Dela Trader

Trader since 2019. Backtesting market signals so you don't have to. Posts are not investment advice.

[Oracle @OracleNYSE]

$BAX FDA recall

Early Alert Recall uo-Vent Solution Sets

The FDA has identified this recall as the most serious type

https://t.co/txI8C27juJ

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

Iran has warned Gulf states that any new U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure would trigger retaliatory attacks on their oil, power, water and transportation networks, according to Reuters.

Reuters reports Tehran delivered the message through senior diplomatic contacts with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Pakistan, urging regional partners to pressure President Trump to abandon military action and return to negotiations. The report says Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman subsequently urged Trump to delay strikes and pursue diplomacy, while Saudi Arabia also warned it would respond militarily if its own territory were attacked.

The reporting aligns with Iran's broader strategy throughout the conflict: raising the potential economic cost of escalation by threatening Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping rather than seeking a direct conventional war with the United States.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

NASDAQ NEARS CORRECTION AS AI FEARS GROW

The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.6% Tuesday, putting the index on the verge of a market correction after a 10% drop from its June peak.

Investors are increasingly worried that massive AI spending by Big Tech may not deliver strong returns.

Focus now shifts to earnings from Microsoft, Meta and Amazon, which could determine whether the tech selloff deepens or stabilizes.

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

AI seems to be approaching a dangerous point.

Doesn’t mean it’s all ending but we are at historical extremes both in terms of extension, flows while Token expenditures is falling.

[Z @ZeeContrarian1]

Macro for Dummies, by Dummies

Just six trading days ago, after the Nasdaq had already fallen roughly 8%, quite a few investment banks and well-known investors started raising caution flags on the market.

For instance, firms such as Bank of America and Citigroup, along with investors such as Steve Eisman of “The Big Short” fame, were warning about the risks ahead.

The concerns sounded convincing: no rate cuts, the $SPCX IPO valuation, capital raising concerns around $GOOGL, $META, and $ORCL, and a long list of other “red flags.”

Looking back, that turned out to be the bottom.

Including today’s pre-market action following the signing of a peace deal, the Nasdaq has rallied roughly 6% since then.

Now the response will be: “Well, nobody expected a peace deal.”

Exactly.

If the entire forecasting exercise is just extrapolating today’s conditions into the future, and the future almost never unfolds the way the present looks, what’s the point of doing it in the first place?

The only forecast with a perfect long-term track record is that markets tend to go up over time.

If someone asks what the market will do next week, next month, or after the next macro event, the honest answer is:

“I don’t know.”

The future is always shaped by variables nobody is talking about yet.

Ironically, the people on X who obsess over macro are usually the most clueless participants in the market.

They spend their days repeating assumptions, quoting each other, and recycling whatever happens to be popular on the timeline that week.

Very few have actually outperformed the market. Yet somehow they’re always the most certain about what happens next.

[Bill Ackman @BillAckman]

.@BernieSanders , it is a time to celebrate. @elonmusk has created enormous value for society by building @SpaceX, driving down the cost of rocket launches and creating a global satellite communication network that has brought high speed, low-cost internet and communication access to hundreds of millions and eventually billions of people along with critical advantages for our military and our nation’s defense.

SpaceX and its technologies will cause an acceleration in the growth of wages and wealth creation globally, including in some of the poorest communities in the U.S. and around the world.

Access to low-cost, high speed communications everywhere will allow children around the world to be educated, families to build businesses, and life-saving medical knowledge and care to be available everywhere.

SpaceX will materially bring down the cost of compute, advancing AI and humanity.

Meanwhile, 4,000 SpaceX employees yesterday became millionaires, including hourly wage employees who you claim you are trying to help.

The Elon Musks of the world drive growth, global GDP, and provide access to goods and services at lower cost that would otherwise not exist.

Elon’s nominal trillionaire status is due to his ownership of SpaceX, Tesla, Neuralink, the Boring Company and his other initiatives that have brought new technologies that improve our everyday lives.

Elon is not sitting on a trillion dollar pile of cash, jewelry and gold. He is using his controlling stakes in his companies to advance mankind. Elon’s companies don’t pay dividends. They reinvest all of their capital to accelerate innovation and value creation.

Elon is working 24/7 for all of us. He deserves respect and appreciation, not smears.

Bernie, your socialism would never allow a SpaceX to be built. Socialism has only proven to impoverish mankind and lead to death and destruction.

We need to create the conditions for more SpaceXs to be built, not attack the great entrepreneurs who are helping to advance our country.

[Raoul Pal @RaoulGMI]

Anthropic has been publicly forced to bend the knee to the US government. The ban on Fable and Mythos reads like censorship, and the market will read it as the TAM of the frontier labs collapsing. Instead, I read this as the opposite, as an acceleration event...

