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bitcoin has been in an uptrend since the lows of $16k at yearly open of 2023, it has trended up -> consolidated sideways -> trended up again
currently it has been consolidating in a tight range between $58k & $72k for about 3 months
I tweeted around the range highs of $71k that I thought decent spot to derisk, reasoning is that market has levels of supply & demand, or resistance and support
the last daily candle up when the market peaked in mid march is the main resistance capping the market between $71.3k & $73.3k, its an important level because thats when sellers stepped in & there was more supply there then demand
when markets are trading in a range you want to derisk into the range high levels that are established resistance
now, im assuming that this range is bullish consolidation & that if we retest range lows (which is likely after testing range highs & failing) that it will hold and eventually push us to higher prices $100k+
but that is an assumption
if i am wrong on that idea, it is much more difficult to derisk on a break of support in an established range rather than at the highs, especially because if btc sells off its likely that alts selloff harder
i previously thought that majors sideways + memes up would be the trend like last april, but it seems like they are following majors price action as well
so, if you have spot positions, you either have opportunity to derisk some with tight invalidations (buy back when weekly closes are above $71.5k, $4100, $200) or hedge short with some positions
otherwise if we retest range lows you have no capital to bid & if range lows dont hold youre likely already down 30+%
personally i think prices will go much higher end of year and next year, but in hedging past few weeks i am protecting myself against the scenario that I am wrong & also putting myself in a better position to add more risk if people start to panic if we get a bull market pullback of 30% or so on majors
we have not yet broken bullish market structure on bitcoin or eth, partially so on solana daily chart as $160 is pretty key level, but if we were to break market structure on bitcoin for first time that would be first warning signal for market as @TraderMercury talked about the other day
but if I had to guess I dont think prices go much lower than mid-high $50ks, $2600-$2800, $100-$120
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