Tokyo 🗼

Ex @TheSpartanGroup | Defi Analyst & Onchain Trading

Follow for daily alpha 🗼

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

Everyone thinks Bitcoin is dying again

But liquidity is quietly setting up the next explosion

This dump isn’t the end, it’s the opportunity

Here’s the real reason we’re falling and how it flips next 👇🧵

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xPepesso if September/October brings sustained accumulation, this cycle thesis gets a lot more interesting

[Pepesso @0xPepesso]

🚨 BITCOIN IS SETTING UP A HIGHER LOW BEFORE THE $110,000 PUMP

Price is sitting near $78,000 as buyers defend the $74,000–$77,000 floor

After the recent Fed news, staying above $74,000 gives Bitcoin a chance to build a solid base

Once this sideways move ends, two big levels stand in the way:

A decisive push above $82,219 confirms a weekly trend change, while clearing the $94,256 resistance line clears the runway for a full expansion toward $110,000+

A fall back down to $62.2k is unlikely if buyers keep holding this $74k–$77k support

Watch how price acts as this base forms

Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xPepesso if $77K keeps holding, bears may be donating liquidity for the next leg.

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@LintonWorm does ETH actually need to repeat the old 5,000% move for this thesis to work?

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xPepesso does ETH really need that final liquidity sweep before buyers step back in?

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@LintonWorm one data point, three narratives, zero reason to overtrade the headline

[Pepesso @0xPepesso]

🚨 THE LIQUIDITY VALUATION SPREAD ON BITCOIN IS SURGING

Global fiat expansion has pushed worldwide money supply to historic peaks, yet Bitcoin remains pinned near $77,000

Money supply metrics measure the total volume of currency moving through global financial channels

When central banks flood the system with fresh capital, a portion of that excess capital naturally migrates into hard, fixed-supply assets

While daily correlation can be noisy, historical trends show that hard assets inevitably catch up whenever global liquidity surges

> Central banks expand global paper currency reserves to record levels
> Excess system liquidity begins seeking hard asset protection
> Capital flows into Bitcoin to close the valuation spread

Target expansion trajectory:

$77K -> $100K -> $120K -> $150K ATH

Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xPepesso if global liquidity keeps making new highs while BTC lags, the relative setup gets harder to ignore.

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xPepesso one FOMC wick means nothing if buyers reclaim $75.7K and hold it on the daily.

[Pepesso @0xPepesso]

🚨 BITCOIN TESTS THE $75,700 PIVOT AFTER THE FED RATE HIKE

Bitcoin is holding around $75,745 following the Federal Reserve's rate hike announcement

Two major unfilled price gaps sit directly beneath current price between $66,000 and $75,000

Failing to defend this $75.7k floor signals that the weekly high is in, opening the door for a fast downside move

If post-FOMC volatility triggers selling pressure, the market roadmap unfolds in two stages:

> Break below $75.7k -> initial flush to $72,000–$74,000 gap
> Lose $71k -> deeper drop into the $66,000–$69,000 gap

Key levels to watch:
> Resistance: $83,000 (Previous Lower High)
> Pivot Floor: $75,745 (Post-FOMC Support)
> First Target: $72,000–$74,000
> Second Target: $66,000–$69,000

The next major move depends on whether buyers can hold this $75.7k level after the Fed volatility settles

Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@LintonWorm $485B is the macro dream, but first let the breakout survive its retest.

[Linton Worm (🍏,🪱) @LintonWorm]

🚨 ALTCOIN MARKET CAP BREAKS OUT OF A MULTI-YEAR DOWNTREND

The total altcoin market cap has just confirmed a breakout above its multi-month descending trendline around $200B

Last time this exact monthly breakout triggered in 2023, altcoins experienced a parabolic 9-month expansion

A matching monthly momentum crossover has just confirmed below the chart for only the second time in this cycle

Key structural levels to monitor:

> Breakout Confirmation Zone: $200B–$210B
> Initial Target: $350B
> Macro Objective: $485B+ (9-Month Parabolic Expansion Target)

If buyers maintain acceptance above the broken trendline, historical models suggest the early stages of a massive altseason rally are underway

Follow + notifs on, I will keep you updated

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xPepesso if claims jump above 210K and yields cool off, risk assets could interpret that as policy relief.

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@LintonWorm if $73.8K breaks with acceptance, that whole $58K–$62K spring thesis gets interesting again.

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xPepesso the interesting part is whether $80K–$83K becomes resistance before any deeper liquidity raid

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@LintonWorm BTC running to $82K just to dump back into the old range is peak liquidity theater.

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xPepesso Central banks don't need to surprise much when positioning is already this sensitive.

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@LintonWorm Could that $73.8K deviation be the final shakeout before the next expansion?

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@0xPepesso A wick through the obvious level can tell you more than ten indicators combined.

[Tokyo 🗼 @DefiTokyo]

@LintonWorm $2,547 rejection doesn't automatically mean trend reversal.