Demian

Lazy but generous... Journaling other people's thoughts on life, crypto market or human stupidity and greed !

"Demian n'est pas demain"... Just a first thought

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

real skill is determined by ability to accept losses and be fluid

making money is easy; keeping it is hard.

when I was starting out as a trader, and it would be time for me to cut positions, I would hesitate:

“but what if we bounce and I can exit at a better price?”

really terrible habit.

1) even if we bounced, I likely still would not cut

2) if every time my positions reach invalidation, I refuse to cut them, I am constantly putting myself at risk of full portfolio meltdown on 100% of trades I take

which means it will happen eventually (and it did)

I believe I’ve shown in recent days that I do not fall victim to those same poor habits in 2025 (via several altcoin posts mentioning trend breakdown and lack of exposure to altcoin market)

my recent post about cutting my Bitcoin long this morning is no different.

I’m not saying I know what happens next—I have never known, and I’m okay with that.

I’m saying I need to do this if I want to survive and keep playing the game moving forward.

in markets, you make your own luck.

much love🖤

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

Perfection is the enemy of greatness.

"there isn't enough transparency on this app"

cool. let's change that.

Trade thesis: absolute strength + relative strength to the rest of the market (hot air rises)

Trade setup:

Trade result:

Reality:

in this thread, the goal is to show you how:

- winning philosophy wins, long-term
- perfection is unnecessary (as well as unachievable)
- opportunity is abundant

so, obviously, I fumbled the bag.

for context: I was adamantly bearish for several weeks leading up to April, before this setup came into fruition

ofcourse, that means I was bearish at the exact bottom; this is a feature for my style of trading markets, not a bug.

the reasoning for being bearish at the bottom is the same reasoning as to why I was bearish for the entirety of the trend on the way into the bottom

I am not Ping; I don't have otherworldly insight to the universe. I merely understand when the chart is headed to the top-right-corner, or the bottom-right-corner -- that is all.

the ability to watch the market selloff without the sudden, impulsive, urge to market-buy stems from the innate belief that, whenever strength is shown: I will have the ability & courage to adapt to the newfound arguments the market has presented and bid.

that's the theory, atleast, and most of the time it is the case as well.

variance exists, and so the reality is: before catching the rally, there are times where I am punished for showing courage too early

leading up to this trade I was coming off of a 3-trade losing streak (important context)

which encompassed a majority of my drawdown for all of those months prior. so when you frame it that way, it's really not all that bad

in this case, even with the 3-trade losing streak, I had managed to mitigate a lot of the drawdown, relatively speaking.

I disallowed myself to echo the perception of 'markets are brutal'; I gave myself the largest of head-starts

yet I still managed to fuck it up, somehow...

after months, and a few scratches, I finally was able to spot an oasis in the market; a whopping majority of coins were still making lower highs, and unable to breakout of key resistances overhead.

Fartcoin placed itself within a spotlight, by breaking out of a month-long range, and reclaiming key trends for the first time in a long time.

it's very easy to say something like:

"well, it's already up 100% in the past week, and you're only just now starting to bid; you are at the bottom of the totem-pole"

but this way of thinking is considered 'losing philosophy' when framed in a trend-trading perspective.

regardless of the percentage move since the bottom, the market is finally doing something different that it had not managed to do throughout the previous 3 months, as we downtrended -90% lower

and once again, I'm not in-sync with the universe; so I don't know when the bottom will be, nor do I criticize myself for not knowing

all I know is: this time has a much greater chance of being 'different' than other times.

this is 'winning-philosophy' from an absolute standpoint, discussing my perspective on Fartcoin in its' own right, without relating to context from the greater market

when we bring in that relative context, the thesis is only reinforced.

here is the market: in the midst of 'peak fear', recession worries, and tariff uncertainty, continuously trading lower

and here is Fartcoin: going up, regardless of all of that.

