[Trader✨Z007 @z0072024]

纳指ETF的铁血周期：中期选举前100%下跌，你敢赌吗？

如果你持有纳指ETF，现在可能正盯着账户里的浮亏咬牙切齿。

但我要告诉你一个冰冷到骨子里的历史规律：过去100年，美股经历25次中期选举，每次选举之前，纳指，或者说整个美股市场��100%下跌。没有一次例外。

25次，100%。这不是玄学，这是用真金白银堆出来的铁律。

更扎心的是，跌幅在10%以上的有18次。上一次，2022年，纳指ETF直接跌了25%。多少人被洗出去，倒在黎明前？

但故事的另一面，同样惊人。

中期选举之后，美股就像换了剧本。数据显示，选举后三个月，纳指平均涨幅5%；后十二个月，平均涨幅14.8%。这不是小打小闹，这是趋势级别的转折。

为什么？

因为中期选举之前，政策悬而未决，两党互撕，财政预算扯皮，市场最怕的不确定性达到顶峰。机构资金会主动降低风险敞口，哪怕基本面再好，也要先跌为敬。纳指ETF里那些高估值的科技成长股，英伟达、微软、苹果，在这种环境下首当其冲，杀估值毫不手软。

但选举一旦落地，不管谁赢，不确定性消散。市场重新定价，资金回流，被错杀的资产开始修复。过去一百年的规律，从未失手。

你现在要做的，不是恐慌，而是问自己三个问题：

第一，你现在持有的纳指ETF，仓位是否重到让你睡不着觉？如果是，说明你之前没把“选举前必跌”这个历史规律当回事。

第二，你是否有现金储备，在下跌中分批加仓？历史不会骗人，选举后的平均涨幅，足以覆盖选举前的跌幅，还能剩不少。

第三，你有没有勇气，在别人恐惧时贪婪？

纳指ETF不是不能买，而是不能乱买。周期永远是市场最好的朋友。中期选举这个“确定性下跌窗口”，恰恰是理性投资者最该关注的黄金坑。

别等到三个月后纳指涨了5%、一年后涨了15%，才后悔今天没动手。

记住：历史不保证未来，但100%的历史规律，值得你认真对待。

[Miad Maleki @miadmaleki]

8/10 Extremely important topic is the storage clock: Iran has ~50-55M barrels of total onshore oil storage, roughly 60% full. Spare capacity: ~20M barrels. With 1.5M bbl/day of surplus production that normally exports, storage fills in ~13 DAYS. After that, Iran must shut in wells.

Why is this very important: when mature oil wells shut down, bottom water rushes in, a process called water coning. Oil droplets get permanently trapped in rock pores. This oil can never be recovered. Iran's fields already decline 5-8% annually. Forced shut-ins could permanently destroy 300,000-500,000 bbl/day of production capacity, that's $9-15B/year in revenue, gone forever.

[AYi @AYi_AInotes]

Shopify刚放了个大招，绝大多数人估计半年后才会反应过来。

手握3780亿美元年交易额，560万个店铺，Shopify把整个后台的读写权限，全开放给了所有AI Agent， 产品、订单、库存、SEO、图片，想改什么改什么。

他们片��里有个商家只说了一句帮我优化所有产品的SEO，Claude自动更新了32条商品，重写图片描述，设置元数据，还逐一核对了所有改动。

一条指令搞定所有，不用找外包，不用月付200刀买插件，也不用雇人，卧槽真的��吊了(#ﾟДﾟ)

以前一个小Shopify店，每月光插件就要200-500刀，一次SEO审计至少2000刀，雇助理每小时50刀，现在这些全部坍缩成一行指令。

480万个活跃商家，大多管着10到200个商品，以前只能一个个手动改，现在有了Claude Code和MCP协议，每个独立创业者，都相当于拥有了一个五人运营团队。

最狠的是，Shopify自己不做 Agent， 他们搭了一套协议，让所有智能体都能变成Shopify Agent， 这才是真正的平台级布局啊，真的牛逼

[bottomsniper @ddw88523]

