The US Constitution was the most important political innovation ever, but it's missing two important things:
1) A cap on the growth of government spending
2) A requirement for hard-backed currency
Without them, every democracy drifts toward more debt and eventual loss of reserve currency status (see The Changing World Order). The US is $39T in debt, and adding $1T roughly every 100 days, with interest payments now exceeding the defense budget. There is no mechanism to stop it.
Politicians get elected by promising free stuff using other people's money. Some voters get a benefit today, while the negative impact of the spending goes to future generations who can't vote yet. The incentive structure is broken.
What fixes it? A new constitution somewhere on the frontier (Mars, special economic zones, cyberspace), an amendment that aligns incentives in the current system (politically challenging), or hyper economic growth (AI + robotics + crypto) to outpace inflation.
My keynote at BFC in NYC on the state of the $BTC market, how this bear market sets the stage for the next bull, and Metaplanet’s vision to massively grow adoption in Japan & abroad.
JUST IN: MICHAEL SAYLOR JUST ABSOLUTELY DESTROYED THE $STRC FUD
"IF #BITCOIN GOES UP ZERO PERCENT FOR THE NEXT 40 YEARS, WE CAN STILL PAY THE DIVIDENDS"
IF BTC GOES UP JUST 3% A YEAR "WE CAN PAY THE DIVIDENDS FOREVER”
THE MACHINE IS UNBREAKABLE
FUD IS DEAD. HODL ✊🔥
🚨BREAKING:
COINBASE CEO BRIAN ARMSTRONG SAYS MAJOR U.S. BANKS ARE TRYING TO UNDERMINE PRESIDENT TRUMP'S CRYPTO AGENDA
HE CLAIMS THEY'RE PROTECTING THEIR PROFITS AT THE EXPENSE OF EVERYDAY AMERICANS
I spoke with @AviFelman about:
- why he sold all of his bitcoin
- the AI trade
- memory stock boom
- financialization of everyday life
- current biotech positions
- defense tech
- rare earth minerals
- psychology of trading volatile markets
YouTube: https://t.co/dRblsbSWnN
Spotify: https://t.co/EF7cZwr3KB
Apple: https://t.co/flbbBzcdyw
TIMESTAMPS:
0:00 - Intro
1:03 - Why he sold all his bitcoin & crypto
6:52 - The Hyperliquid thesis & the broken social contract
20:01 - What would make him buy bitcoin again?
21:58 - Strategy + STRC & how to gain an edge in the markets
33:40 - What comes after the memory stock boom?
37:58 - Biotech, defense, & rare earth minerals
39:29 - Robostrategy, private markets & NAV premiums
44:08 - Why index fund returns may be lower going forward
55:40 - Contrarian investing & spotting a bubble
1:07:44 - Meme stocks, retail & future outlook
1:13:25 - The 1000x Podcast
Crypto sentiment is at its worst level since the FTX collapse; the RSI is at an all-time low, Google searches are down, and the fear and greed index is screaming danger, so I sat down with my friend Tom Lee (@fundstrat), Fundstrat's (@FundstratCap) chief strategist and Bitmain's CEO, to get his honest take on where Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the entire crypto market go from here. If you're sitting on unrealized losses right now and wondering whether to hold or fold, this is the conversation you need to hear.
Watch/Listen on X, YouTube, and Spotify.
Timestamps
0:00 Tom Lee Introduction
1:12 Is capital being sucked out of crypto into AI?
3:05 Is Bitcoin in a 4-year cycle?
6:58 Tom Lee on Ethereum: "Price is lagging fundamentals."
8:55 Tom Lee: "AI agents might become wealthier than us."
9:46 Is Tom Lee worried about Quantum resistance in Bitcoin?
11:22 Anthony: "Michael Saylor has become the Bitcoin narrative."
14:35 Anthony's Bitmine bull vs bear case
18:21 Post-FTX conviction: Bitcoin went from $15K to $126K, what does that teach you?
21:47 Tom Lee: These are dark days, but July is a new month
JUST IN: 🇧🇷 Brazil public company OranjeBTC bought 74 BTC this past week for $4.9 million, bringing their total to 3,896 BTC 👀
They lead Latin America companies in public Bitcoin holdings 🚀
Strategy announces a Digital Credit Capital Framework designed to strengthen Digital Credit, enhance liquidity, preserve long-term Bitcoin exposure, and support long-term value creation. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/AUoUCtem53
Strategy announces a Digital Credit Capital Framework designed to strengthen Digital Credit, enhance liquidity, preserve long-term Bitcoin exposure, and support long-term value creation. $MSTR $STRC
https://t.co/P770rd7fva
$36 BILLION SOFI ANNOUNCES IT WILL BE THE 1st US BANK TO LAUNCH REMITTANCES ON THE #BITCOIN LIGHTNING NETWORK
THE WORLD’S LARGEST FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS ARE BUILDING ON BTC
IT'S HAPPENING 🔥
JUST IN: BILLIONAIRE MIKE NOVOGRATZ JUST SAID THE FUD AGAINST MICHAEL SAYLOR IS TOTALLY AND COMPLETELY FALSE
STRATEGY IS NOT GOING TO BE A "FORCED SELLER OF #BITCOIN OR $MSTR ANYTIME SOON"
SAYLOR AND STRATEGY HAVE "PLENTY OF CASH TO PAY HIS DIVIDENDS" FOR YEARS
"THE MARKET DOESN'T UNDERSTAND THAT HE CAN JUST SIT AND DO NOTHING AND BE FINE"
DON'T BELIEVE THE FUD. HODL 🚀
Tokenized stocks are a win for everyone.
For people that already hold stocks, it makes them more useful - much faster to send, trade 24/7, etc.
But there are also lots of people in the world that don’t have easy access to US stocks. In a lot of countries, wealthy people may be able to get a brokerage, but ~4B people in the world don’t have ways to access US investments, so they’re stuck holding cash and low quality investments. Tokenized stocks will change this by opening up the best markets to the world.
When I gave this speech in October 2022, Bitcoin traded near $20,000, Strategy held 130,000 BTC worth about $2.6 billion, and $MSTR was ~$24 split-adjusted. Weeks later, after Bitcoin fell below $16,000, our debt exceeded the combined value of our BTC and cash reserves by ~$300 million, and $MSTR fell into the $13 range by year-end.
We stayed focused, strengthened the company, and executed our strategy. Since then, Strategy has raised over $60 billion of additional capital and invested it in Bitcoin, adding more than 716,000 BTC. Today, our BTC and USD reserves exceed debt by ~$48 billion. Thank you to everyone who believed, endured, and took the long view.
Strategy has acquired 1,587 BTC for $100 million to increase our $BTC Reserve to ₿846,842. We have also increased our USD Reserve by $100 million to $1.1 billion. $MSTR $STRC https://t.co/27PYXJN7GD
My conversation with @scottmelker on @YahooFinance on @Strategy, the largest holder of Bitcoin in the world, why $GOOG and $MSTR use preferred equity, paying $STRC dividends, buying and selling $BTC, and $MSTR performance.