I even made a post about it, here:

strength is strength, and higher prices lead to higher prices.

the consensus argument (from my perspective) was: 'lol, we're on the brink of a recession and you guys are bidding...Fartcoin?'

which, admittedly, is the punchline of the shitpost above

but market philosophy says to respect strength, shut the fuck up, and bid.

this is how we find ourselves in the outperformers. other market participants should ignore other assets and focus on the ones that are currently accomplishing the very reason as to why they're here (higher). lots of people are talking about Fartcoin - nobody is talking about [insert ticker here].

so my execution reflects that philosophy.

after only a few days, the entire market began selling off once again

when I initially saw the weakness from a local standpoint, I asked myself:

"would I rather hold this position and allow it to potentially be losing-trade #4 in a row, or would I rather take my profits and run?"

I like to think that my decision was heavily-influenced by my performance leading up to that trade

which is something that people don't discuss very often; every decision you make in markets has a perpetual domino-effect, and skews your perspective / alters your positioning for the unforeseeable future.

funnily enough though, I was right.

Fartcoin would go on to trade -10% lower than my entry price. I had managed to escape a roundtrip, and instead profited ~0.6R, chipping away at my recent losses. feels good.

Bitcoin would go on to make a Lower-Low amongst all timeframes (because it was relatively weaker)

yet Fartcoin would hold the general area around my entry as support as a Higher-Low, and spend the next few weeks consolidating, before eventually resuming the uptrend

the caveat was: whilst I refuted a roundtrip or holding the position in drawdown, the stop-loss I had in place would've remained untouched

the trade was still technically valid; I decided to use my discretion to cut it preemptively

discretion is a blessing, and a curse.

the reason I use my discretion is because it is an edge

but that does not mean it's impervious to variance.

so it actually hurt me this time; I would have been better off being a robot and allowing the trade to run until it was technically invalid.

the good thing is: I knew that I was susceptible to that variance before I even made that decision

it's not like it would be the first time that's ever happened to me...

so when it happened, it didn't shock me; nor did it feel like the end of the world

after some weeks Fartcoin broke higher from its' consolidation, leaving me sidelined

at this point, it would have been incredibly easy to sulk about the poor execution from prior

but there's a very specific mindset that, in my humble opinion, every great trader shares in common:

- poor execution is inevitable; I am human, not perfect.

- technically, I was correct; strength is attracting more strength -- silver-lining

- there will be another opportunity later down the line, whether on Fartcoin or another ticker. If I sulk about missing one opportunity I ensure that I'll miss the next as well.

there's no crying in the casino.

although Fartcoin was rallying without me, and although it was technically the strongest coin in the market (and therefore the coin I wanted exposure to most), I couldn't gain an entry

I'm not allowed to suddenly succumb to the same immature habits I once practiced when I initially started trading 7 years ago -- market-buying green candles at highs

nor am I really all that comfortable with 'breakout' style-trades; they've never really been my strong-suit.

so the only thing I could do was wait.

good news is: fartcoin is not the only coin that exists, and even though it was at the top of my watchlist, other coins were finally showing strength at this point.

I decided to bid other altcoin setups that were coming into fruition around that time, which proved to be rewarding.

opportunity is abundant.

additionally, I would spot another trade opportunity on Fartcoin later on,

and I would mess it up, once again...

[CONTINUED]

[Wyckoff Insider @Wyckoff_Insider]

$XRP

HTF accumulation in the making.

[Lucky Chart Ape @luckychartape]

Not gonna lie. This quote cooks
“boxers have strategies, but understanding those strategies doesn’t make you a boxer. Traders have strategies, but understanding those strategies doesn’t make you a trader”.