$SPY quoting my man @JP_Money_95630 the way market rallied 8% straight without even pulling back and VIX peaked at 32 is not the way a generational bottom forms. You can refer back to recent bear markets n
Most people traded. Two possibilities. Line in sand is 675 instead of 665 200 dma in my view. 🍻 . I have no timing for each path. Stop asking me when please, 🙏

Red path: this is deadcat bounce. The rallied stopped at 6850 and continued the selloff making a new low that will be tested multiple times with VIX over 45. I am not gonna predict the exact bottom. Could be 6000 or 5600.

Green path: this is my preferred path. Market gonna slightly pulls back to 675 after reaching 685-695. Then continue to make a series new ATHs. Minimum 740 I believe. Probably above 800 trapping all the bears DCA shorting the market and induce late bulls trapping market can never go down again. Then crush it down to new low. Probably same target 560-620.

[Financelot @FinanceLancelot]

Nasdaq stocks above their 50 day moving average has been in this descending pattern since June 2025.

What's interesting is during the recent rally it had a huge gap up on Wednesday but stopped perfectly on trend.

Since then it has been reversing away for the last 3 days.
Is this predicting a market top as well?

[Esther & Michael @SuperLuckeee]

SPY sold off exactly 10% to $629 before closing at $680.

The biggest resistance to SPY right now is above $690.

4 catalyst for this month remaining:

1. FOMC on April 29 (JPOW's last press conference
2. Deadline to ceasefire on April 21, 2026
3. Earnings starts next week with NFLX
4. Then TSLA GOOG MSFT AAPL AMZN META week of April 20.

[bwatts  @_bwatts_]

$QQQ is less than 1% away from a $9.28 billion dark pool zone. This is very large for QQQ. This area was tested twice back in February before the 10% flush into the March 30 low. This will be a big test if reached (616.42 - 616.67). I'd expect another rejection with an exception being a major positive catalyst.

The area QQQ is currently trading inside saw two months of rangebound price action (between 587 and 619). Let's hope we don't see a repeat of that.

[Heisenberg @Mr_Derivatives]

My boy Zan called the recent bottom in the $SPX pretty much to the tee. Props.

And now he is saying the local top is in, and we head back down.

👀👀

[Sherlock | DeFi Researcher @Sherlockwhale]

I backtested every Sunday pump above 2% on Bitcoin since 2021 and 90% of the time, it is a trap.

Yesterday Bitcoin pumped 2.6% on a ceasefire headline but if you look at the last 6 years of data then there is a 90% chance of this move getting erased with a red weekly close.

Here is what actually happens after Sunday pumps above 2%.

If Monday closes red after the pump, the week closes red 85% of the time and if Monday drops more than 2%, it gets worse with 90% chances that the weekly candle will be red. In the last 6 months specifically, Sunday pumps above 2% have led to red weekly closes more than 80% of the time regardless of what Monday does.

$67,300 to $69,034, that was Sunday's move. Now here is what Monday needs to do to confirm or kill it:

Monday closes below $69,034 (the open): Base pattern triggers with 85% chance the week closes red.

Monday closes below $67,653 (2% below the open): Strongest version triggers with 90% chance of a red week. This is the level where you know we are breaking below $65K.

Monday closes more than 2.5% above Sunday's high ($71,870): The pump is real and the week closes green 80% of the time. This is the only bullish scenario and anything less than this should not be trusted.

One of these three levels will hit by midnight UTC tonight.

Bookmark this and check it every Monday morning. If Sunday was green by more than 2%, Monday's close will tell you whether the week closes red or green.

[Justin Banks @RealJGBanks]

The weekly 200MA has marked every major buying opportunity of the last 10 years.

• China Black Monday
• 2018 correction
• Covid crash
• 2022 bear market
• Trump tariffs

And $SPY still has not touched it.

That is when the real opportunity starts.