The government MUST have first access, because this is The Great Game, the game of nations over the most powerful technology ever discovered, and a technological edge of 30 to 60 days is worth everything.

It's the same edge the labs already exploit internally. You build your next model with your unreleased frontier tech, never with the public one. That private head start is what keeps you accelerating ahead of the competition or at least in line with them.

The US needs that exact advantage now. Before the public, and before the Chinese open source models can copy it. They have no choice. They cannot allow their own technology to be turned against them.

What's being negotiated, in the usual outrageous, hard-ball Trump manner, is the new arrangement:

Anthropic and OpenAI are free market operators and state vassals at the same time. Nobody wants to curtail their growth. The Gov just wants to be Customer Number 1 with privileged access.

This is the East India Company all over again. A private enterprise left free to grow rich and dominant, granted protection and a clear run by the state, on the unspoken condition that it serves the crown's strategic interests first. That charter was the price of the monopoly.

It also sends a message to China and everyone else that US AI is now so advanced the state itself has to control it. They won't, not yet anyway. They just want privileged access, the rest is posturing.

And Anthropic will bend the knee, very soon...

The hidden outcome is the one that matters. The AI firms are now near-explicitly too big to fail, which means the debt funding the capex buildout comes with an implicit state guarantee.

That accelerates the build-out of intelligence. It doesn't curtail it...

Open source accelerates too, because going open ensures no state can intervene in the model itself. Though the same Great Game rules apply there, and the Chinese state will take its own privileged access first.

So the market may wobble, convinced the TAM of AI just collapsed.

The real outcome is an acceleration of intelligence, and a Super Cycle that keeps running.

[Dela Trader @DelaTrader]

@PradeepBonde, you taught @Qullamaggie many/some of the setups that made him highly successful. How have your own setups, models/indicators you use, style changed as a result of interacting with him?

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

FREE TO READ:

The top-10 reasons why oil prices are below $100 a barrel.

1) China, China and China
2) Demand destruction
3) Lots of oil bypassing/leaving the Strait of Hormuz
4) The original oversupply
5) Huge SPR release / commercial stocks draw
6) Refinery flexibility
7) Trump's jawboning
8) Options market development
9) The fog of war is thinner
10) Soaring Americas oil output

https://t.co/ohkxSmCgKV

[Dela Trader @DelaTrader]

@TheShortBear Have you ever tried to run purely Statistical/Quant strategies in Stocks and/or Indexes, and if so, can you please give us a taste of what you learned, incl. what worked/didn’t?

[THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear]

The truth is markets probably knew this was coming eventually given the 38 deals that were about to be finalized.

More important than the headlines will be the reaction in markets over the next days.

It’s also not a coincidence we saw the biggest red days in over a year over the past few days.

The market hates uncertainty more than bad news.

If we see peak aggression and retaliation but certain asset or asset classes that recently panicked don’t budge, be ready for a violent repricing higher on these certain markets.

[Dela Trader @DelaTrader]

$QQQ and Hot IPOs

[Dela Trader @DelaTrader]

bitcoin:native first weekly close below -50% from ATH

[Dela Trader @DelaTrader]

bitcoin:native down 15%+ in a week while already 40%+ below ATH

[Dela Trader @DelaTrader]

$QQQ Opens within 5% of ATH, closes down 4%+ vs prior close

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

Photo posted earlier by President Trump appears to show a rendering of the “Drone Port” being planned for the roof of the White House Ballroom, which Trump has previously said will “Protect Washington”.

[*Walter Bloomberg @DeItaone]

IRAN ADVISER: U.S. CAN’T STOP OUR OIL EXPORTS

A senior Iranian military adviser, Mohsen Rezaei, said the U.S. cannot block Iran’s oil exports, dismissing efforts to restrict shipments.

The comments come as U.S. forces have redirected dozens of vessels under the blockade. Despite mounting storage pressure at home, Iran is seeking alternative routes, including rail shipments to China, to keep exports flowing.

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

With over 84% of the votes counted, Péter Magyar and his centre-right conservative Tisza Party have already far exceeded expectations, securing 138 of 199 total seats in the Hungarian Parliament, providing them a supermajority over Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Christian nationalist far-right Fidesz–KDNP Party Alliance.

[Dela Trader @DelaTrader]

@coolpan967 this AI? @grok

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

President Donald J. Trump today in the Oval Office: “Well, you're going to have - a lot of things are happening. You have Iran, and you have Russia, Ukraine, and you have the Middle East. We have a lot of things going. A lot of problems were here for a long time before I got here. We settled eight wars, and I think we're going to - I think we're doing very well with Ukraine and Russia. For the first time, I'm saying that, you know, we're doing - I think we're going to maybe have some good news.”