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

how trading works:

one trader claims that you want to see large volume coming in to support a rally

the rationale: without lots of volume, buyers are likely to be shaken out on the next dip, and the rally will be fully retraced. presumably large volume means large support for the upward move

another trader argues that large volume is actually indicative of limit sellers; you should prefer to see small volume moving the market upwards, as this implies the inability to find willing sellers at current prices; the large volume comes in later at the peak of the move.

so who’s right?

they both are.

in the picture below, do you see a rabbit? or a duck?

it truly does not matter.

just as easily as one can support the argument for seeing a duck, one could dispute for the rabbit

back to our example: there will be times where high-volume reinforces a breakout, yet there will be a similar amount of times where it is proven incorrect after the market fully retraces the move regardless of that 'high-volume' signature

as long as you always see things that way, the market will be kind enough to give you victories in order to overcompensate for the times where the other perspective prevailed, and vice versa.

this is also why debating about TA is the most fruitless endeavor on the planet, similar to arguing about a rabbit or duck in that graphic above. it's silly.

you should be trading asymmetrically, where risk is capped but reward is unlimited; this means as long as proper risk management is in place, both perspectives are profitable.

so it’s not a matter of ‘rabbit or duck’,

or 'small volume vs. large volume',

it’s a matter of surviving long enough to see the times where your perspective is rewarded.

consistency, along with risk management, is key.

and the debate of 'who’s right?' is the very reason why the market continues to exist today

when I deeply understood this, I was finally able to detach from the anxiety of variance—short term outcomes that lead to drawdown

you allow yourself to see markets for what they truly are:

a luxury; a tool that we get to utilize to extract wealth, and therefore, freedom.

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

before today, I had taken 1 trade in the past ~7 weeks

it was a cheeky scalp long position on $SOL at HTF support, just looking for a quick relief-bounce

I sold the ‘Trump stockpile announcement’ after price was ~30% higher, and went back to doing absolutely nothing

I was berated for ‘midcurving’ / ‘selling too early’ (which is true, price went another 15% higher)

but 24hrs later $SOL made a lower low

I’m not smarter nor more superior than anyone reading this—I will never claim to be

patience and discipline is my greatest (and only) edge

I simply trade the market on my own timeline, using my own thoughts, unapologetically.

you should do the same.

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

in an uptrend the market tests your courage;

in a downtrend it tests your patience.

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

I urge you to stop thinking in terms of ‘bull market’ and ‘bear market’

by the time the market has been clearly defined as either, you’re already too late

there are uptrends and downtrends.

much better off trading what’s in front of you, and using higher timeframes as context.

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

secret that nobody tells you

WHEN to bid, is often more important than WHERE to bid.

attempting to buy the bottom typically creates some trauma due to watching price retrace lower several times

but even then, if you manage to buy the bottom: you'll likely have to endure a period of sustained chop / fakeouts before any significant rally

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

one thing I’ve come to realize as a trader:

if I allow myself to care about every 3% move, I’ll miss the 50% move.

tricky game we play.

[ZERO IKA 🗡️ @IamZeroIka]

There’s a strength in silence that the world often overlooks, a quiet force that moves beneath the surface, unnoticed by those who only value the loud and the obvious.

We live in a world that prizes noise, opinions shouted like thunder, achievements broadcasted like fireworks, success paraded for all to see.

But real growth doesn’t announce itself with flashes of light or bursts of sound.

It grows slowly, like a seed pushing through the earth, unnoticed at first, yet determined to break through to the surface.

It happens in the stillness between breaths, in the space where the noise of the world can’t reach.

Growth happens in those moments when you continue, even when no one is watching.

When you’re alone with your thoughts, and the doubts creep in, questioning if any of it matters.

It’s in those quiet hours when the world sleeps and the only sound is the rhythm of your own heartbeat.

True progress is like the roots of a tree, they grow deep into the soil, unseen, but without them, the tree cannot stand.

No one sees the work that happens underground, yet it’s the most vital part of the tree’s strength.

In a world that values the external, the loud, and the immediate, there’s a certain power in choosing to remain quiet, in choosing to show up when no one is applauding.

It’s not a weakness, it’s resilience.

It’s the unspoken commitment to your own growth, to your own journey, without the need for external validation.

So trust in that stillness.

Trust that the quiet moments are where the most important work is happening, even if you can’t always see it.

