DeFi Rate

Analytics resource for all things #DeFi and Prediction Markets

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

NEW: Kalshi, Crypto-dot-com & @Polymarket US sued Kentucky to block the state's new 14.25% tax, arguing the law is "discriminatory," unconstitutional & conflicts with federal law.

A @Kalshi rep says suing as a coalition "makes for a stronger case."
https://t.co/bi7vE4Jgd2

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Former CFTC chair Gary Gensler said in a Sixth Circuit amicus brief Dodd-Frank never made the CFTC a "nationwide sports betting regulator" and warns that if Kalshi's swap theory is correct, all retail sports betting is illegal.

Not everyone agrees.
https://t.co/UkIN5RduOr

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

ProphetX (@PlayProphetX) has won CFTC approval as a DCM and DCO, clearing a path for the sweepstakes sports operator to shift to offering federally-regulated sports event contracts.

It caps off a 6-month approval process as rivals wait in the CFTC queue:
https://t.co/l94mF06Hf4

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

The CFTC published its prediction market ruling today. The rule doesn't ban sports contracts outright. Instead, it defines "gaming" for the first time under the CEA, sets a multi-factor public interest test that the Commission must weigh before prohibiting any contract, and flags four contract types unlikely to clear that bar.

Full details here: https://t.co/hEVp7afLfb

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

A House hearing exposed broad agreement that digital asset taxation needs reform, from staking rewards to buying a cup of coffee with crypto.

The bigger question: Can lawmakers actually deliver as one Rep says Congress is "probably not yet" prepared:
https://t.co/KfhVVGHk9p

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

From Cristiano Ronaldo tears to presidential photo ops and halftime controversies, prediction markets are increasingly pricing cultural moments beyond final scores and the @FIFAWorldCup winner.

A look at World Cup betting markets on tap for traders:
https://t.co/2JaQS9mD5f

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Jon Ossoff says he’s not running for president, but prediction markets are pricing the possibility.

With Ossoff focused on his 2026 Senate reelection race, his 2028 odds are rising as traders cool on Newsom & look for the next Democratic contender.
https://t.co/tzZYXNp6GD

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

In a Form 8-K filed June 9, DraftKings said annualized consumer volume in its Predictions offering rose 24% month-over-month in May to $1.3 billion, while annualized total volume traded climbed 34% to $3.1 billion.

https://t.co/iLcfVlwjeF

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Global sportsbook operator @bet365 is live in 17 states & just launched a national fantasy app.

Could it be the next sports betting brand to offer event contracts? A source tells us bet365 is still watching the space with no plans on the books.

https://t.co/jzMioL3XPr

[Lydia Beyoud @ElleBeyoud]

The CFTC's proposal to regulate prediction markets should be out soon.

The White House wrapped up its review of the measure on Friday, according to an update on OIRA's website.

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Prediction markets aren't giving up on Graham Platner.

Despite scandals, a tied poll with Susan Collins, and concerns from Democrats, traders still favor Platner to win Maine's Senate race after Tuesday's primary.

Full story:
https://t.co/tyTO1DTIsn

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Spencer Pratt surged in Kalshi odds, briefly priced as a runoff lock. When the votes came in, he fell to third.

Traders quickly repriced: Karen Bass is back at 57% for November, with Nithya Raman now the likely runoff challenger.

What went wrong👇
https://t.co/b1tCCQYUsM

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Kalshi pulled away further in May:
-New record $17.9B monthly volume
-111M transactions vs. Polymarket's 69M
And Polymarket US just set a new weekly volume record as @FIFAWorldCup markets heat up. June could be a massive month for prediction markets⚽

https://t.co/ChUsqVZRl7

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

@vandatanow @Polymarket @Dune @open_meteo We appreciate the feedback!

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Prediction markets show Marco Rubio rapidly closing the gap on JD Vance in the 2028 GOP nomination market, with traders increasingly pricing the race as a two-man contest after recent comments from Trump suggesting a Vance/Rubio combined ticket.

Story:
https://t.co/te36QtbQ5h

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Robinhood is routing World Cup markets through Rothera, its own CFTC-regulated exchange & clearinghouse, shifting from Kalshi.

It comes with lower fees, brings more @RobinhoodApp trading in-house & paves way for broader expansion of event contracts:
https://t.co/ScG0QDGL9O

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

"Prediction markets aggregate the information and opinions of many individuals, weighted by their willingness to back their views with money."
—Dartmouth's Eric Zitzewitz

CFTC says manipulation rules apply. Where does forecasting end & influence begin?
https://t.co/UUbvuRM2oy

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Cycles raised $6.4M to bring privacy-preserving clearing infrastructure on-chain.

“Clearing is a financial superpower...available to large financial institutions…Our goal is to bring that superpower to everyone else." -@cyclesmoney CEO @buchmanster

https://t.co/cd2rannlkO

[DeFi Rate @DeFiRate]

Josh Turek's primary win is fueling Democratic optimism in Iowa with analysts talking about a potential pickup opportunity. But prediction markets are still giving Republicans the edge in the open Senate race (for now). Story:

https://t.co/s8HPvAOQD1