Tokyo 🗼

Ex @TheSpartanGroup | Defi Analyst & Onchain Trading

Follow for daily alpha 🗼

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

Everyone thinks Bitcoin is dying again

But liquidity is quietly setting up the next explosion

This dump isn’t the end, it’s the opportunity

Here’s the real reason we’re falling and how it flips next 👇🧵

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xFinish @megaeth this is scary

[Finish 🏁 @0xFinish]

Only 54 wallets have traded $MEGA in the last 6 HOURS

Guess how many traders, a meme coin on Solana with $150k mcap (100x less) has? 2000+

@megaeth feels completely dead, and it's not even 24 hours since TGE

Don't forget about the Airdrop dump incoming

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xFinish @Official_Upbit @HyperliquidX finally something exciting in this market

[Finish 🏁 @0xFinish]

Why you should lock in on $MEGA TGE in the next 3-4 hours

As discussed, @Official_Upbit announced the listing, which is bullish. I have closed my @HyperliquidX with a nice 20% profit (2x long).

We have basically 2 scenarios:

1. initial dump -> recovery -> price discovery $3B+

2. initial dump -> no buy pressure -> more selling pressure -> price going back to $1B

So all you need to predict is whether people wanna gamble on it, as it recently happened on $CHIP

The thing is that there are always probabilities, and no one knows what's gonna happen. I am up 10k from polymarkte + hl from yesterday.

I have opened a hedge short at $0.2 on my investment size, still holding all NO and YES on Polymarket.

If we go $3B in the next 2-3 days, I win big, if we dump lower, I profit from my short + NOs on Polymarket and make even.

At the end, I don't think $2B FDV is justified at all, but the floating supply is so low that it's irrelevant in the next 48-72 hours.

May $MEGA gods help us

[Finish 🏁 @0xFinish]

nobody is pricing $MEGA TGE correctly

I have completely changed my strategy, here is why:

> $MEGA launches with only 6.8% circulating supply.

Liquid float on day one will be around $10.6M (1/10 of circulating supply, the rest is not actively traded). That's it.

Against this thin book, you have the most anticipated launch of 2026, @coinbase listing, and over $1.5B in public sale commitment.

> As for now, the metrics are weak $200M TVL with AAVE holding 60% of it. @Cbb0fe might account for half of that.

$167M USDM against a $500M KPI target. 5,300 daily active addresses. $16M annualized fees. None of it supports the $2B FDV the premarket has been pricing for weeks.

> Why I expect a pump first:

3 months of mainnet without a token meant zero incentives, zero farming, zero fresh capital. Now token launches, farming starts (2.5% locked over 6-8 months), @coinbase pre-listing confirmed, Binance and Upbit still pending.

ICO holders waited 6 months. They're not in a rush. Echo locked 12mo. Fluffle 50% locked. KPI staking metric-gated.

Thin float plus conviction holders plus potential listing catalysts equals a mechanical pump in the first hours.

> HYPE played out exactly this way.

My positions @HyperliquidX + @Polymarket:

Closed NO >$2B at 71¢. Too easy to breach on a thin book.

Holding NO >$3B at 93¢ and NO >$6B at 98.5¢. Safe yields against tail scenarios.

Scalp long on Hyperliquid at TGE moment, target $0.25-0.30 exit.

YES >$1.5B at 47¢ as primary pump hedge.

Reserved capital for the post-pump short. That's where the real money is.

Thesis in one line:

Every L2 launch in this macro followed the same arc. Starknet, zkSync, Blast, Movement, all down 80-95% from ATH. MEGA may pump higher initially, but the destination is the same.

Don't bet against the first 24 hours. Bet against day 5 onward.

Long the squeeze, sell into euphoria, short the breakdown

This is obviously NFA, just how I am playing this with my own funds.

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xFinish the most accurate thing I have seen in the last days

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xFinish @megaeth this can't be real lmao

[Finish 🏁 @0xFinish]

POV how to fail a launch by @megaeth

- Oct' 25 Get over $1.6B in deposits for $MEGA sale
- Nov' 25 Get over $600m in $MUSD deposit interest
- Bear market hits do nothing
- Launch MEGA Mainnet in February
- Announce $MEGA TGE after 10 apps launched
- $100 M TVL after 3 months (40x less than Base)
- $MUSD at $60m TVL (10x less than initial demand)
- Mega Vault sitting at whopping $1m TVL
- 8 out of 10 protocols generate almost 0 revenue

Do you think $2B FDV is justified?

[Finish 🏁 @0xFinish]

https://t.co/3Te7El5JI5

[Finish 🏁 @0xFinish]

you can still exit $aETH on Llamaswap

~6% haircut is rough though, it was ~1% 2 hours ago

DeFi is staking for 2.5% APY then losing 6%

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xFinish the world is fucked

[Finish 🏁 @0xFinish]

The Oil Market is completely mispriced 🚨

Brent at $90 a barrel is cheap. Fifty days into Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the IEA now calls this the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market, roughly 11 million barrels a day knocked offline, with transit through the strait collapsed from over 20 mb/d pre-crisis to just 3.8 mb/d in early April.