For in the silence, you’re not just waiting, you’re transforming.

The loudest changes often begin in the most subtle, silent moments, and in time, they will echo through every part of your life.

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

stop calling bottom

call your mother.

[CryptoAmsterdam @damskotrades]

Seriously though, clear your mind of negativity and portfolio ATH flashbacks.

Many mistakes were made, but most start making the next mistake already.

Eyes forward.

This period, Bitcoin’s first consolidation into new highs, is historically the roughest part of every cycle.

The divergence between Altcoins and Bitcoin is at its peak (Bitcoin dominance cycle high).

It feels late in the cycle, yet money hasn’t flowed into high/mid/low caps, only into Bitcoin and some majors, while most here are positioned in high/mid/low caps.

So far, the metrics (Bitcoin price vs. dominance and money flow) are still in line with past cycles. But as always, this is a painful phase where people lose hope in their Altcoins.

This cycle feels worse, not because the metrics differ, but due to years of Altcoin dilution—everything and everyone tokenized. Picking the right tokens and sectors is harder, and meme coins dominating this cycle have made it even tougher.

Overall: Super negative sentiment and many mistakes were made.

> Not holding Bitcoin
> Not betting on Majors
> Not betting on the sectors getting attention (memes/solana/socialfi/ai)
> Even when betting correctly (e.g., Solana), not holding the majority in Solana but instead playing hyped beta meme plays that already did 1000x
> Not taking profit

Many know their mistakes but immediately move on to making new ones.

New mistakes:
Right now, people are drowning in negativity, blaming others (memes, pumpdotfun, Trump, tariffs, cabal), torturing themselves with net worth ATH thoughts, and coping by turning hilariously bearish.

> Negativity & blame block you from learning from mistakes.
> Instead of fixating on ATH net worth—an irrelevant number—focus on printing higher lows cycle after cycle.
> Becoming hilariously bearish distorts your market view, making you miss the next opportunity.

Position yourself so you're okay with both outcomes; no matter how much you're down or up, or what you think will be next, start fixing your positioning right now.

> Forget your portfolio ATH—it’s noise.
> Focus on stacking portfolio higher lows—they compound over time.
> Stay open to different scenarios and look for an opportunity in each. Have a plan for every scenario (trigger/entry/etc)

From here, I still believe we’re in a bull market. If we reclaim this level, we match previous cycles metric-wise, and I think Bitcoin dominance could start dropping.

But if we start accepting below our lows here, the probability of this being a deviation drops (we could still reclaim it; another scenario to take in mind), and we could see a mini cycle lower—within the larger cycle—towards previous ATH (or slightly above/below).

That would take time and bring more downside, but again—have a plan. If we bottom there, another major opportunity will present itself.

The only way to be ready for the next opportunity is to stay fresh, clear your mind, don't run out of funds, stay positive, and focus on higher lows.

Stay open to multiple scenarios and have a clear plan: what shifts probability, what’s the trigger, and how to position.

Stay positive, take it slow (!), and don't run out of money.

[Cred @CryptoCred]

Market goes up - Don’t chase, wait for a pullback

Market goes sideways - Don’t diddle in the middle, wait for range to resolve

Market goes down - Don’t knife catch, wait for reclaim

Somebody please help me I haven’t taken a trade since 2017

[Mercury @TraderMercury]

$BTC just broke Weekly Market Structure for only the second time in 2 years.

story time:

in June 2024, when we put in a Lower High on the Weekly chart, I was quick to acknowledge it

after lower (but still high) timeframe trends broke down, I assumed we had seen the extent of the rally and, in hindsight, made a Lower High on the weekly. this happened around $66k.

there's nothing spectacular about this analysis by any means; in fact, it's very bland and seemingly too simple / generic

so the rebuttal that angry reply-guys took on were:

- "Nobody cares that much about the Weekly chart"

- "You call yourself a trader, but you don't even know basic market structure?"

