Scoop: Prior to President Trump signing the memorandum of understanding with Iran, his advisers were flagging to him for weeks that global oil stockpiles were dwindling and the window to prevent the reserves from falling to critically depleted levels was closing.
Trump yesterday at his press conference in France conceded to that likelihood before he signed the peace deal with Iran.
Story w/@natalieandrews + @alexbward
https://t.co/9R8cGlcasx
This is a short extract from my newsletter emailed to clients earlier today. If you would like to read my newsletters in full, three times a week, you can subscribe via my website https://t.co/YjJTctVocX
Fascinating argument by Bloomberg's top energy analyst Javier Blas 👇: he argues that China effectively saved the world economy during the Iran war by absorbing the brunt of the global oil supply shock on its own, without visible economic damage.
According to his calculations, China "cut its average daily waterborne oil imports by the same amount as the combined oil consumption of Germany, France and the UK."
And, still according to Blas, they "did so without suffering economic harm" because they could rely on many levers: their huge strategic petroleum reserve, a massive surge in EV usage, their remaining coal-fired electricity capacity, and coal-to-chemicals replacing lost feedstocks.
Had China not been ready to absorb that blow, a good argument can be made that the economic damage to the West, and the world at large, would have spiraled far beyond what we saw.
Effectively, China's energy strategy at all levels (petroleum reserves, EVs, etc.) and its ability to withstand huge supply shocks paid off for everyone, not just for them.
It sounds awfully familiar: in 2008 too it was China's stimulus package and continuous buying of US Treasuries that averted a complete breakdown of the global financial system.
So twice in 20 years the country the West loves to present as a "threat" to the global economy effectively saved it from a US-made global economic disaster 🤷
Hillary Clinton says when she was Secretary of State there was “constant” and “relentless” pressure by Prime Minister Netanyahu and then-Defense Minister Ehud Barak to secure U.S. backing for a military strike against Iran.
Clinton recalled hours-long phone calls where Israeli officials used leverage tactics, frequently telling her their "planes are on the tarmac" to imply an imminent, unilateral strike.
Clinton says she would respond to pressure like that with: "Well, good luck."
The New Yorker’s David Remnick asks if she felt the U.S. was being manipulated or "played" by a foreign ally that receives an enormous amount of American aid, Clinton agreed and said it happened "all the time" due to Netanyahu's intense focus on the issue.
Reagan is rolling over in his grave. Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal.
Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive. Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped. This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.
This agreement is far worse than I expected. To reopen the strait— a strait that was open before the war— we and our partners are transferring billions to the autocrats. We get nothing else— no elimination of enriched uranium, missiles, or terrorist support. And to add one final gift, we agree to not help the Iranian people pursue their democratic aspirations. Just incredible.
Wait, is this for real? Trump spent $60 million of our taxpayer funds to host a UFC fight and then is selling UFC coin to line his family’s pockets. The Trump corruption swamp is a mile deep. https://t.co/jUtLu4cTaz