Retail prices look contained. That's an illusion. Only the United States runs a full market pass-through. Gasoline is up 31% and diesel 41% since February 28. Every other major market is suppressing the signal. China imposed its first retail fuel price controls since 2013, with the official adjustment set at roughly half what its pricing mechanism would have dictated.

Japan released 80 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest draw EVER, with Takaichi-era fuel subsidies layered on top. France, Spain, and Italy are running price caps and tax cuts. India raised diesel export duties to protect the domestic supply. European retail looks tame only because diesel futures hit $200 after three US-bound cargoes diverted to Asia.

Look past the pump. Twenty-eight countries are already rationing fuel. Slovenia capped daily consumption at 50 liters per vehicle, the first formal EU rationing in memory. Italy's jet fuel is rationed at seven airports. Ireland has OVER 600 dry petrol stations. Eighteen percent of French stations are out. IEA chief Fatih Birol warned last week that Europe has about six weeks of jet fuel before flight cancellations begin.

Demand is breaking, not just supply. Global oil consumption is contracting 2.3 mb/d year-on-year in April. The IEA now projects 2026 demand to decline by 80 kb/d versus previously expected growth of 730 kb/d, a billion-barrel swing in the outlook in a single month.

Asian petrochemical plants are curtailing operations as feedstock dries up. The ECB is being priced to hike 75 basis points into a contracting economy, reversing the entire easing cycle.

A market digesting any of this would not be trading Brent near $100. It would be pricing the tails. The situation is way worse than it seems, and it feels like S&P and BTC are too mispriced. The environment is max risk-off, and the economy at OIL at $100+ is unsustainable.

[Finish 🏁 @0xFinish]

Been reading through Flare's new proposal, and I think the market is sleeping on what's actually happening here.

The headline is lower inflation. But that's not the interesting part.

The real shift is structural: Flare is lo to build a direct economic link between $XRP activity and FLR token economics. And if you think about where $XRP is heading with institutional adoption, that matters.

Here's the loop:

More XRP gets bridged to Flare as FXRP → more DeFi activity on the network → more fees and MEV generated → more value routed through FIRE → more pressure toward supply reduction on FLR.

That's not a tokenomics tweak. That's a value-capture system.

The thing most people miss, Flare already has real usage. ~150M FXRP minted, ~85% deployed in DeFi, meaningful TVL. The problem was never demand. The problem was that $FLR, like most L1s, didn't clearly capture the value created by that demand.

This proposal is trying to improve exactly that.

What's also worth noting, Flare is one of the first general-purpose L1s trying to internalize MEV at the protocol level. Most chains leak MEV to searchers who dump proceeds and create sell pressure. Flare wants to capture that and route it back into the network. That's functionally eliminating a category of sell pressure while creating buy pressure through buybacks and burns.

The way I see it, if Ripple's institutional rails keep expanding $XRP usage, Flare is positioning itself as the layer where that XRP becomes productive capital. And now with this proposal, more of the value that productivity creates should compound back into FLR instead of leaking out.
XRPFi proved the rails work. This proposal is about making FLR feel the growth.

Not guaranteed, obviously, execution matters, and continued FXRP growth matters. But the structural logic is sound, and I don't think the market has priced in what this economic machine could look like at scale.

More at 👇

[Finish 🏁 @0xFinish]

The ceasefire has been announced, and notice how leaders react

They didn't really dip much during the war, and are now up ~15% in a single day.

Most of the altcoins are massively oversold, and narrative leaders will stay:

$ZEC - privacy
$ZRO - infrastructure
$TAO - AI
$ENA - Stablecoins
$CRV - DEXs
$HYPE - trading

I am DCAing every single day, strong hands will be rewarded

[Finish 🏁 @0xFinish]

The market has been incredibly boring

However, @FlareNetworks has been thriving silently

They have just recently hit the $200m TVL mark and entered the top-20

$FXRP has been a massive success with real DeFi protection

Honestly, very refreshing to see Flare thrive in such a market

[Finish 🏁 @0xFinish]

$BTC has last touched "death" during covid crash

Elites are trying to manipulate it, to accumulate as much as possible

There is no 2nd $BTC, do you understand?

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xFinish @Strategy that's fucked up

[Finish 🏁 @0xFinish]

funny how we touched the @Strategy average and went lower

I am still hedged short from $76k, and I think we will go lower

Unfortunately, things around Iran didn't resolve as fast as we hoped

There is 3 days ultimatum to open the Hormuz Strait, which is still unresolved

We need world peace for the risk assets to strive

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xFinish $BTC accumulation in progress

[Finish 🏁 @0xFinish]

$BTC is trending exactly as planned, $54k is next

Trump just announced a series of massive strikes in Iran, BRENT is at 110 again, +13% in 1 day

While the war progresses, the economy will stagnate, especially the risk assets

But once it's over, $BTC will be the real reserve