- "Atleast wait for a weekly candle close below the range before you start doomposting"

I wish I were making this up.

After 3 months of downwards-slanted price action, and a max drawdown of -30% since that time, we finally managed to break the trend once again

this time, a Bullish Market Structure shift on the Weekly in the form of a Higher Low

In September, just under $60k, I began bullposting like a maniac, expressing my optimism and stance that the market was finally ready to rip to new ATHs

the angry reply-guys had their fun once again, and provided a rebuttal:

- "don't you see that we're still making Lower Highs on the Weekly?"

hopefully you see the irony in that.

believe it or not, the best way to be prepared for the future is to acknowledge what's happening here today, objectively.

because truthfully, I did not anticipate a Higher Low in September—this is not a post to claim I'm never wrong or that you should not fade me

I actually anticipated a Lower Low; I was calling for a push below $50k, and I honestly thought 3 months of downtrend was not sufficient enough in terms of pain caused before bullmarket resumption

but the fact that I was also the person calling for Lower Lows for the 3 months prior, allowed me the grace to adapt fluidly to whatever happened next

so when the market began showing significant strength, for the first time in 3 months, I was quick to acknowledge it, and execute

I was not traumatized by the Lower Highs; the market had failed to lull me into complacency with whatever regime it was currently in at the time—bullish or bearish

I remained fluid. I relied on my ability to adapt.

Hopefully you've found this post enlightening.
Much love🖤

[FilippoPalizzi @FilippoPalizzi]

USDT.D / Market Update:

USDT.D filled the 2D BB and BTC grabbed liquidity from below the range, while not closing under it on the daily TF. At the same time, we are seeing a lot of FUD in the media and uncertainty on CX, with the fear and greed index being back at extreme lows. Also, the SEC has just closed investigations into Uniswap, Openocean, Coinbase etc...

Given these observations and an invalidation begin very close, I added to spot buys from Feb 03 and took some longs with touch of the 2D BB. That being said, the days of being fully exposed are long over, the risk I'm willing to take is very limited.

[Cold Blooded Shiller @ColdBloodShill]

The current state of the market is poor.

I wouldn’t be rushing to add to spot or to jam large positions.

You can play reversions or counter trend or aim for positioning for where the strength is (the downside)

We have an environment where the participants are tired, angry and disillusioned with how crypto has progressed and evolved.

Although these feelings have been brewing for a while with the saturation of memes etc, the action and developments in 2025 have only added to that and put the frustration towards a climax.

We’re also faced with the overhanging issue of the indexes looking their weakest in several months, and without any “major” downside being experienced yet.

The psychology and attitude in crypto at the moment feels worthy of bottom calling. But with the tradfi grey clouds hanging over us it may be a while before we begin to feel comfortable again.

The cleanse was probably needed in all honesty, but it’s a very difficult time for people, financially and from a psychology and mindset view.

After these major moves we expect consolidation or chop leading to CONTINUATION.

There’s usually no rush to throw capital into markets in these conditions.

My social media break came at the right time but I wanted to write something of an overview to the current state of the market.

I hope you’re all doing OK, it’s been rough and unfortunately because of the TradFi situation I can see a quick reversal. So the anger and frustration maybe hasn’t climaxed but this time because of the PA vs the way crypto has changed.

TradFi remains the focus for me as well as HTF crypto.

The waters have cleansed, may continue to cleanse, but the industry will move forwards, adapt again, streamline and become stronger as a result.

Regardless of everything that’s happened, $BTC is still trading at $90k.

That was simply a bullish hopium dream less than 2 years ago.

[Aporia @0xaporia]

Poker players grasp that they’re dealt a fixed hand and operate in a controlled environment, so they accept variance as part of the game.

It allows them to fold strategically and avoid the trap of forcing action when odds or context are unfavorable. That restraint—knowing you don’t need to play every hand—is a massive advantage over people who start out with trading. Novice traders often conflate constant activity with progress. Poker players know this not to be true.